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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021


jburns
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I absolutely love the enthusiasm in here but I just feel burned so many times I can’t really believe it until it gets much closer. I def agree with everyone that the big dogs are most def modeled further out than others. @BullCityWx @ILMRoss @burrel2 @eyewall if you guys want 30” and I can get a foot by all means let’s make a deal!

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45 minutes ago, griteater said:

My mother is from South GA (Tifton). We have to work hard for our snow in the lowlands around here 

I know Tifton very well. Grew up in Moultrie right down the road.

Was a little guy in 89 when they last got a good snow.

Fingers crossed something big comes to fruition here in NC after that GFS teaser.

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5 minutes ago, wake4est said:

Lol I’ve seen this before. The GFS, from 4 years ago today for roughly the same time frame as the monster run from this afternoon.

 

I don;t remember anything of note from Feb 2016 so I am guessing this disappeared into nothingness.

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11 minutes ago, wake4est said:

Lol I’ve seen this before. The GFS, from 4 years ago today for roughly the same time frame as the monster run from this afternoon.

B30B2454-E879-4E9F-A679-B2529D8C06E4.jpeg

That was a 336 without any support I recall from the other LR models

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Main difference between the 18z gfs and other fantasy runs is that it's *plausible*. Star of this show is a big high that has great Op and Ensemble support for 9 days out. Anything that runs into it, or underneath it, has the potential to be big. I think most people grasp that yeah, that run was a perfect storm, and future renditions will be less than perfect. 00z GFS could be very disappointing! But let's go ahead and stake out that this has more credence than your typical fantasyland snow dumper.

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Tim Buckley was asked on social media why the models have seemed to be more inaccurate this year. His response was interesting and I was unaware of this

"Well, winter fake outs are nothing new - but the more you pay attention the more you get disappointed. A real issue this year though is that there are many fewer airplanes in the air due to COVID. Weather data from planes goes into feeding computer models with important observations, so their predictions have been more chaotic and less accurate than usual."

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1 minute ago, StoneColdWeatherAustin said:

Tim Buckley was asked on social media why the models have seemed to be more inaccurate this year. His response was interesting and I was unaware of this

"Well, winter fake outs are nothing new - but the more you pay attention the more you get disappointed. A real issue this year though is that there are many fewer airplanes in the air due to COVID. Weather data from planes goes into feeding computer models with important observations, so their predictions have been more chaotic and less accurate than usual."

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he's totally right and even though i dont have charts offhand model verification scores did take a plunge right around early-mid march

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