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BullCityWx

January 8th-9th threat

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3 minutes ago, yotaman said:

Me thinks a lot of people will be disappointed when they wake up tomorrow morning and thru out the day.

Sounds to me like you've been reading that special weather book written by some crusty old lifetime North Carolinian called "33 and rain: A story of my life and North Carolina Winter Weather".  Most of us have that book on the shelf in these parts and drag it out at least once each year.  :lol:

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10 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

15z RAP Kuchera d40359aac9a564043afc9ee2db26b957.jpg

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You wanna be careful with the RAP because it's really bad that far out in it's run. 

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17 minutes ago, yotaman said:

Me thinks a lot of people will be disappointed when they wake up tomorrow morning and thru out the day.

No risk no reward, I figure.

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1 minute ago, BullCityWx said:

You wanna be careful with the RAP because it's really bad that far out in it's run. 

Oddly enough, if you take DT's call map and slide it 50-75 miles southwest like I said earlier you end up with what looks like the RAP forecast here.  I can easily see this being our outcome.

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2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

That far out? So is it best to use once the storm starts? :lol:

It’s what they call a real-time model.  It takes the radar and other readings and tells you what’s going on at the current moment.  Fascinating stuff.  :P

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3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

That far out? So is it best to use once the storm starts? :lol:

Well it was designed for short term use like the old RUC. The further out it got, the less reliable it is to use kinda like the 48 hr HRRR.

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1 hour ago, kvegas-wx said:

Jackpotting a foot just south of GSO??  Nice!  But the RGEM may be flying solo on this one.  Not a lot of support elsewhere.

Check please!   (15 miles south of GSO)  :lol:

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Warm nose , from my experience ,  is an issue in the southern piedmont  from the SC/NC line up to roughly China Grove. Salisbury normally manages to stay mostly snow! BUT, as another poster said, heavy precip at the onset will make all the difference!

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5 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said:

It’s what they call a real-time model.  It takes the radar and other readings and tells you what’s going on at the current moment.  Fascinating stuff.  :P

Wouldn't it be called the RTM instead of RAP then?:P

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The Canadian was a very good run for N.C. the Triad into SW Va would have warning level snows and the triangle would be advisory level for the most part. Gets that deform band going and goes across the whole state pretty much. Amounts not high East of Triad but widespread snow, and less splotchy. Sorry upstate, tho 

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6 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Wouldn't it be called the RTM instead of RAP then?:P

stock ticker methodology

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UKMet looks like a good compromise to me in terms of how the precip will progress...it's kind of in between the more north Canadian modeling (CMC/RGEM) and the farther south American modeling (GFS/NAM) from the 12z runs.  You see the trailing batch of precip associated with the closed upper low roll thru west to east across NC at the end.  Challenge is figuring out the precip type / precip type changeover, then how much will accumulate based on rates, snow ratio, and surface temps.

To7G4ut.gif

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26 minutes ago, davenc said:

Warm nose , from my experience ,  is an issue in the southern piedmont  from the SC/NC line up to roughly China Grove. Salisbury normally manages to stay mostly snow! BUT, as another poster said, heavy precip at the onset will make all the difference!

Lurker since Feb 2014 storm, No truer statement. I grew up in Concord around Afton, always seemed even N Kannapolis/Landis would be much better than my area 5 miles further South lol Then moved to Mount Ulla area did great,  now I live about 3 miles S of Mooresville so I’m curious to see how I hold up here being futher west but slightly further S 

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26 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said:

It’s what they call a real-time model.  It takes the radar and other readings and tells you what’s going on at the current moment.  Fascinating stuff.  :P

I think Pella offers a similar model.

TW

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I think that DT is generally pretty smart and a good forecaster. I may be biased, I think that my first "rodeo" following these things on models and online and in social media was the Boxing Day 2010 storm, where he was issuing those wild probability maps. I still get an adrenaline rush when I see that *ALEET* on my Facebook feed! That being said I do think he inflates numbers a little to get some more social media exposure. Take 30% off his forecast and I think you have a solid call. 

Overall, I think the dye has been cast; There's going to be a front-end push of precip that could start as snow, and if it's heavy/quick enough it may surprise some folks/forecasters. It wouldn't be the first time I've seen that front-end overperform. Now when I say overperform, I mean "maybe an inch before flipping over", not "all snow event that will break forecasts". After a quick dry spell, the comma head will come in Friday night and drag through the northern 2/3s of the state and drop a half inch to an inch of accumulation, maybe a little more if you're lucky and you're sitting in a nice band. It will hopefully be enough to make things look pretty; great weather for sipping scotch. The place to be, I would say, is likely the NC/VA border, specifically near the mountains where elevation will help BL temps. If I were chasing, I would probably find a nice cabin in Fancy Gap. 

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2 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

I think that DT is generally pretty smart and a good forecaster. I may be biased, I think that my first "rodeo" following these things on models and online and in social media was the Boxing Day 2010 storm, where he was issuing those wild probability maps. I still get an adrenaline rush when I see that *ALEET* on my Facebook feed! That being said I do think he inflates numbers a little to get some more social media exposure. Take 30% off his forecast and I think you have a solid call. 

Overall, I think the dye has been cast; There's going to be a front-end push of precip that could start as snow, and if it's heavy/quick enough it may surprise some folks/forecasters. It wouldn't be the first time I've seen that front-end overperform. Now when I say overperform, I mean "maybe an inch before flipping over", not "all snow event that will break forecasts". After a quick dry spell, the comma head will come in Friday night and drag through the northern 2/3s of the state and drop a half inch to an inch of accumulation, maybe a little more if you're lucky and you're sitting in a nice band. It will hopefully be enough to make things look pretty; great weather for sipping scotch. The place to be, I would say, is likely the NC/VA border, specifically near the mountains where elevation will help BL temps. If I were chasing, I would probably find a nice cabin in Fancy Gap. 

Good post.  In fairness to DT, who I like to criticize, his first guess maps are usually inflated like you said but he does a good job of realizing his mistakes and makes major changes to later calls.  I've been dinged too many times by his early calls in my area that are way too high.  I've learned....

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