Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.

[Nibor]

GFSv16 is east and colder compared to the regular GFS.

[eduggs]

Model consensus now shifts the pivoting deformation bands well NW of us. That introduces the possibility of unmodeled high ratio jackpot zones in CPA, SNY, upstate NY etc. But for now it still looks like a lot of snow for most of us. It just no longer looks like the comma head will decay over head on Tuesday.  That could change again of course.

[Fantom X]

It's times like this that I miss LI

[SnoSki14]

Just now, Nibor said:

GFSv16 is east and colder compared to the regular GFS.

Will be a good test to see if it's right again.

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, eduggs said:

Model consensus now shifts the pivoting deformation bands well NW of us. That introduces the possibility of unmodeled high ratio jackpot zones in CPA, SNY, upstate NY etc. But for now it still looks like a lot of snow for most of us. It just no longer looks like the comma head will decay over head on Tuesday.  That could change again of course.

Need NAM track for that otherwise it’s huge thump and they dryslot/mix 

[SnowGoose69]

The GFS if you look at numericals tries turning the wind 080-090 at JFK/LGA.   It cannot pick up the damming effect you get with the high over Canada and does this with every snow event.  The Euro and NAM more correctly show the 040-060 wind

[White Gorilla]

21 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Model consensus now shifts the pivoting deformation bands well NW of us. That introduces the possibility of unmodeled high ratio jackpot zones in CPA, SNY, upstate NY etc. But for now it still looks like a lot of snow for most of us. It just no longer looks like the comma head will decay over head on Tuesday.  That could change again of course.

LOL at if Binghamton gets 3 feet again 

[MJO812]

Para is a Hecs

[crossbowftw3]

Just now, White Gorilla said:

LOL at if Binghamton gets 3 feet again 

I would genuinely be annoyed if that happened.

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, Nibor said:

GFSv16 is east and colder compared to the regular GFS.

It's been extremely consistent the last 4 runs or so. Hope it and the NAM are onto it.

[Snowlover11]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Uh?

regular gfs looks nothing like that.

[eduggs]

1 hour ago, HVSnowLover said:

NAM is epic and what will happen if the low stays far enough south to avoid the dry slot 

Actually I think the SLP on the NAM is further NE. Tucks closer to the NJ shore than the Delmarva and drifts northeastward. 

[sussexcountyobs]

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Do you have the corresponding Mt. Holly map?

[Jt17]

Just now, Snowlover11 said:

regular gfs looks nothing like that.

That's the regular GFS... you sure you aren't looking at an old model run... Plus the seemingly more accurate GFSv16 says this underdone...

[weatherpruf]

47 minutes ago, mannylovessnow said:

For reference Channel 2 is saying 6-12" and Channel 4 is saying 8-12" for the city

Major radio stations are saying 6-10. 8-12 really isn't a significant difference in impact.

[Greg g]

Just now, weatherpruf said:

Major radio stations are saying 6-10. 8-12 really isn't a significant difference in impact.

Really?? I’d say there is quite a difference from 6 and 12

[sussexcountyobs]

Just now, Greg g said:

Really?? I’d say there is quite a difference from 6 and 12

6-10  8-12" Thats only a 2" difference. Basically the same forecast. 

[donsutherland1]

4 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Do you have the corresponding Mt. Holly map?

[sussexcountyobs]

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

Thankyou. They mesh. Sometimes they are different and doesn't make sense.

[Nibor]

6 minutes ago, Greg g said:

Really?? I’d say there is quite a difference from 6 and 12

Have you never seen a forecast for 6-12?

[weatherpruf]

7 minutes ago, Greg g said:

Really?? I’d say there is quite a difference from 6 and 12

In the old days yes, not so much with modern equipment and pretreating streets. The type of snow matters as well; a wet snow is more impactful at 6-8 inches than a 12 inch powder. 

[TriPol]

28 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Maybe Channel 7 will change their tune this time around..

[MJO812]

22 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

regular gfs looks nothing like that.

Yes it does

[MJO812]

20 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

That's the regular GFS... you sure you aren't looking at an old model run... Plus the seemingly more accurate GFSv16 says this underdone...

Para gfs has 20 inches for the city 

[White Gorilla]

Really curious to see how accumulations play out with this storm given its long duration.  Some people are really going to surpass expectations. 

[sussexcountyobs]

12 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Maybe Channel 7 will change their tune this time around..

They will at 11 pm.

[sferic]

35 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

LOL at if Binghamton gets 3 feet again 

Binghamton  snowfall so far this season : 66.7 inches Albany 39.5Buffalo 42.6Rochester 30.5 and syracuse 37.2 inches

[sussexcountyobs]

Where are the 18Z GFS maps?

[dave0176]

59 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

What's up PS brother. I knew this storm was coming, and called in a vacation day for Monday this past Wednesday. 

We get 12-18” of snow it’s gonna be interesting driving to customers houses for gas leaks and no heats lol Lotta OT coming, already told the wife expecting 16s........

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Where are the 18Z GFS maps?