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January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)


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Just now, losetoa6 said:

It was in May last year remember :lol:

We just Missed a WWA event May 9th  by slight track change . Got SS all day 

2019-20 winter (DJF) at DCA had 26 days with a negative daily temperature departure, two of those -10.  

But there were 65 above normal days including 26 with at least a +10.

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19 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Nice cluster of stronger lows just S of Nags Head North to VA Beach latitude on the 18z. 

A real nice shift . I know there's a northern max most likely for a  coastal this setup but I'd like another sizeble shift nw or 2 or 3 small ones :D

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1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

Higher heights ahead of the storm but I guess it didnt do much. Still gets some precip into DC, and yeah it's a great hit for points south

That ULL is just a little too close in Canada and causes it to dive SE.  GFS has that feature further north.

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3 minutes ago, LP08 said:

That ULL is just a little too close in Canada and causes it to dive SE.  GFS has that feature further north.

I’m not sure how much that lobe effects things. It’s kind of cutoff from the flow. It’s more the 50/50 in my eyes. I mean we saw the cmc earlier which had that ULL sitting even farther S and it was better. Idk though 

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Before I say this let me preface that I am still optimistic for this storm.  I think we are in a pretty good spot.  I think this will work out.  But I wanted to highlight the double bind we are in right now and why we keep failing despite what has been one of the better longwave patterns we have had in many years all winter long.  

Look at this from the 18z EPS.

18zEPS.thumb.png.e84aa804d5dd068bc05bf7c895083224.png

Now...that was a pretty good run...but we still need a north adjustment.  The target was still just a little south of DC on that run.  There were some nice hits but too many misses still.   So we need a little more ridging or relaxing of the suppressive flow over the northeast to get the storm to trend north some...but look at where the "cold" boundary is as the storm approaches there!  How much can we even afford to "give"?  And yes the temps crash after once the storm secondary's and bombs to our southeast...but because of the suppressive flow to our north we need to get the primary up into southern Ohio or WV before it transfers to get heavy snow here.  But what if that ridging does shift north say 50/100 miles?  How much further before that primary maybe holds on into western PA and the transfer ends up to off NJ instead of off VA Beach and we get a miller b jump over us solution?  And about 9 members of the 18z GEFS had just that.  We're walking a razor edge on EVERY possible snow solution right now because of "THIS" double bind.  Right there...on that run...we have barely enough suppression to prevent warmth from surging north of us ahead of the wave...but its slightly too much suppression for a storm to amplify enough to "crush" us.  We have absolutely no margin of error because the cold is so freaking pathetic that to resist warmth from surging north of us ahead of any wave we need such a suppressive flow that it prevents any storms from amplifying.  If the suppression relaxes we can get a storm but its rain.  

 

I debated not posting this... but I think we can keep this from becoming an out of control debate about "you know what".  I am not going to even say its all "THAT".  There are some factors that maybe aren't permanent.  The PV got sent to the other side of the globe, the pac torched north america all fall and early winter and so perhaps the base state is even warmer now then just due to AGW.  But regardless of all that...this is the bind we are in right now trying to get snow regardless of the pattern.  The same exact equation is playing out Monday also.  That storm is suppressed so much it becomes a strung out mess that barely gets heavy precip to the mason dixon line...and NYC is on the northern fringes.  Yet DC can't get any snow???  If the storm was suppressed much more there would be no heavy precip anyways...this keeps playing out time and again all winter long.  

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