Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.

[mob1]

8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I cannot tell on tropical tidbits if the 3km NAM is trying to show sleet 09-14Z near NYC or the color algorithm is trying to just snow very heavy snow

Soundings definitely indicate it's heavy snow. 

[Jt17]

10 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

Kutcher a, about 2’ from 78 north, 20” for NYC and up to 30” for spots in N NJ/ S NY state

 

I think Kuchera amount for nyc is prob closer to 24 inches. It's hard to tell due to the low resolution of this map, but I could be wrong.

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

2 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Soundings definitely indicate it's heavy snow. 

What about Monmouth county same time frame??

[mob1]

1 minute ago, BlizzardNYC said:

What about Monmouth county same time frame??

About the same, though there is a warm nose afterwards as precipitation lightens up so the following few hours have some sleet. 

[bluewave]

The storm force onshore flow will result in moderate to locally low end major coastal flooding. So places like Freeport on the water may see their snowpack get floated like icebergs. I saw this with several blizzards in the past.

[qwerty710710]

RGEM is looking good.

[NJwx85]

3k NAM 10:1 map shows 34” IMBY. Where do I sign?

[Edubbs83]

Precip shield looks less organized than last night.  Maybe expected. Any one have an idea of start time today for western LI.  Around early evening? 

[Blizzardo]

Orange is Biblical !

[nightknights]

Today project before snow get my new accurite 5-1 weather station set up outside

[Rjay]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The storm force onshore flow will result in moderate to locally low end major coastal flooding. So places like Freeport on the water may see their snowpack get floated like icebergs. I saw this with several blizzards in the past.

 

 

 

 

[MJO812]

Wow

 

Rgem

 

Still snowing pretty good

[NEG NAO]

39 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

3k Nam is insane

20 inches for NYC

thats 6 inches less then the 6Z at least in my neck of the woods in central NJ

[HVSnowLover]

44 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nam is a monster

I think every model is a monster at this point lol 

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

thats 6 inches less then the 6Z at least in my neck of the woods in central NJ

With 30 inches being shown someone next to that band will get less but the models still haven’t totally nailed down where the best banding is but have been consistent highest totals somewhere in PA to NJ

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

I think every model is a monster at this point lol 

Agree

Rgem has 30 inches for North Jersey lol

[HVSnowLover]

12 minutes ago, Edubbs83 said:

Precip shield looks less organized than last night.  Maybe expected. Any one have an idea of start time today for western LI.  Around early evening? 

Yes expected. Enjoy the day and don’t watch the radar too closely. Wouldn’t expect anything interesting at our latitude until tonight at the earliest.

[SnoSki14]

After the 12z suite I think I'm good with model watching outside of the very short term HRRR. 

12"+ looks like a lock even under a worst case scenario. Forecast looks good with 13-18". 

Will be the biggest storm since 2016 for me.

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Nam 

 

This is just for tomorrow with more to go

FWIW, just heard a pro say the NAM has been consistent enough that he's sticking with it; doesn't expect much mixing except at the Twin Forks, with most of LI getting a foot an the city as well ( or more ) before any change to rain.

[Ericjcrash]

[HVSnowLover]

Rgem must have insane qpf to show those totals with the mix line making it to Rockland county 

[Blizzardo]

Every model is spitting out 20-30" totals... yessssss!

[NEG NAO]

Just now, Ericjcrash said:

there is alot of mixing and possible changeover to rain along the coast at least on that run

[Ericjcrash]

2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

FWIW, just heard a pro say the NAM has been consistent enough that he's sticking with it; doesn't expect much mixing except at the Twin Forks, with most of LI getting a foot an the city as well ( or more ) before any change to rain.

Not that consistent IMO. RGEM has been more

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, Ericjcrash said:

Not that consistent IMO. RGEM has been more

Rgem I think is overdone and overamped. Last night had 50 inches in Allentown. I’d go with a blend of NAM/Euro at this point 

[Noteaster101]

Little worried about Bernie Raynos forecast of mixing issues and the dreaded dry slots in New York City and Long Island keeping snow totals down to 6 to 12 inches, even though I’m in the lower Hudson Valley and in a good place, I’m worried about mixing issues here also in Rockland County, any thoughts on Raynos forecast?

[pstar3182]

Looks like Coastal Monmouth suffers that on-flow air and mixes  

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

there is alot of mixing and possible changeover to rain along the coast at least on that run

Rgem would actually flip nyc and especially LI to legit rain but I think it’s overamped

[SnoSki14]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

there is alot of mixing and possible changeover to rain along the coast at least on that run

Rgem has a tendency to overamplify things.

I think given the depth of the cold and precip the coastal front will be further east. 

Will be keeping an eye on the dry slot though.

[bluewave]

This will be your near whiteout conditions tomorrow with wind gusts over 50mph and 1-3” per hour rates. 
 

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/