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MN Transplant

December 16/17 Winter Event

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3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Just a tad too much emotion if i'm being honest but I'm sure you have a handle on this thing at this point

I leave emotion out of the forecast. I’m helping emergency managers make decisions so must remove emotion and put analysis and facts on the table.no emotion in my post, just facts.

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1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

Just a tad too much emotion if i'm being honest but I'm sure you have a handle on this thing at this point

he isn't going to Sully us into the potomac.  This is straight up air florida

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2 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

I leave emotion out of the forecast. I’m helping emergency managers make decisions so must remove emotion and put analysis and facts on the table.no emotion in my post, just facts.

Well then I guess my emotion detector is off. Good luck with your forecast and stay safe

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GGEM notice how the purple line holds steady in every other area, while it keeps chipping away in the DC area.

vC4btvs.gif

 

 

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I jinxed things with my map.  Might need to update.  Birds gonna need to work overtime 

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38 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

How about we wait before you bless us with lessons. And CAD doesn’t usually apply in situations where lows run the Piedmont 

Lot of hot takes here today.  Got accused of "cliff diving" or whatever because I'm a lifelong residents of these here parts, and I've seen this movie a million times and I know how it works out.   People know I don't just give up easily...shit sometimes I'm the last man standing when everyone bails.  But this one doesn't feel right...I'm talking for us 95/DC folks.   For you...kick back, open up a can of your favorite brew and get ready for the show.    

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7 minutes ago, Amped said:

GGEM notice how the purple line holds steady in every other area, while it keeps chipping away in the DC area.

vC4btvs.gif

 

 

Chipping away a lot in the Baltimore area as well, especially the most recent run. Ouch. I think we can all see where this is going.

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4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Lot of hot takes here today.  Got accused of "cliff diving" or whatever because I'm a lifelong residents of these here parts, and I've seen this movie a million times and I know how it works out.   People know I don't just give up easily...shit sometimes I'm the last man standing when everyone bails.  But this one doesn't feel right...I'm talking for us 95/DC folks.   For you...kick back, open up a can of your favorite brew and get ready for the show.    

I still think we at least cover the ground and get a fair amount of sleet. 

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4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Lot of hot takes here today.  Got accused of "cliff diving" or whatever because I'm a lifelong residents of these here parts, and I've seen this movie a million times and I know how it works out.   People know I don't just give up easily...shit sometimes I'm the last man standing when everyone bails.  But this one doesn't feel right...I'm talking for us 95/DC folks.   For you...kick back, open up a can of your favorite brew and get ready for the show.    

Don't think anyone could've said it better than this. For the past few days, even when the GFS and even the Euro were showing decent outputs, we were still walking between raindrops. No 100% consensus, still NW solutions, and plenty of time for the typical NW jog. It's also just a product of the time of year, we're still a month and change away from prime snow climo. Just gotta pack up and move on, hopefully this pattern delivers for the people who have been snow droughted the most (just looking forward, the EPS has a bundle of lows centered around Indiana on Christmas day :pepsi:)

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15 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Well then I guess my emotion detector is off. Good luck with your forecast and stay safe

There was no ill will intended at all.

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43 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I mentioned it at 18z yesterday. I was told the models still had enough precip to support December 2009 totals across the land. LOL

The GFS is by far the lowest. It will adjust. Every other model has a qpf max of 2”+. There will be 20” totals from this storm it just won’t be over us.  The Max is likely up in PA. That’s our problem...not qpf. 

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As a warminista near DCA, fit me into the "just where I want it" bingo square.

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We never want to be on the southern edge of the heavy snow 4-5 days out.  Always better to pull for the north trend.  But never felt confident about this one. 

Bright side is even the local ski areas should do pretty well so maybe can be open for business in time for X-mas!  

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20 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Lot of hot takes here today.  Got accused of "cliff diving" or whatever because I'm a lifelong residents of these here parts, and I've seen this movie a million times and I know how it works out.   People know I don't just give up easily...shit sometimes I'm the last man standing when everyone bails.  But this one doesn't feel right...I'm talking for us 95/DC folks.   For you...kick back, open up a can of your favorite brew and get ready for the show.    

Well said. I am 57 and lived here my entire life loving snow. Can’t tell you how many times back in the mid 70s the famous “Heavy Snow Warning” was issued for 4-6 inches. After no snow I would get the update. How?  Calling 936-1212. Then would be crushed to hear the  revised forecast of a Travelers Advisory for 1-3. And reality would end up being 0. Many years later the drill might be different but the results frequently the same. 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The GFS is by far the lowest. It will adjust. Every other model has a qpf max of 2”+. There will be 20” totals from this storm it just won’t be over us.  The Max is likely up in PA. That’s our problem...not qpf. 

 

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

CMC is wetter than the GFS. 1.3 out here for the event. A foot is still on the table for the 81 corridor.

I agree. I feel like QPF will not be a factor this go around. Still see the 1.5"+ up and down shen valley.

My wag is that the lp placement is too tucked with some of these latest runs. The speed of the system seems to be increasing each model run. I think best case for dc -- 20 miles west, will be the low placement staying a little further east and cold air hanging as long as possible. My initial call from 4 days ago still stands 2-6 dc area, Leesburg 6-12, Winchester to the mountains 12+. Hard to beat climo around here.

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If this ends up continuing trending poorly, I'd have to hand it to the GFS-Para (GFSv16), it's been saying rain/sleet for I95 for days.

 

Edit: Should mention that it handled things quite poorly in other ways

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3 minutes ago, H2O said:

Remember that in the list of useful models the UKMET wasn't very high.

Yep, acknowledged as much in my post. Just passing time. Anyways, MSLP track looks better but it's still warm. Guessing it won't make any friends in this subforum when the snow maps come out.

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5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

To my untrained eye the track of the low on the UKMET looks better. But as @MillvilleWx mentioned last night, might as well be shaking a magic eight ball.

GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif

0DQuC7i.gif

Looks like the low is at the bench mark in panel one and moves NNE while deepening.  If that happened verbatim and i get heavy rain, congrats Mother Nature lol.

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