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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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3 hours ago, EHoffman said:

Meh, I still expect us to go non-frozen at some point for sure.  And a bunch of sleet during the day is gonna struggle to accumulate on roads.  It'll be sloppy, for sure.

I mean the NAM is mostly during the day no?  Slop has a hard time accumulating on the roads in DC during the day in mid-late February. 

Cripes.

Anyway, my extra ice melt should be arriving tomorrow. Don't need another skating rink like last time.

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

My first impressions are again better confluence and the storm seems south/weaker but also less thump so less dynamic cooling to help mix our warm layers so it might be a wash. Seems dryer and slower again. 

We like this run. But I personally want to see 2”/hr rates, not get 5” of snow from 1/2”/he steady snow, we’ve gotten that already. I want the thumpiest of thumps. We’ve kept seeing these in models 48-72h out then watched rates/dynamics lessen. 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

My first impressions are again better confluence and the storm seems south/weaker but also less thump so less dynamic cooling to help mix our warm layers so it might be a wash. Seems dryer and slower again. 

Is there any reason as to why it's so slow with onset of precip? It's been heading that way for most of the day, which is at the same time going against other guidance. But yes, the thermals overhead improving still inspire some confidence for the general subforum even with a drier solution. 

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Just now, DDweatherman said:

Randy; a 6” letdown? I mean I want to see the 1-2”/hr rates, so in that regard the euro could be better. Column ain’t bad for your neck though. 

Maybe I'm looking at shitty graphics?  And I don't have snow maps.

At any rate...folks, a thread.  We are well under 72 hours

 

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1 hour ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

Is it just me or has lake affect calm down in recent years? I remember when buffalo got like 7 feet of snow once.Is it just me or has lake affect calm down in recent years? I remember when buffalo got like 7 feet of snow once.

Yeah they had snowpack into June or something crazy like that. Boston did too.

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