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BullCityWx

January 8th-9th threat

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7 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

image.thumb.png.14a4acee9478d33ff16a663cebfd7078.png

I will take my chances with that sounding.

Need that sw to dive more. DGZ is relatively dry.

About the only thing that you will get is rain with a few mangled flakes. 

 

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I’m sorry that is focused on the mid Atlantic but you get totals with that map and not the others. The non mean map is also 10:1 which is very optimistic. I’d guess 7:1. Still if you half it, it’s a decent event.

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Well I'm hopeful for this one here in the NE GA mountains while atmittedly concerned about the borderline temps. I'm just happy that what comes after this over the coming weeks should only get better, and we're not staring at this marginal event as our only foreseeable hope.

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Even know that these snow maps look nice, don’t be surprised if there’s a lot more sleet than modeled due to the low level warm nose. Obviously if ULL shifted south, it would as well. I’m optimistic, but not married to our chances.

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Just now, Ollie_Williams said:

Even know that these snow maps look nice, don’t be surprised if there’s a lot more sleet than modeled due to the low level warm nose. Obviously if ULL shifted south, it would as well. I’m optimistic, but not married to our chances.

That's the thing about it. 

Most of the soundings indicate atm very little sleet probabilities.  Its either rain or snow.

Either the surface supports a snow sounding and upper levels too dry or upper levels support cold enough to but boundary layers too warm.

Not much  in between 

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2 minutes ago, FLweather said:

That's the thing about it. 

Most of the soundings indicate atm very little sleet probabilities.  Its either rain or snow.

Either the surface supports a snow sounding and upper levels too dry or upper levels support cold enough to but boundary layers too warm.

Not much  in between 

Reminds me of the late 80s storms. very thin transition line .

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18 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

Reminds me of the late 80s storms. very thin transition line .

A ULL will almost deliver. Just depends where you are. 

As long as the mid level and surface level not spaced out.

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0z NAM @ 84. This looks promising.  Sfc low over MSY.  Pretty nice phase setting up and with the low heights over the N Atlantic it can't pull it up north.

500hv-conus.png

ref1km-ptype-conus.png

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1 minute ago, Wow said:

This looks promising.  Sfc low over MSY

500hv-conus.png

What is that from? Looks like the nam 

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Just now, FLweather said:

What is that from? Looks like the nam 

top right corner will verify that ;) 

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It's a beautiful setup there with the ULL.  0z NAM is slower with wrapping up the ULL show the sfc low track is going to stay well south.  Should be a classic miller A track there.   I'm trying to find a good analog storm here.. perhaps March '09 with with a 50/50 low in place!

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19 minutes ago, Wow said:

It's a beautiful setup there with the ULL.  0z NAM is slower with wrapping up the ULL show the sfc low track is going to stay well south.  Should be a classic miller A track there.   I'm trying to find a good analog storm here.. perhaps March '09 with with a 50/50 low in place!

I will take a hard pass on that analog.  See that downsloping area with no snow cover? That's MBY. Agonizing storm after multiple awful winters here. 

rah.modis.20090303.merged.med.large.png

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