Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Dec 5/6th major coastal/ west Atlantic cyclogenesis ...?


Typhoon Tip
 Share

Recommended Posts

Just now, Wentzadelphia said:

I can’t figure out where to chase. I’m thinking somewhere in NH, but not familiar with the state at all. So I don’t know the elevation nuances, not sure if it matters, but if any pros want to recommend a good easy to travel spot near interstates I’d appreciate it! Coming from Philly

Monadnock State Park in SW NH might be good

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

33 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I like using the 3km once we are inside of 24h. Sometimes it catches a trend before that, but hard to trust it further out.

Yeah.  For complex, synoptic scale upper-air interactions at range I think the hi-res is often a net negative... Not inherently of course, mainly because sampling and parameterization errors can propagate more easily.   Don't get me wrong, I love the nammy as much as anyone, but this would not be the type of event I'd give it too much weight, at least not yet.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

6 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

I can’t figure out where to chase. I’m thinking somewhere in NH, but not familiar with the state at all. So I don’t know the elevation nuances, not sure if it matters, but if any pros want to recommend a good easy to travel spot near interstates I’d appreciate it! Coming from Philly

There are still so many question marks it’s tuff. If it’s a late bloomer you may want to camp out at Wildcat or sneak your way into Maine 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Mets.. I’m assuming this one will be paste for everyone right? No powder 

Once the column saturates ...it'll probably be an isothermal sounding ...  then, if there are super structural mixing events like 'folding' and or entraining more thermodynamically cooler air source form the W/N...  I've seen 34 F blue events starts cobwebbing off of eaves when the storm maxes... Then, when the storm pulls away ...couple click bounce back...

This does get colder by 6 to 10 dm thickness in the 500mb to surface layer, and 850 thermal layout has cold around the backside synoptic layout as it is leaving so...probably this ends up drying out a little over the course of it. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

 

There are still so many question marks it’s tuff. If it’s a late bloomer you may want to camp out at Wildcat or sneak your way into Maine 

If it stays a bit east, I'd want to be in the hills near Sebago up in S ME.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Reggie with a much more tame solution compared to the NAM. Really gets NNE good,  it extends into ORH county. 

Yeah the track is there, but it's just not going nuts with the dynamics. I actually was looking at the soundings on pivotal and it has me raining with 925mb below 0C because it's keeping the sfc near 36-37F with mostly moderate precip rates.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the track is there, but it's just not going nuts with the dynamics. I actually was looking at the soundings on pivotal and it has me raining with 925mb below 0C because it's keeping the sfc near 36-37F with mostly moderate precip rates.

Yeah track is good. But pretty clear the dynamics are needed. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Once the column saturates ...it'll probably be an isothermal sounding ...  then, if there are super structural mixing events like 'folding' and or entraining more thermodynamically cooler air source form the W/N...  I've seen 34 F blue events starts cobwebbing off of eaves when the storm maxes... Then, when the storm pulls away ...couple click bounce back...

This does get colder by 6 to 10 dm thickness in the 500mb to surface layer, and 850 thermal layout has cold around the backside synoptic layout as it is leaving so...probably this ends up drying out a little over the course of it. 

Yeah that’s what I was thinking. Sometimes the hills cool into upper 20’s and it becomes drier. Need to keep this 31-32

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...