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January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)


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5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

How have the last few signals worked out?

Terribly.  But what else is there to do?  I don’t know about everyone else but we only get 2.5 months of winter and I’m going to watch until it’s over.

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I would like to state this just to get it off my chest. When we get a couple of systems that put down rain, only rain, then I’ll climb on board the temp train. Right now it does not seem possible to get non cold front related precip here. The awesome storm track that we had all fall until about mid December vanished as soon as the holy grail blocking set up. We have had 0.3” of precip here since Jan 1. If this is what Atlantic blocking brings then I don’t ever want Atlantic blocking again.

Im tired of hearing about patterns, blocking, good windows, storm signals. Until the weather proves that precipitation can occur here, then I’m not putting any faith into forecast.

Ok I’m good now. Just had to get that out of my system. LOL. Good luck y’all. Think we may need it.

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’m with you. But I don’t think ens snow maps mean much quite frankly.

If you take them at face value, sure.  But how I see them as more of a target zone per se. Could be flawed but it at least shows where cold and precip might be meeting. It’s a quick glance to see potentially after looking at H5.  I’m going to keep posting and let the chips fall for the remaining 6 weeks we have left.

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I took issue with your reason not the prediction. The high location was a result of other drivers not a cause. The compressed flow in front in the Atlantic and the amplitude of the wave are the real issues. The wave needed to be stronger or the flow more relaxed in front.  Some combo. 2 days ago for a bit those things were trending our way across guidance. Since they have gone the other way. 

My rationale two days was either a) storm is more progressive (weaker) and we Chet light snow but perhaps better temp profile (maybe) or b) it’s wound up and we get more dynamics and qpf. The reason we’re failing is confluence to the north created by TPV. I mentioned too much confluence and we get no development and southern track. Pretty sure that’s close to what’s happening. I dunno

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Just now, leesburg 04 said:

Would anyone really be shocked if a model run or two shows a decent snow up this way? I mean it's Sunday for a Thursday storm...this isn't locked in and yes it could get even worse. 

Dude at this point I’ll take any type of heavy precip. Seriously.

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2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’m with you. But I don’t think ens snow maps mean much quite frankly.

No they don’t, and I don’t blame anyone for not giving a crap what I have to say at this point..., but here is the deal.  Back on the horse. Analysis. Not using clown snow maps lol. 

this is the setup for day 4 and then day 8 with key features identified  

05D7986E-8D38-4C23-AA23-8859E38CC6D9.thumb.jpeg.1472b05f6057528df42ab1338b2ec0c1.jpeg

DAC41017-6791-4F68-A8E1-557AB7F27FD5.thumb.jpeg.9b843ce6fb23e354d3daa09f8757dd30.jpeg

As I said it’s almost a replay do over.  The pattern sort of hit the pause/reset button because of the amplification of the Thursday wave delaying the eventual progression.  
 

Btw it’s possible  if that were to happen with each wave we get through the “reboot” period without ever having the pattern break down before what could evolve mid Feb but one step at a time and that’s rather hopeful but it’s on the table.  
 

So what are the difference that could lead to a better outcome day 8.  Frankly both look good at a quick glance.  It’s not like Thursday is an awful look.  But when you zoom in the spacing issue becomes apparent.  The wave in front has slowed significantly in the last 72 hours.  The ridge behind has shifted east slightly.  The combo is compressing the flow around our wave and limiting its ability to amplify.  
 

Looking at day 8 the spacing seems better.  What sticks out to me is the block is weaker, it’s more just a ridge in northern Quebec by then but that’s fine it’s done it’s dirty work and set up the suppressed flow across the Conus and the 50/50s.  The 50/50 is exiting though and there is more space between the waves here on both sides!  Don’t mind the lesser amplitude of the wave that’s mostly due to the longer lead time washing things a bit.  All features are more muted on ensembles at range. 
 

Flashing ahead to the critical moment we need amplification as the wave crosses our longitude 

30E73ED9-13D9-43CD-B981-C54E2E2789C8.thumb.jpeg.b01ee11371fef5f8c041dd8a173d222a.jpeg
EC69987E-B84D-4E8D-9698-C84F1E8235E6.thumb.jpeg.d6c8c6dff82e482d85c626b5429616a3.jpeg

you can see the difference with the spacing. 
 

All that said...the issues to be careful of here are that the spacing could change. It looked better for Thursday around day 8-10 too then the wave in front slowed down. Also like I’ve said were in a double bind so if the spacing is too great we could go the other way and get rain. But that look there is worthy of interest. It’s basically a do over of Thursday’s setup and I was in love with that look from range so I would by a hypocrite to crap on this next one. Let’s try take 2. 

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2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Would anyone really be shocked if a model run or two shows a decent snow up this way? I mean it's Sunday for a Thursday storm...this isn't locked in and yes it could get even worse. 

I would be shocked because I have not seen things turn better as we get closer in a long time.  That said, if I could get 2 inches then it would double my total for the season.  2 inches is underrated.  It can have impact and make someone happy.   Most prefer 6 inches or more but some are satisfied with a solid 2 inches.  

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5 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I would be shocked because I have not seen things turn better as we get closer in a long time.  That said, if I could get 2 inches then it would double my total for the season.  2 inches is underrated.  It can have impact and make someone happy.   Most prefer 6 inches or more but some are satisfied with a solid 2 inches.  

I feel like all season everything has trended north/warm in the last 48h before the event. Maybe this one can too... but with our luck this will be the one that doesn't

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Just now, caviman2201 said:

I feel like all season everything has trended north/warm in the last 48h before the event. Maybe this one can too... but with our luck this will be the one that doesn't

You know what. It’s Sunday.  This happens Thursday.  Not a lot of time and certainly trending wrong but if a couple of inches is the goal then we are all in the game.  I’m telling you those green hue snow outputs fcuks with people’s minds and some are so fragile that taking that away just causes an extinction. Level event.  

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54 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

No they don’t, and I don’t blame anyone for not giving a crap what I have to say at this point..., but here is the deal.  Back on the horse. Analysis. Not using clown snow maps lol. 

this is the setup for day 4 and then day 8 with key features identified  

05D7986E-8D38-4C23-AA23-8859E38CC6D9.thumb.jpeg.1472b05f6057528df42ab1338b2ec0c1.jpeg

DAC41017-6791-4F68-A8E1-557AB7F27FD5.thumb.jpeg.9b843ce6fb23e354d3daa09f8757dd30.jpeg

As I said it’s almost a replay do over.  The pattern sort of hit the pause/reset button because of the amplification of the Thursday wave delaying the eventual progression.  
 

Btw it’s possible  if that were to happen with each wave we get through the “reboot” period without ever having the pattern break down before what could evolve mid Feb but one step at a time and that’s rather hopeful but it’s on the table.  
 

So what are the difference that could lead to a better outcome day 8.  Frankly both look good at a quick glance.  It’s not like Thursday is an awful look.  But when you zoom in the spacing issue becomes apparent.  The wave in front has slowed significantly in the last 72 hours.  The ridge behind has shifted east slightly.  The combo is compressing the flow around our wave and limiting its ability to amplify.  
 

Looking at day 8 the spacing seems better.  What sticks out to me is the block is weaker, it’s more just a ridge in northern Quebec by then but that’s fine it’s done it’s dirty work and set up the suppressed flow across the Conus and the 50/50s.  The 50/50 is exiting though and there is more space between the waves here on both sides!  Don’t mind the lesser amplitude of the wave that’s mostly due to the longer lead time washing things a bit.  All features are more muted on ensembles at range. 
 

Flashing ahead to the critical moment we need amplification as the wave crosses our longitude 

30E73ED9-13D9-43CD-B981-C54E2E2789C8.thumb.jpeg.b01ee11371fef5f8c041dd8a173d222a.jpeg
EC69987E-B84D-4E8D-9698-C84F1E8235E6.thumb.jpeg.d6c8c6dff82e482d85c626b5429616a3.jpeg

you can see the difference with the spacing. 
 

All that said...the issues to be careful of here are that the spacing could change. It looked better for Thursday around day 8-10 too then the wave in front slowed down. Also like I’ve said were in a double bind so if the spacing is too great we could go the other way and get rain. But that look there is worthy of interest. It’s basically a do over of Thursday’s setup and I was in love with that look from range so I would by a hypocrite to crap on this next one. Let’s try take 2. 

lol I went through this morning, but with a lot less words :P 

 

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1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

I would be shocked because I have not seen things turn better as we get closer in a long time.  That said, if I could get 2 inches then it would double my total for the season.  2 inches is underrated.  It can have impact and make someone happy.   Most prefer 6 inches or more but some are satisfied with a solid 2 inches.  

Hmm

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1 hour ago, PivotPoint said:

My rationale two days was either a) storm is more progressive (weaker) and we Chet light snow but perhaps better temp profile (maybe) or b) it’s wound up and we get more dynamics and qpf. The reason we’re failing is confluence to the north created by TPV. I mentioned too much confluence and we get no development and southern track. Pretty sure that’s close to what’s happening. I dunno

I don’t think that tpv is the issue. It’s behind the trough axis. It’s close but so long as it’s behind it’s not compressing that much. It’s not helping unless it dives in behind and phases though. But the bigger issue is the spacing (or lack of) between the waves off the coast and Thursday’s storm. The ridge to the west is too close also.  

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8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don’t think that tpv is the issue. It’s behind the trough axis. It’s close but so long as it’s behind it’s not compressing that much. It’s not helping unless it dives in behind and phases though. But the bigger issue is the spacing (or lack of) between the waves off the coast and Thursday’s storm. The ridge to the west is too close also.  

Glad you are back. We need you and this is your life!

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