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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The rgem is acceptable. But it was a baby step towards the NAM. That’s not something I want to see. Frankly I don’t want signs they will “compromise”.   A compromise is a minor snow to ice event. No thanks. I signed up for the euro/para/uk 6-12” of snow package. I’m not settling for some pathetic run of the mill 2-4” to mix event.  

Here's where I think the disconnect between you and leesburg today is rooted. A few short days ago this was an abject failure and barely discussion worthy. Globals quickly and unexpectedly set the hook with arguably too bullish of snow solutions with front end. It's fun to consider but I think everyone knows high end results are full of peril. Plenty of people have said as much. But when the nam did what it did at 12z, you drilled down to the subatomic level of why it might be right and why we should seriously worry. Well, we're all appropriately worried already imo and just having some fun. But man PSU, you really sunk the nail this AM with nam analysis. And now with my quoted post it's either high end results or bust. And that's totally fine and you have every damn right on earth and venus to feel such a way. Just don't expect us all to feel the same away about it. It does have the feel that your goal may be that. Maybe I'm out to lunch and I probably am but my read of the room comes to that conclusion.

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Here's where I think the disconnect between you and leesburg today is rooted. A few short days ago this was an abject failure and barely discussion worthy. Globals quickly and unexpectedly set the hook with arguably too bullish of snow solutions with front end. It's fun to consider but I think everyone knows high end results are full of peril. Plenty of people have said as much. But when the nam did what it did at 12z, you drilled down to the subatomic level of why it might be right and why we should seriously worry. Well, we're all appropriately worried already imo and just having some fun. But man PSU, you really sunk the nail this AM with nam analysis. And now with my quoted post it's either high end results or bust. And that's totally fine and you have every damn right on earth and venus to feel such a way. Just don't expect us all to feel the same away about it. It does have the feel that your goal may be that. Maybe I'm out to lunch and I probably am but my read of the room comes to that conclusion.

Yeah, this.  I can't believe that anyone seriously believes or is seriously looking for, an area-wide 6-12" event, especially in the metro DC area (I suspect PSU is being a little snarky with his comment, too).  Fun to talk about or even get a little excited at the prospect, sure.  Of course, if the models continue throwing that at us even as it's on our doorstep, then sure.  But that aside, a solid thump of snow would be great.  I don't mind that it will mix or change to sleet and ice, and completely expect that in this situation.  My hope is that we can minimize (or even eliminate?) warming up and then getting dumped on with rain.

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11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I still need another 50 miles or so on most guidance in general to feel good about a few inches on the front end.

On the NAM I need 250.

Notice we are saying the exact same things but due to stylistic differences how we express it changes how it’s perceived. Lol   And people can say they are good with a compromise (and yea if it ends up going that way fine and I’ll take what we get. No choice anyways.  But come on everyone is rooting for the 6”+ thump snow.  We might accept less but we want to see everything trend to the globals not compromise with the BS the NAM is spitting out. Screw the NAM. Globals hold the line damnit. Don’t give an inch. Force the NAM into unconditional unmitigated surrender. 

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18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The rgem is acceptable. But it was a baby step towards the NAM. That’s not something I want to see. Frankly I don’t want signs they will “compromise”.   A compromise is a minor snow to ice event. No thanks. I signed up for the euro/para/uk 6-12” of snow package. I’m not settling for some pathetic run of the mill 2-4” to mix event.  

Trying to figure how that was any step to the NAM, especially in low track.  I mean, was a little warmer at onset vs 12z but it didn't look anything like the NAM.   That being said, RGEM can eat it.

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5 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Yeah, this.  I can't believe that anyone seriously believes or is seriously looking for, an area-wide 6-12" event, especially in the metro DC area (I suspect PSU is being a little snarky with his comment, too).  Fun to talk about or even get a little excited at the prospect, sure.  Of course, if the models continue throwing that at us even as it's on our doorstep, then sure.  But that aside, a solid thump of snow would be great.  I don't mind that it will mix or change to sleet and ice, and completely expect that in this situation.  My hope is that we can minimize (or even eliminate?) warming up and then getting dumped on with rain.

This here is my bar for this...For a storm that a few days ago looked like all rain, I think this is a healthy goal to have. I'm okay with thump to sleet/ice...at least the snowcover will still be there afterward! :lol:

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Notice we are saying the exact same things but due to stylistic differences how we express it changes how it’s perceived. Lol   And people can say they are good with a compromise (and yea if it ends up going that way fine and I’ll take what we get. No choice anyways.  But come on everyone is rooting for the 6”+ thump snow.  We might accept less but we want to see everything trend to the globals not compromise with the BS the NAM is spitting out. Screw the NAM. Globals hold the line damnit. Don’t give an inch. Force the NAM into unconditional unmitigated surrender. 

I guess my expectations were so low I just have no reason to hand wring over how this goes. My snowpack died today for the most part, so nothing to protect, and given the hostile look for the coastal plain just a few days ago, whatever frozen I get I am fine with. The NAM might have the right idea, and if it does, so be it. Then I get 90% rain as I expected anyway lol. Given the trends on almost all other guidance though, I think it is most likely the NAM being the NAM at range, and is probably out to lunch.

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