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weatherbear5

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  1. weatherbear5
    In the wise words of my girlfriend, “size isn’t everything”
  2. weatherbear5
    Sandy was a HUGE storm with a huge wind field, this is a relatively tiny storm with a small wind field, not surprised the waves are much smaller that stationary rain band was what I was worried about. LBI looks like it’s getting hammered
  3. weatherbear5
    If this thing does end up stalling like the NAM suggests, wherever those bands pivot and train over are gonna be in trouble… I think there’s at least a chance that happens over the island, which is where my comment about “severe flooding” from before came from of course, it could also stall with the bands north of the Island as well
  4. weatherbear5
    I’d wager someplace on the Island will see a foot plus of rain
  5. weatherbear5
    I’m beginning to get VERY worried about severe flooding on the Island… this could be very bad… And with that threat, even if winds aren’t that strong they could still take down trees
  6. weatherbear5
    Well yeah, my point was at this point in time it wasn’t crazy. With that being said, it looks as good as it has structurally, and convection is finally starting to burst in the southern half of the eye wall… need to watch this closely since if it does manage to strengthen rapidly it would change the equation
  7. weatherbear5
    18z GFS had it at 984 at 00z, doesn’t seem like it was unexpected
  8. weatherbear5
    Let’s see if that deep convection that fired in the southern eye wall can wrap around the eye. Seems like it may be trying to ward off some dry air. If it can do so, it still has some room to strengthen
  9. weatherbear5
    Deep convection just fired along the southern edge of the eye. We’re not out of the woods yet when it comes to potentially strengthening
  10. weatherbear5
    Pretty much right on the Nassau/Suffolk border starting to accumulate on the driveway now
  11. weatherbear5
    All snow here in NW Suffolk doesnt appear to be sticking to anything attm though
  12. weatherbear5
    Yeah. Water on ice = crazy correlation coefficients
  13. weatherbear5
    I think you’re confusing the mixing ratio line with the 0C temperature line
  14. weatherbear5
    Looking at soundings, that could easily be FRZA
  15. weatherbear5
    On Tidbits it’s only “model derived”. That map is 10-1 also, it only seems to show rain and snow. 2-M temps are below freezing verbatim, even on the Island until after 12z Tuesday
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