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Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020


wdrag
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18 minutes ago, Juturna said:

Everyone jumping ship from one run to the next

It's not jumping ship. The trends have moved away from big snows at the coast, it's not just one run. 

As I said last night, this is looking like a quick 4-8 inch thump around the city then dryslot or switch to sleet or drizzle. The forecasted 12+ inch amounts seem highly unrealistic unless you're 30-50 miles north of the city.

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The models are more tucked in with the low than just a few days ago. The ridge east of New England is a little stronger. This has been a recent theme. So the trough goes neg tilt quicker allowing mixing issues to arise after the initial front end thump.

New run

DCC2EC83-CF42-4168-A52C-7D95095C651F.thumb.png.628d2279ed1f730de9b5fd899f5430a3.png

Old run

D86233DA-2E15-45F3-932A-97DA7966DDE2.thumb.png.d2579ca7caf889ff9e868c498b9c3c99.png

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3 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

It's not jumping ship. The trends have moved away from big snows at the coast, it's not just one run. 

As I said last night, this is looking like a quick 4-8 inch thump around the city. The forecasted 12+ inch amounts seem highly unrealistic unless you're 30-50 miles north of the city.

Which would be more in keeping with history. Honestly, these big totals really aren't normal for the NYC area, even in the dead of winter most years. We had some freakish winters in the 2000's. We've just seen two winters with hardly a flake. 3-6 will still be amazing. But of course, even that can fall apart, and I have seen that so many times...southeast winds, warm air aloft, etc all add up to not a big snow, or even any snow; could be all sleet. Seen it often, but it is usually better forecast than this. There have been too many calls for huge storms over the years for the city that just haven't come to fruition. That said, anything can still happen....

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Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Gfs is clueless. Nam might be too overdoing it but the trend is real. 

Confluence also seems to be leaving as the NAM brings in the storm which allows it to cut even further. Hopefully this is one of those overamped NAM runs. Verbatim that would probably be a few hour dumping of whatever then a dry slot from hell for many of us. 

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Just now, jm1220 said:

Confluence also seems to be leaving as the NAM brings in the storm which allows it to cut even further. Hopefully this is one of those overamped NAM runs. Verbatim that would probably be a few hour dumping of whatever then a dry slot from hell for many of us. 

Yeah, this would be over by midnight Thursday if true

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4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This seems like the classic storm.

Snow  to dry slot

Few inches for the coast 

Watch the dew points tomorrow morning.

If they're really low (single digits) then it could mean the low will end up further offshore due to the strong press of the high north. 

We've seen last minute corrections east in these CAD setups. 

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2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Which would be more in keeping with history. Honestly, these big totals really aren't normal for the NYC area, even in the dead of winter most years. We had some freakish winters in the 2000's. We've just seen two winters with hardly a flake. 3-6 will still be amazing. But of course, even that can fall apart, and I have seen that so many times...southeast winds, warm air aloft, etc all add up to not a big snow, or even any snow; could be all sleet. Seen it often, but it is usually better forecast than this. There have been too many calls for huge storms over the years for the city that just haven't come to fruition. That said, anything can still happen....

It’d be hard not to get at least 3-6 unless the front end dump somehow doesn’t materialize but with waa ramming into a cold airmass I can almost guarantee at minimum a front end dump. 

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3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Yea it’s brutal to live at the coast. Great stretch 2010-2014 but other than that yuck. 

In my area we actually don't do well when the coast does; and also don't do well when NW does....the geography of the area near the mouth of the Raritan seems to miss out when the coast gets dumped on and the storms move east before getting to us; when storms are mostly NW ( in terms of snow ) and there is coastal influence, we are close enough for that mix line to cut our totals. Actually, this makes many people around here thankful....

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1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

Yea it’s brutal to live at the coast. Great stretch 2010-2014 but other than that yuck. 

I'm not convinced it's amped like this NAM run and it's known to overdo things every once in a while but the trends down here aren't great. Hopefully the RGEM/Euro hold to their track or tick a little SE and the GFS holds. A 6" or so snow/sleetpack a week from now that froze into cement might not be the worst thing. The NAM verbatim though means 3-5" of garbage for most unless you're north of the Tappan Zee. 

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Just now, e46and2 said:

lol.  obviously said by someone who doesn't live on the coast.  we've dominated the decade here in the long island snowbelt of the north shore.

I have lived almost my whole life on the coast despite my name. You’re right north shore of LI has done really well in some events but I still stand by what I said. 

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1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

In my area we actually don't do well when the coast does; and also don't do well when NW does....the geography of the area near the mouth of the Raritan seems to miss out when the coast gets dumped on and the storms move east before getting to us; when storms are mostly NW ( in terms of snow ) and there is coastal influence, we are close enough for that mix line to cut our totals. Actually, this makes many people around here thankful....

That actually sounds like a snow lovers hell. I'd move.

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