Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.

[kat5hurricane]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

For the City I'd say 9-12" with 9" in the Rockaways/JFK and 12" in the Bronx. That's about what consensus is. These insane model outputs aren't happening. I'd be thrilled but I'll eat my shoe if I get the 24" the new GFS shows. 

the 2' foot amounts are very unlikely but the city could easily see more than 12" depending on where the banding sets up of course. 8-12+ seems perfectly reasonable at this stage. As usual in these setups, it comes down to nowcasting.

[sussexcountyobs]

7 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The strong east flow's a blessing and curse. Longitude west actually helps us this time. But we don't want a low stalling out just off Atlantic City or it's our turn sooner or later too. 

I do want a low stalling east of Atlantic City.  That's perfect for me with artic air in place.

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Does one season a shoe with rock salt? 

Yes and pan-seared 5 minutes on each side.  

[TriPol]

Any updates on the NAM?

[Sn0waddict]

1 minute ago, TriPol said:

Any updates on the NAM?

Pretty identical to 18z so far.

[SleetStormNJ]

1 minute ago, TriPol said:

Any updates on the NAM?

Only Ant trying to hack it over and over again so his call looks conservative.

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, TriPol said:

Any updates on the NAM?

It's gonna be a good hit. Low isn't tucking into the coast.

[SI Mailman]

Pure porn

[jm1220]

15 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I think the big totals are possible somewhere. We have the right ingredients. The problem is the jackpot zones aren't usually forecastable in advance of nowcasting time.

Oh definitely, I can see some people getting 20". I just don't think it'll be the city in this setup. It'll be a place maybe near I-84 where ratios are good and there's plenty of moisture. snywx, sussexcountyobs, ForestHillWx, where you are will be some of the best spots. 

[Allsnow]

21 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The strong east flow's a blessing and curse. Longitude west actually helps us this time. But we don't want a low stalling out just off Atlantic City or it's our turn sooner or later too. 

The damage will be done by then if that happens. This will produce. Obviously LI is a tricky forecast. Nam looks great again 

[MJO812]

Nam is beautiful 

Nice and cold

[Allsnow]

Just now, SI Mailman said:

Pure porn

@snowman19 CCB OWNAGE 

[SI Mailman]

Long Island getting obliterated on this run.   So glad I'm off on Monday.  Boss asked me if I wanted to work OT and I pretty much laughed in his face.  

[jm1220]

NAM's a monster/crippler again. This is my favorite panel. This sits over NYC/Long Island for several hours. That would be 3"/hr snow in that band. 

[MJO812]

Jeez

[SnoSki14]

Interesting how the Nam is starting to get consistent with the more offshore track. 

And it's within its good range.

[Gravity Wave]

NAM is east of the other models with the low, good news for NYC and LI.

[Allsnow]

Stalls and spins south of LI. Classic evolution for a big time KU in NYC 

[kat5hurricane]

The Nam has been consistent with that death band over all of Long Island. 

[jm1220]

Just now, Gravity Wave said:

NAM is east of the other models with the low, good news for NYC and LI.

It's awesome but for now have to treat it as wx porn unless the foreign models that have it more tucked jump on. 

[Allsnow]

Nam has 2 feet for nyc 

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, Gravity Wave said:

NAM is east of the other models with the low, good news for NYC and LI.

Storms that slip east are not good for NJ though...the city is big...and east of us....

[Snowfreak09]

Do we meet blizzard criteria with this ?

[Allsnow]

Just now, jm1220 said:

It's awesome but for now have to treat it as wx porn unless the foreign models that have it more tucked jump on. 

Euro has 15+ for nyc 

GFS 15+

[Allsnow]

Just now, weatherpruf said:

Storms that slip east are not good for NJ though...the city is big...and east of us....

Nam has 15 inches of snow for Woodbridge New Jersey 

[Allsnow]

Nam 3k Same as the 12k Nam. Nyc ccb pivot 

[weatherpruf]

35 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

This will tick East tomorrow. Miller B always slip East inside 24 hours. Either way you slice it this is the biggest storm for the metro since 2016

That will cut us down some, if it happens. How much I can't say, but in those set ups it can be significant. Would like to get hammered here for the first time in 5 years. But we'll see. I'm really seeing predictions all over the place; I can't see how Sussex county cashes in and LI cashes in, if there is movement east. I'm not in either location.

[Allsnow]

Just now, weatherpruf said:

That will cut us down some, if it happens. How much I can't say, but in those set ups it can be significant. Would like to get hammered here for the first time in 5 years. But we'll see. I'm really seeing predictions all over the place; I can't see how Sussex county cashes in and LI cashes in, if there is movement east. I'm not in either location.

We are good for 12+. Stop

[crossbowftw3]

NAM giving me 6-10 this run? And it still keeps NYC/LI in the Jack zone? 

 

I’ll gladly take it for myself and giving the snow-starved here something special 

[weatherpruf]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Nam has 15 inches of snow for Woodbridge New Jersey 

That would be the biggest in 5 years here....