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BullCityWx

January 8th-9th threat

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I have been MIA being too busy to get on here. My call at this point is:

Western Mountains of NC to Pilot Mountain/Hanging Rock,  and adjacent VA: 3-6 (locally 8) inches

Triad to Danviile VA: 1-3 (locally 4) inches

RDU: Dusting to an inch

South and east of there: token flakes at the end

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2 minutes ago, eyewall said:

I have been MIA being too busy to get on here. My call at this point is:

Western Mountains of NC to Pilot Mountain/Hanging Rock,  and adjacent VA: 3-6 (locally 8) inches

Triad to Danviile VA: 1-3 (locally 4) inches

RDU: Dusting to an inch

South and east of there: token flakes at the end

That looks very reasonable.

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37 minutes ago, JoshWeather said:

Had 27 on the car in N. Durham this morning.  25 in southern person county.  Quite chilly.  Hoping my move from Stallings to Durham earlier this year proves fruitful in the snow department.  In my 7 years in stallings i think we saw a total of 5 inches of snow.

Hey man! What part of north Durham? We’re in Greymoss.

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Kind of surprised at the limited number of watch/warning/advisory counties in NC, SC & GA with this coming system.  Thought it would be a bit more expansive

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4 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

Hey man! What part of north Durham? We’re in Greymoss.

Nice, we moved due to me getting a job that paid alot more for the time being and we were looking to rent a house in that area just off of rose of sharon but ended up settling on one off of Infinity, so i'm not far from you...we'll likely see very similar outcomes with whatever happens!  

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Just now, CaryWx said:

Kind of surprised at the limited number of watch/warning/advisory counties in NC, SC & GA with this coming system.  Thought it would be a bit more expansive

Still a lot up in the air.  They will expand as necessary this evening or even tomorrow morning.

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Welp they did, made it to 32 and got a thick cloud deck. Gonna be a struggle to hit that 45 today. We will see how this affects tonight. To me around here its one of the most under rated factors is capping the cold or max warning before cloud deck roll in

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This is a friendly reminder that those of us east of I-77 are going to have to be really patient tomorrow.  There will be some cliff diving by lunchtime on Friday, but we will get something out of this by Friday night.  Just hang in there.

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4 minutes ago, Snow dog said:

Wow-the NAM must not have been too good...very little discussion about it!

I wouldn't say that

image.thumb.png.c33bba20e9140fd2c5c007814e193c54.png

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5 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

Question, is which is more accurate at this range at predicting moisture envelope?

As one of the mets posted on here the other day, the 12 km NAM is usually pretty goofy with its surface depiction. It is bad about displaying widespread QPF as one consistent mass. The 3km is higher resolution and it is usually has a reasonably accurate depiction of reflectivity in that there will be bands, not one continuous mass of precipitation in this system.

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I still think the precip will be more expansive into Virginia than what the NAM/3k NAM models are showing. I've clicked thorough just about all other hi-res guidance and it does not have that sharp northern cutoff. I'll be very surprised if it indeed shuts off right at the VA/NC border.  

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1 hour ago, JoshWeather said:

Nice, we moved due to me getting a job that paid alot more for the time being and we were looking to rent a house in that area just off of rose of sharon but ended up settling on one off of Infinity, so i'm not far from you...we'll likely see very similar outcomes with whatever happens!  

Yeah, that isnt far at all. We honestly wanted to be more in town but couldnt bring ourselves to spend what you'd need to spend on a house in Trinity Park or Old West Durham. You're gonna do much better here than Stallings in general. if you want to do some research as to how things usually go up here, ABC11 has video on YouTube from the December 2018 storm. 

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3k showing heavy rain in some areas where it should be snow (and the sounding says it’s snow), which could explain some of the odd totals or lack thereof in certain areas.

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These ULL situations are modeled so much better than so many other winter storms. Details certainly have changed run to run and if you’re living and dying by snow maps you’re probably on about you last thread by this point but the storm track and most other synoptic features have been locked in for several days. Forecasting the mesoscale environment and features will be the challenge for sure and that’s ultimately what will define this storm but overall I can go back 3-4 days and models don’t look much different than they do now

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19 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

Latest NWS GSP Probabilistic Snowfall Forecast:

 

 

Showing the upper pop around south mountains but still no love for this area. 

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