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WinterWxLuvr

Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED

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2 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said:

Too bad it is the euro and it has been dreadful all season!

It's been a gut puncher this year but if you believe the euro from hrs 48-60 in the mid&upper levels (I do), a disastrous outcome could be further away than we want to let ourselves believe. Disastrous is subjective tho

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6 minutes ago, GATECH said:

Do you mean east...I don’t care about WV

We don’t really care about east so I guess there’s balance

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Just now, HighStakes said:

Let's go for the entire month of February.

Sign me up! I think it's been since 13/14 since we've had a whole month of snow on the ground. Maybe 2016, but even then not sure that 30" stuck around for a month. 

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2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

1613703600-gCrsS7cekSE.png

1613768400-utClkYC6SYM.png

1613768400-7eJTx7jn33E.png

Damn. Some of those areas showing high ice accumulation may not have power on from last storm. 

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I’ll take a few more shifts south. It needs to. I’m owed. Euro needs to get its shit together and be right

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That's a lot of ice on top of areas in Virginia that are still trying to recover and get power back on.  Power companies are putting in work this month.

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15 minutes ago, Ji said:

that max is now over leesburg...it will be in CHO by Wed am

North south east or west is my call. You know how this game works! 

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9 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Northern MD never gets above 26-27 degrees.

its also kind of fringed. I like the south trend but we need to stop the bleeding a bit?

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Euro just caused me a huge problem. I disrobed at hr78 but that's normal. Then someone knocked on my door and forgot I had no clothes on. Waiting for arraignment. If I need money for bail I'll post a gofundme link later

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Just now, Ji said:

its also kind of fringed. I like the south trend but we need to stop the bleeding a bit?

1:30pm on Monday and we officially have our first "stop the south trend, we're going to get fringed" concern post.  I love it.

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1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

sn10_acc.us_ma.png

Never gets above freezing during the event, might actually be pretty much all snow verbatim.

qpf_024h.us_ma.png

12+ up this way? Yes please. 

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

its also kind of fringed. I like the south trend but we need to stop the bleeding a bit?

Juice it up just a touch and keep it right where it is now and we're good. Hopefully no BS last minute drastic changes.

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Just now, EHoffman said:

1:30pm on Monday and we officially have our first "stop the south trend, we're going to get fringed" concern post.  I love it.

Oh you haven't seen nothing yet.  Wait until PSU gets in this mofo.   This is how we know we're all gonna get a good storm, including him.  When he starts fretting about being fringed, get out the shovels

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Just now, HighStakes said:

Juice it up just a touch and keep it right where it is now and we're good. Hopefully no BS last minute drastic changes.

Not saying it happens with this one, maybe the confluence will just win out but there has been somewhat of a trend to suppress things (get it to go south) in the 48-84 hour ranges and then the inevitable north shift in the 24 hours to gametime frame...just something to think about is all, I mean most of us would probably still be good for a thump even if that happens

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3 minutes ago, EHoffman said:

1:30pm on Monday and we officially have our first "stop the south trend, we're going to get fringed" concern post.  I love it.

But also, this you bruh?

3 hours ago, EHoffman said:

Writing on the wall already for this one...has the making of a classic wet snow that doesn't accumulate to brief sleet to rain for DC.  I've seen this storm many times before.

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro just caused me a huge problem. I disrobed at hr78 but that's normal. Then someone knocked on my door and forgot I had no clothes on. Waiting for arraignment. If I need money for bail I'll post a gofundme link later

I’ll definitely contribute, BC. I understand that Panic Room complex residents get extra time stay chits for the same behavior. The Reaper is much more progressive..as always ...

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1 minute ago, Baltimorewx said:

Not saying it happens with this one, maybe the confluence will just win out but there has been somewhat of a trend to suppress things (get it to go south) in the 48-84 hour ranges and then the inevitable north shift in the 24 hours to gametime frame...just something to think about is all, I mean most of us would probably still be good for a thump even if that happens

The positive is there is really good model consensus for a good thump and right now most areas have some wiggle room.

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If we can get a nice 6-8” thump before sleet and a dry slot, that’s the ultimate outcome with a storm tracking over us or to our west. Can’t ask for much better than that in our area in this type of setup.
 

Man… Just imagine we could somehow get the SLP / the 850 low to track to our south.  This would be a monster. Afraid we’re too close for that drastic of a trend but damn, it’d be nice. Whoever stays all snow just NW of the fall line is going to get destroyed.  

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If anyone looks at this h5 panel and thinks suppression is even a remote concern, they need to kick themselves square in the nutz 

ecmwf_z500a_us_4.png

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1 minute ago, jayyy said:

If we can get a nice 6-8” thump before sleet and a dry slot, that’s the ultimate outcome with a storm tracking over us or to our west. Can’t ask for much better than that in our area in this type of setup.
 

Man… Just imagine we could somehow get the SLP / the 850 low to track to our south.  This would be a monster. Afraid we’re too close for that drastic of a trend but damn, it’d be nice. Whoever stays all snow just NW of the fall line is going to get destroyed.  

You want a little freezing rain. Or at least I do. That’s gives you the concrete on top.

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