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weatherbear5

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  1. weatherbear5

    March 20th-22nd Not So Suppressed Storm Obs

    In NW Suffolk where pretty much where the western edge of the heaviest of the death band that crushed Islip was. I like the orientation of this band and it extends back into CT
  2. weatherbear5

    March 20th-22nd Not So Suppressed Storm Obs

    I'm just west of you, and I'm sitting watching every frame. It's slow in its northward progress, but whoever gets in that band before it stops will get absolutely crushed
  3. You can see the wave of more sustained heavier precip developing near the strengthening low and rotating northward into the area as the day progresses. Heres hoping we all do well
  4. It's absurd in a good way. 1.75" LE popping up on LI and still snowing at a good clip verbatim
  5. weatherbear5

    March 20th-22nd Not So Suppressed Storm Obs

    Despite the radar presentation it's been all snow here in Huntington as far as i can see. Side roads are becoming covered already, which took much heavier rates in previous storms to accomplish
  6. It's laughable the thermal profile differences between the NAM and GFS at this range... doesn't make a difference City westward, but from the Nassau/Suffolk border eastward it starts to matter more and more each mile
  7. While this is true, comparing it to the 18z I don't see the super heavy rates the older run had... seems to me like it may have cut back QPF wise, though we won't know for sure until we get the map
  8. The NAM continues to be a warm outlier in terms of the mid-levels over LI... it's a crazy difference between that and the globals but I've said it multiple times, do not underestimate that WAA. Still a great run, but you lose a good bit of LE to sleet in central LI
  9. I knew I hated daylight savings... first it steals an hour of sleep and now it's stealing my snow
  10. Good point, I should have clarified I was basing it on 12k NAM, not 3K which is undoubtedly more sleety. My rule of thumb is to be cautious with large isothermal layers. The fact that it exists is indicative of melting in that layer. That, combined with my observations about undergoing mid-level WAA makes me weary of more sleet (for a brief time) on the 12k NAM. Overall though, even with that concern my forecast is 7-14 and feel as though even if my concerns verified about the sleet, it would still be good for the lower end of the range. If it weren't for the sleet concern I'd probably go 10-16. I think we're in a good spot in NW Suffolk
  11. If I were a betting man, I'd wager that you are well underdone on LI. But, I'm certainly not one to judge, and should sleet overperform my expectations that certainly could verify. personally, I think a general 7-14 inches covers the western 2/3rds of the Island, outside of maybe the immediate south shore... these areas maybe it's more like 4-8 or something...Heaviest totals would be on the grass, with the lower end or maybe even a few inches lower on pavement. i pulled the NAM soundings from coordinates in NW Suffolk, and, verbatim, there's a 3 hour window between 18-21z where it looks isothermal along the 0C between 875 and 775... a line which is a dangerous line to walk, though the heaviest precip is after this point anyway. that being said, other than that the soundings don't look terribly sleety. I pulled meteograms from KOKX (which is the old OKX, not Islip) and it showed that the precip was overwhelmingly snow... how good The algorithm is, I'm not sure but we'll find out. as I alluded to earlier, my main concern is sleet. Often times models will underdo WAA in the mid levels which does scare me. However, seeing as how the NAM appears to be the warmest aloft combined with the sheer Amount of liquid progged to fall, I think it will overcome those limitations While I think and hope that your map busts, thanks for the work you put in with your posts, and the effort you put into making maps in the first place. It certainly makes the forums a better place when people put in a bunch of effort
  12. Yeah, meteograms for NYC at least show temps being similar, maybe slightly warmer. Was trying to compare the 6 hour maps, but that can be tough. Maybe it is further east though
  13. Correct me if I'm mistaken Rjay, but it seems to me like 850s are even slightly colder than 00z on the UKie
  14. Will have to wait for total QPF, but it looks as though the UKIE at least held serve for coastal locales
  15. UKMET looks rather similar to 00zz...is a tick weaker and SW of 00z by hour 48 as the low occludes precip should be out soon
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