Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.

[SleetStormNJ]

7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Guaranteed that snow Tuesday has some areas of decent rates in it.  It won’t be 1 plus an hour but typically those areas even in a system undergoing occlusion end up a bit better than modeled a lot of the time 

I will say a lot of our big ones that were Miller Bs tend to have a signature of consistent/longer snow like this.  (Corrected - Miller Bs).  Remember Jan 2005 as an example for the North Jersey crowd.

[jm1220]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Wow still snowing

Good, an improvement from that model was all I needed to see. Would be best if the 700mb low ticked east a little more but there's time for that. 

[USCG RS]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Good, an improvement from that model was all I needed to see. Would be best if the 700mb low ticked east a little more but there's time for that. 

LI may be lining up for a heck of a hit... 

I may need to get some crow to cook. 

[jm1220]

Way better than the last 2 RGEM runs. DC/Baltimore won't be happy but I can't think of a miller B like this which jackpotted that region or any miller B for that matter. 

[SnowGoose69]

This continues to look like 1983 in a 2021 climate.  The evolution of the storm itself isn’t really close to 83 at all but that easterly inflow jet is.  

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, USCG RS said:

LI may be lining up for a heck of a hit... 

I may need to get some crow to cook. 

I might run out of shoes after I have to eat them all.  

[Allsnow]

Wow RGEM!!!

[jm1220]

And it's obviously way overdone with that heavy snow area in E PA. It'll be a great place to be but there won't be 47" in Allentown.  

It's typical in miller Bs that the development is a little delayed in the end and more progressive. Usually that burns NYC and benefits Boston but this time it's exactly what we need. 

[rclab]

21 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

Anthony's a met in his own mind.... 

In our forums, thankfully, he’s in good company. As always ...

[Snowlover11]

what type of verification percent does the rgem have? those totals are insane lol.

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, jm1220 said:

And it's obviously way overdone with that heavy snow area in E PA. It'll be a great place to be but there won't be 47" in Allentown.  

It's typical in miller Bs that the development is a little delayed in the end and more progressive. Usually that burns NYC and benefits Boston but this time it's exactly what we need. 

See my post about 1983...similar type setup with that east inflow and Allentown saw 5 inches an hour and 15 in 4 hours I think 

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Way better than the last 2 RGEM runs. DC/Baltimore won't be happy but I can't think of a miller B like this which jackpotted that region or any miller B for that matter. 

Lol 46"+

I'm gonna have to sell that. 

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Way better than the last 2 RGEM runs. DC/Baltimore won't be happy but I can't think of a miller B like this which jackpotted that region or any miller B for that matter. 

LOL I’m not quite buying the 4 foot totals though in eastern PA

[Allsnow]

Boston 1 NYC 20 on the RGEM 

[hudsonvalley21]

[SleetStormNJ]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

This continues to look like 1983 in a 2021 climate.  The evolution of the storm itself isn’t really close to 83 at all but that easterly inflow jet is.  

I'm impressed with the continued moisture transport/frontogenesis features - somebody is going to get clobbered.

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Boston 1 NYC 20 on the RGEM 

LOL.  That’s like 12/30/00 again 

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

This continues to look like 1983 in a 2021 climate.  The evolution of the storm itself isn’t really close to 83 at all but that easterly inflow jet is.  

I know the NAM's the NAM but that 700mb map is absolutely classic to wreck 90-95% of us-tremendous lift and tons of moisture on that easterly jet. And it isn't moving all that fast like these front end bursts often do such as 12/17's. 

[USCG RS]

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

This continues to look like 1983 in a 2021 climate.  The evolution of the storm itself isn’t really close to 83 at all but that easterly inflow jet is.  

That crippled nyc and left persons stranded on highways. 

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Boston 1 NYC 20 on the RGEM 

RGEM probably isn't done correcting. Most models at least give them 5-6" or so on the front end burst when it reaches them. The easterly flow and maturing low is a pitfall for them this time though. Miller B's don't normally max out on this area (at least west of Suffolk County). Would be sad and somewhat hilarious if NYC catches up to them in seasonal snow. They have 23" now and NYC has 10.6. 

[HVSnowLover]

That’s on 10:1 ratios I’d love to see the kuchera maps on rgem for kicks and giggles since I’m sure ratios will be higher in PA than 10:1

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, USCG RS said:

That crippled nyc and left persons stranded on highways. 

The forecast was 3-6 I think.  The problem was it was a Friday night preceding a 3 day weekend so many people were out and also many didn’t leave work early.  That was a ground breaking event for the models though because when the 00Z runs came in that night they initialized and caught the busting forecast which was the first case really ever where models in the middle of the storm adjusted for a significant error 

[jm1220]

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

That’s on 10:1 ratios I’d love to see the kuchera maps on rgem for kicks and giggles since I’m sure ratios will be higher in PA than 10:1

 

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

 

Who’s headed to Allentown? 

[uncle W]

the March 58 storm was almost a two day event...temps were 31-33 throughout the storm...

[jm1220]

Not sure how many follow the ICON or how good it is but it looked really tucked with rain at some point past NYC. 

[Hoth]

6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

LOL.  That’s like 12/30/00 again 

Or the late Feb 2010 storm that nailed you guys.

[jm1220]

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Who’s headed to Allentown? 

Billy Joel - Allentown (Official Video) - YouTube

[USCG RS]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Not sure how many follow the ICON or how good it is but it looked really tucked with rain at some point past NYC. 

ICON is as good as a pop icon. Looks pretty but not much too it. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Lol 46"+

I'm gonna have to sell that. 

Using Kuchera it was 55, lol.