psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 5 minutes ago, jaydreb said: 12z GEFS supports the OP for Day 7-9. Mix of good hits and rainers. Rain is a legit threat in this type setup BUT so long as the trough doesn’t go negative before our longitude and the surface low gets to the coast before turning north we would be ok. We have had plenty of nice snowstorms with this look. ETA: what I mean is yea if the storm cuts inland because the trough went negative too far west it would rain. And that “could” happen. But the scenario the GFS showed where everything went exactly how we want and the storm came up off the coast and it still rained...that’s nonsense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Rain is a legit threat in this type setup BUT so long as the trough doesn’t go negative before our longitude and the surface low gets to the coast before turning north we would be ok. We have had plenty of nice snowstorms with this look. ETA: what I mean is yea if the storm cuts inland because the trough went negative too far west it would rain. And that “could” happen. But the scenario the GFS showed where everything went exactly how we want and the storm came up off the coast and it still rained...that’s nonsense. Wonder the impact of the SST profile in the Atlantic. It is much warmer. Blue wave noted that many inland runners, coastal huggers may be due to the shift in Atlantic SST anomalies. I mean really, everything is a hot mess these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 Para gfs fringes us with back to back storms because the TPV dives in slightly further east which is possible too at that range. A good longwave pattern gets us in the game but details that cannot be seen at range will determine the specific outcome of synoptic events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 Last observation for now...the Uber long range look with a western trough but a west based -NAO and 50/50 is one where we can get front end thumps to dry slot type storms. The mean track will try to be to our west but that’s a pretty good CAD setup and not just weak insitu type that would lead to the type where it’s really hard to dislodge and we can do some frozen with a track pretty far NW track. Before that I see 2 discreet threat windows. The one around the 19 and another a few days later. The TPV gets further displaced and slides into SE Canada or even into the 50/50. That’s a more canonical (recently) big snowstorm look. The look is much better on the GFS guidance then the euro so hopefully it scores the coup here. The euro isn’t awful and a slight adjustment away but it sets up the trough too far west for the 19th and then goes too heavy with the trough out west after that. It’s a balancing act like a see saw. With a -NAO we can overcome a -pna to a point but if the western trough goes totally ape it becomes harder. Luckily the euro still has a bias I believe of doing that, I’ve noticed it still seems that way recently anecdotally. So for now Im cautiously optimistic in a more gfs like progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 i said i will be back when there is a threat.......we still seem to not be able to get any model to show blue over us. That is very discouraging. Im out 1 1 3 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 10 minutes ago, Ji said: i said i will be back when there is a threat.......we still seem to not be able to get any model to show blue over us. That is very discouraging. Im out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 11 minutes ago, Ji said: i said i will be back when there is a threat.......we still seem to not be able to get any model to show blue over us. That is very discouraging. Im out Welcome back! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 19 minutes ago, Ji said: i said i will be back when there is a threat.......we still seem to not be able to get any model to show blue over us. That is very discouraging. Im out Welcome back. That was a really long 22 hours. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 21 minutes ago, Ji said: i said i will be back when there is a threat.......we still seem to not be able to get any model to show blue over us. That is very discouraging. Im out As you say...replace the H’s with the L’s and we are in great shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 Euro looks nothing like GFS for MLK weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 Long range guidance just doesn't seem to want to strengthen the western ridge enough for our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 And yet the ground truth is about the same in many spots lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 DR. No has spoken...WB 12Z GFS, Can, and EURO for the 19th storm or lack of one.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: And yet the ground truth is about the same in many spots lol And that’s because this is not a proven predictive asset. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 Wow. Thanks Will. I wonder which has the better handle on things? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 1. Is Euro on its own? If yes, go to 2. 2. Does Euro show snow? If yes, go to 3. If no, go to 4. 3. It’s wrong. 4. It’s right. 2 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 9 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Long range guidance just doesn't seem to want to strengthen the western ridge enough for our region. The euro doesn’t that’s for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 Euro is all NS vorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Wow. Thanks Will. I wonder which has the better handle on things? Let’s see what 12Z EPS says but I would not bet against it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 5 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: And that’s because this is not a proven predictive asset. DUDE...did you just imply the NAM state doesn’t correlate to snowfall here? (For the record it is the #1 correlation to DC snow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 Just now, Weather Will said: Let’s see what 12Z EPS says but I would not bet against it.... Nope. A CMC, Icon, GFSx2 is still not enough when Euro shows nothing. And it shows not even a hint of anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 To keep my expectations in check, I refuse to get head faked by the deterministic models outside 5 days anymore. If their respective ensembles show some support, I keep an eye on it.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: Euro is all NS vorts. There is a lot wrong with that euro op run. It shunts the majority of the next heat flux from the WAR off to the east and does not develop a true Greenland block. The NAO is weakly negative but it’s muted compared to other guidance (and the previous EPS runs frankly). The pna ridge is also shallow. The result of those two factors is the trough in the east has less amplitude (less depth) and so nothing digs enough to tap gulf moisture or amplify. This the all NS result you observe. Let’s see if the EPS agrees. The EPS hasn’t looked as good as the GEFS but it wasn’t that steaming pile of garbage either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 Btw after looking like a wreck the other day the GEPS has trended to the GEFS and has a very nice look days 7-16 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 25 minutes ago, Weather Will said: DR. No has spoken...WB 12Z GFS, Can, and EURO for the 19th storm or lack of one.... h when the euro is the only model that dosent show snow..it dosent snow. When its the only model to show snow, it dosent snow 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 The 12z GFS is killing me... weenies in NC are crying tears of joy. 12 ParaGFS though, I’m crying tears of joy. That was awesome. Aaaanyways... probably back to regularly scheduled programming at 18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 1 minute ago, Prestige Worldwide said: The EPS says bring on the SER Boo hiss 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said: The EPS says bring on the SER That sounds like a pant load of fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 Maybe a little SER is helpful. Keep any would be lows closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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