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Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.


wdrag
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Just now, LibertyBell said:

yall who are complaining about Jan 2015 just be glad it wasn't Mar 2001...the other thing about 2014-15 was that it ended being a historic season even with that slight bust and with how February and March went, I'd pretty much forgotten about that January storm.

 

I only had one decent storm that whole winter, in March. The rest were 3-5, with one around 6. And many of them mixed. But after the last 3 years....

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4 minutes ago, sferic said:

Walt, good morning do you have a link for the graphic of Latest 06z/31 GGEM snowfall. Impressive! 06z/31 EC ( hard to discern) Thanks

Got to accumulations and change to snow, zr etc and watch your end time, Lots of flex in the menu.

 

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&map=na&mod=gemglb

 

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2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

I only had one decent storm that whole winter, in March. The rest were 3-5, with one around 6. And many of them mixed. But after the last 3 years....

I remember you got royally screwed that year even with how cold it was, the storms mostly tracked east of you.  That March one was actually the one I liked the most, that storm was a long conveyor belt of snow!  The other thing I remember was that even that late in the season the SST were so cold we were getting freezing drizzle on an east wind lol...SST was 31, never seen that before!  That was thanks to the -10 Feb we had, including a single digit reading on the last day of Feb (one day away from it being in March, which I'd also never experienced before!)

 

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14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

thats awful and I saw that it could reach 60 mph- that puts it in the Boxing Daty 2010 range, Walt!

This is a dangerous life threatening storm. See the purples in the WSSI posted earlier...also that does not take into account coastal flooding, especially the Monday evening high tide cycles when access may not be possible for 4-6 hours (2-3 either side of hi tide). 

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19 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Life has been paused since March 13. haha. No rush to the local train station on Tuesday I can assure you

Don't tear your rotator cuff... hope you have a plowing service or snow blower (multi times to keep up with 3 hour half foot accumulation in some areas). 

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2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Love epic weather battles in this case strong east wind pounding into dry artic air. 

 

4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Love epic weather battles in this case strong east wind pounding into dry artic air. 

yeah the historic ones are like this, it's usually the overrunning that gives the highest snowfall amounts not the actual coastal low

 

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21 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

Reports of some snow already in DC/MD area and radar showing some returns up to C NJ (maybe some Virga). Perhaps an earlier start time is on the table?

The HRRR has 22-23Z start in NYC, the 3km NAM is 02Z because it clearly sees that typical dry push on the NE flow that comes down from New England into the metro.  That same push doesn’t usually funnel as effectively west of Newark or put across LI so those areas can often start snowing earlier and also see heavier rates earlier as they’ll saturate faster 

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6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The HRRR has 22-23Z start in NYC, the 3km NAM is 02Z because it clearly sees that typical dry push on the NE flow that comes down from New England into the metro.  That same push doesn’t usually funnel as effectively west of Newark or put across LI so those areas can often start snowing earlier and also see heavier rates earlier as they’ll saturate faster 

Yes LI looks to start snowing first and get massive rates which is probably why they get similar totals even if they changeover first 

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Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Good ratios I’m still skeptical on a Miller B the heavy banding makes it north of I84 but a very long duration snow event up there

Yeah I don’t expect much more than maybe 4-5” to be OTG by tomorrow afternoon. Tomorrow night is the real show here. I’m planning to clear whatever is on the ground at or around noon tomorrow so the job on Tuesday morning can be at least somewhat easier.

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