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Typhoon Tip

Dec 5/6th major coastal/ west Atlantic cyclogenesis ...?

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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Reggie with a much more tame solution compared to the NAM. Really gets NNE good,  it extends into ORH county. 

Reggie crushes my veggies. That would bust some birches here.

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13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Once the column saturates ...it'll probably be an isothermal sounding ...  then, if there are super structural mixing events like 'folding' and or entraining more thermodynamically cooler air source form the W/N...  I've seen 34 F blue events starts cobwebbing off of eaves when the storm maxes... Then, when the storm pulls away ...couple click bounce back...

This does get colder by 6 to 10 dm thickness in the 500mb to surface layer, and 850 thermal layout has cold around the backside synoptic layout as it is leaving so...probably this ends up drying out a little over the course of it. 

Yeah that’s what I was thinking. Sometimes the hills cool into upper 20’s and it becomes drier. Need to keep this 31-32

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GFS may undersell dynamic  cooling .

Yeah. You’re seeing the American guidance coming back towards a more zonked solution. The euro might have been all over the place but it was the first to show such a dynamic system. 

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Just now, Allsnow said:

Yeah. You’re seeing the American guidance coming back towards a more zonked solution. The euro might have been all over the place but it was the first to show such a dynamic system. 

Just a bit to far west, But yes.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Banding looks to be western CT into western MA and through NH and Maine. 

This is going to be an interesting system for obvious reasons.

I may not want to trust hydrostatic models once we get inside 36 hours. A system like this is going to be obscene and a non-hydrostatic model might handle it better.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Tough to get much accumulation east of that banding.

Kind of see it on pivotal. It reorganizes east and tries to get ern areas as it parts but whatever. It’s a tough situation to figure out. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

This is going to be an interesting system for obvious reasons.

I may not want to trust hydrostatic models once we get inside 36 hours. A system like this is going to be obscene and a non-hydrostatic model might handle it better.

Yeah agree. You know the srn vort probably will have convection when it hits the Gulf Stream. 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah agree. You know the srn vort probably will have convection when it hits the Gulf Stream. 

The atmosphere is basically imploding over the Cape, lol....that look usually means the hydrostatic models are not going to wrap this up tightly enough.

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

We like banding here.

Got to make sure Luke keeps his head up and doesn’t toss himself into the Connecticut River.

  • Haha 2

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Got to make sure Luke keeps his head up and doesn’t toss himself into the Connecticut River.

Lmao..

 

if we get into the banding he’ll be a kid in a candy shop. 

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