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January Long Range Disco Thread


yoda
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17 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

Agreed..  and I’m not sure I gathered what you were saying earlier. You were saying that the upcoming h5 setup in the 7-10 day range is more indicative of how we fail then how we usually succeed? Because of the TPV being displaced this far south? I understand that we don’t want the TPV centered in the southern central CA but not sure what your explanation was for a ridge out west and lower heights in the southern tier being a fail setup. Seemed like the heights around the lakes were keeping our trough from turning negative and moving up the coast. What am I missing 

I was actually saying that was a pretty good setup. It’s not perfect.  More wave separation and a 50/50 would be ideal.  But a displaced TPV lobe diving in and phasing just to our west is a way we have scored before. It can cut inland if the trough amplifies too far west so it’s not this sure thing can’t fail look. Get more spacing and a 50/50 and it becomes that.  But I was saying that tpv there makes getting higher heights in the lakes impossible. But so long as the low is behind the southern wave and not in front it’s ok. The way that works is the cold is locked in long enough in front then by the time the lakes low would screw us the coastal takes over and the mid levels close off and the lakes low becomes irrelevant. That only works if the NS isn’t dominant like the gfs and ggem showed. The euro was all NS and that won’t work.  To make my point look at the 12z gfs run. The mid levels stay cold enough. We’re rain because it is just too warm at the surface despite a closed circulation and saturation. The lakes low wasn’t really a huge issue it was just too warm at the surface. That’s sad for Jan 19 with a bombing low off the coast!

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5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Man, this is probably about the lowest morale has been around here in a while....and in the midst of a "great" pattern too.   Dark days in the land.  I think we should all just grit our teeth and wait one more week from now and see where we are before we hit the cliff.  

I think we are mostly just bored with the waiting, and having a little fun with it. At least I am. I still think we are in decent shape beyond the next week. Subject to change ofc.

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33 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

Tracking sucks right now. 18z gfs with a big whiff. Has zero snow through Jan 26. I guess we’re building up cred for next years massive HECS. This blows

GFS must have the highest verification scores for  360 snowfall forecasts. Bravo :deadhorse:  

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Trying to find some good news....here’s the snowfall mean for various periods on the 18z GEFS (for DC).

D1-D10:  0.8”

D11-D15:  1.2” (total:  2.0”)

D16: 1.3” (total 3.3”)

A few takeaways:

1) Go find a hobby to keep busy for the next 7-10 days.  

2) That’s a pretty big signal on a D16 24 hour snowfall mean.

3) It always feels 10+ days away.

 

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1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

Man, this is probably about the lowest morale has been around here in a while....and in the midst of a "great" pattern too.   Dark days in the land.  I think we should all just grit our teeth and wait one more week from now and see where we are before we hit the cliff.  

or at least 10 days

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59 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Man, this is probably about the lowest morale has been around here in a while....and in the midst of a "great" pattern too.   Dark days in the land.  I think we should all just grit our teeth and wait one more week from now and see where we are before we hit the cliff.  

Like CAPE I’m mostly just bored with this pattern chasing. Also frustrated we can’t seem to link into just some snow in what shouldn’t be a shutout look. But we look to keep the extremely -AO/NAO for the next 15 days if not longer. I still will be shocked if we get a strongly -AO/NAO for a solid month in mid winter and get shut out. That’s kinda crazy. I’ll bet that somewhere we get lucky. 

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9 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Trying to find some good news....here’s the snowfall mean for various periods on the 18z GEFS (for DC).

D1-D10:  0.8”

D11-D15:  1.2” (total:  2.0”)

D16: 1.3” (total 3.3”)

A few takeaways:

1) Go find a hobby to keep busy for the next 7-10 days.  

2) That’s a pretty big signal on a D16 24 hour snowfall mean.

3) It always feels 10+ days away.

 

The gefs is going bonkers with the Greenland block. 
this...

2929CEB7-399C-466E-ADAB-5508B3799CD2.thumb.png.82b4e0b255d7d650fc6587ccbfd4af0d.png

leads to this look as it starts to relax which leads to that spike in snowfall...

87D61F4F-4299-489F-B6EA-E7CD7995F1E4.thumb.png.672417d1340370c8d8ba5ce543adb759.png

if the gefs is right about that the period as the blocking relaxes is commonly when we do score so the progression fits.

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The gefs is going bonkers with the Greenland block. 
this...

2929CEB7-399C-466E-ADAB-5508B3799CD2.thumb.png.82b4e0b255d7d650fc6587ccbfd4af0d.png

leads to this look as it starts to relax which leads to that spike in snowfall...

87D61F4F-4299-489F-B6EA-E7CD7995F1E4.thumb.png.672417d1340370c8d8ba5ce543adb759.png

if the gefs is right about that the period as the blocking relaxes is commonly when we do score so the progression fits.

But this is practically the end of January!  I sure hope the pattern does not break down fast!

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1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

Man, this is probably about the lowest morale has been around here in a while....and in the midst of a "great" pattern too.   Dark days in the land.  I think we should all just grit our teeth and wait one more week from now and see where we are before we hit the cliff.  

Crazy looking back at this past Friday getting that 1.5” event. It was dumping here for a little bit. Beggars definitely can’t be choosers at this juncture. Pretty deflating to see Deep South getting snow in TX and LA

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Just now, Buddy1987 said:

Crazy looking back at this past Friday getting that 1.5” event. It was dumping here for a little bit. Beggars definitely can’t be choosers at this juncture. Pretty deflating to see Deep South getting snow in TX and LA

At least you got to see snow falling and accumulating. :weep:

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17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The gefs is going bonkers with the Greenland block. 
this...

2929CEB7-399C-466E-ADAB-5508B3799CD2.thumb.png.82b4e0b255d7d650fc6587ccbfd4af0d.png

leads to this look as it starts to relax which leads to that spike in snowfall...

87D61F4F-4299-489F-B6EA-E7CD7995F1E4.thumb.png.672417d1340370c8d8ba5ce543adb759.png

if the gefs is right about that the period as the blocking relaxes is commonly when we do score so the progression fits.

Is that area of extreme neg anomalies over Europe/Scandinavia a function of the SWE do you think? That is quite a neg anomaly right there.

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10 minutes ago, gopper said:

But this is practically the end of January!  I sure hope the pattern does not break down fast!

Why? We can't even score in a good pattern it seems. Heck, if we don't score over the next 2 weeks which takes us to the 24th I say reshuffle the deck and hope we back into something in some oddly convoluted pattern with unfavorable tellies.

Eta: ninja'd by @WinterWxLuvr 

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