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WxUSAF

January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)

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9 minutes ago, 87storms said:

The thing that’s stood out to me even on the good gfs runs is that the flow aloft is a bit flatter than I think we’d like out ahead of this. It certainly doesn’t have that hecs look with a deep feed into the gom. Doesn’t mean we can’t get a significant snow but I wonder if a lack of separation from the first system is having an effect. As is, I think we can get by (and might even want) this to be a truly west to east system that favors our lat instead of relying on a wound up coastal.

If this fails the lingering of the early week system which decreases the spacing and prevents ridging from really going up behind it is probably the biggest culprit. It’s the biggest change in the overall pattern from when I looked at it a week ago and really like it. The spacing isn’t as good now. Of course as the system approaches we are barely on the cold side and temps crash as the coastal forms...so whose to say had ridging gone up more this doesn’t cut and jump to the coast too far north like a lot of the gefs members that rained on us the other day. Our “win zone” with every storm is so narrow with the current temperature profile.  

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Man WTF I didn't expect this stupid ass TPV to screw everything over. I hope it trends so far south that southern Virginia gets very little snow because it's too warm.

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Just now, Ji said:

its the trend. If it was trending north it would be a great place to be

Where is the north trend when we need it?  

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

If this fails the lingering of the early week system which decreases the spacing and prevents ridging from really going up behind it is probably the biggest culprit. It’s the biggest change in the overall pattern from when I looked at it a week ago and really like it. The spacing isn’t as good now. Of course as the system approaches we are barely on the cold side and temps crash as the coastal forms...so whose to set had ridging gone up more this doesn’t cut and jump to the coast too far north like a lot of the gefs members that rained on us the other day. Our “win zone” with every storm is so narrow with the current temperature profile.  

I’d also think that traditionally, with a low as strong as the GFS is depicting moving across southern Virginia it would create a larger shield of snow on the north side. 

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Would be funny if euro is north. This gfs run isn’t impossible and still 5 days out, but can see that there’s only so much lat for this system to gain, assuming the blocking is as legit as advertised. Still trackable.

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3 minutes ago, wawarriors4 said:

Para GFS looks pretty decent.

Southern shift is definitely reflected in that stronger TPV over the lakes. Wasn't even there a few runs ago. Meh.

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Just now, Baltimorewx said:

South trend clear on that though as well 

I did see that, but it looks better than the regular GFS and I guess a South trend doesn't hurt as much when you live around Fredericksburg. I'm still just hopeful to see maybe 2" or so.

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4 minutes ago, LP08 said:

From almost 0.9” to 0.1” in one run.  

The story of our winter.  

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Why do you guys even post the gefs

Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk

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6 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said:

How does the GFS compare to the PARA GFS?   PARA GFS superior?  thoughts?

Para GFS has marginally higher scores @500mb. Like .01 better. 
 

eta: image.jpeg.d08c4bfa48dbd0030da24b5120a7d4ec.jpeg

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The gfs and the para looked different on all runs leading up to this point with the para being the best for most of us, but they don't look to be that far apart anymore.  Thursday is still a storm and four days away, so I'll keep watching but the para is definitely more in line with the other more south models.

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5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Is it such a terrible spot to be in 4 days out, though? Still looks close to me...

No this setup is bleeding the wrong way. Has been for the last several days honestly but somehow the gfs continued to amplify the h5 way more then all other guidance anyways. But the trough in front is slowing down more and more, that tpv in Canada is diving south more each run and the combination is compressing the flow a lot more. Frankly had the h5 flow looked the way it does now when I got excited 10 days ago I probably wouldn’t have. Imo the bigger failure is the wave Monday.   The progression sped up. That wave is happening during our best window wrt the Rex block and trough retrogression. But frankly the pathetic lack of cold F’d that up. No nice boundary for the wave to focus along, and that’s hey because it’s a surface driven not upper level wave.  So it’s  washing out and we weren’t even cold enough anyways if it hadn’t to maintain heavy snow.  But simply from a pattern progression that was our best shot to get a simple overrunning snow in DC.  The timing has changed for the next wave. The trough amplifies too much off the east coast and the ridge stops retrograding behind it. The wave after has a better chance to amplify but by then what pathetically little cold there is has eroded even more since the polar source is cut off. Imo the root of the fail was we had 5 days of epo ridge that opened a direct air feed off the Arctic straight down into southern Canada and the northern US...but that air quickly modified and mixed to become just an average blah airmass. That limited the potential of EVERY discreet threat within the blocking window.  Created the double bind. Less potential energy from a weaker boundary. Made us need more suppression to stay cold. But less likely to get amplified waves.  It’s not 100% over. Weirder things have happened. But I’m past the point of expecting it. 

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Unfortunately in this case the upper level pattern is trending unfavorably for our latitude. The 500 ridge out west is setting up too far east over the Plains where ideally it should be over the western states. Upper level low over southern Canada with the high nosing leads to a more progressive and southern system. The 500 energy comes at us more west to east vs a larger cutoff feature given the pattern. Unless we see changes to these features, the southern/progressive/slider type of a system would continue.

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

It was giving me 8” along the PA line yesterday. Trend. 

Congrats southern VA

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12 minutes ago, chris21 said:

I’d also think that traditionally, with a low as strong as the GFS is depicting moving across southern Virginia it would create a larger shield of snow on the north side. 

Less cold less resistance to WAA less lift less healthy precip shield to the north. We’ve seen that all year with every wave. The path to overcoming that here was when it was an extremely amplified bomb. It’s a balance. A weak wave with a weak WAA flow can create lift by having a deep hard to move cold airmass that resists the WAA creating lift. With less cold you need the flow from the wave to be stronger to compensate. Of course that opens the door to rain lol. See!  

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11 minutes ago, Ji said:

Why do you guys even post the gefs

Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk
 

Agreed. The GEFS is completely worthless. Basically locked into some kind of snowstorm, and now we aren't at all.

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