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Dec 5/6th major coastal/ west Atlantic cyclogenesis ...?


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Hard sell on weenie map 12''+ amounts outside of the highest elevations. Going to waste some QPF on rain before the CCB gets cranking, and 10:1 is probably generous. Taking the Euro as is I'd probably go for like 4-8'' of paste E of the ORH hills and Monads where the weenie map is printing a foot. 

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe, you need uber dynamics to get much of anything I think. I usually play them conservative when you have a marginal airmass and depending in dynamics. Also, best banding I think is west of us so you need an east tick verbatim on the euro. 

This reminds me a bit of March 2019... that was a storm that looked similar to this if I’m remembering correctly.... it was a very heavy wet snow here... but it trended just cold enough 

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1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This reminds me a bit of March 2019... that was a storm that looked similar to this if I’m remembering correctly.... it was a very heavy wet snow here... but it trended just cold enough 

Better airmass in that. Also, storm not bombing really. This one may nuke, but putrid airmass ahead of it. I honestly have no confidence other than probably a flip to snow towards the end.

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19 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You become numb to it after years of virtual abuse. We need gulf lows Miller A’s like 96 or 16. Once in a blue moon we’ll get the western edge of a Jan 11 or Feb 13 Miller B but those are the exception not the rule. God made the CT river for a reason ha. 

I still wouldnt hold this as gospel. There is still a good chance that where you are in western CT could still get a little more than show ( things could still wobble enough to work in your favor ). All you need is a small.change to bring you back to above 4"

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6 minutes ago, DomNH said:

Hard sell on weenie map 12''+ amounts outside of the highest elevations. Going to waste some QPF on rain before the CCB gets cranking, and 10:1 is probably generous. Taking the Euro as is I'd probably go for like 4-8'' of paste E of the ORH hills and Monads where the weenie map is printing a foot. 

7-9:1

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Does this storm have any similarities to late December 2016? I see similarities in the snowfall maps being posted but I was wondering if the actual storm dynamics were at all similar from someone with more meteorological knowledge. I remember That 2016 storm trended East at the last second and instead of crushing the white mountains it was immediate inland Maine

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Euro drops a 3-spot on me.

I'd take that.

Looks a little low in the hills but that's exactly what I'm getting at. Dynamic blue bombs are fun but this is no October 2011 around here. Thinking a plowable paste vs. paste up to the weenie.

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38 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

No fringing in 13 here bro...we got the mother load.   
 

I think this throws plenty of precip west if that euro stays about where it is now. I’m actually fine where I’m at for this. Being  25 miles east of you I’m in a lil better spot with these.   I’ll take my 5.5 inches the euro spit out and be happy.  

Yup, I will be happy with 3-6", those wanting more can have fun without their power...

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Granted we've shed a tick or two off the 925 mb level temps ... perhaps owing to height falls/dynamic kick-backs... As we suggested over an hour ago, this run may bump east and be more intense.  I don't know - is it more intense?  I mean there's multiple metrics to make the determination - it's not just the pressure depth... but it did bump east. 

Anyway, I think October 2011 may have actually been colder in the 900 mb level ... I have a memory of reading some really exotically ( relative to calendar date) like - 6 C down that deep in the troposphere where the event's CCB axis was channeling...  

I don't know if we are done cooling of this one yet, either - I could see this wavering off another 1.5 in now-cast because those kind of dynamic/discrete feed-backs are not really modeled - not the extent they actually modulate.  The runs just are not that nuanced yet ... give it another 30 years lol.   

Altho - ...sometimes I wonder if they figure out how to control the weather before the models necessarily predict the future - ...  who cares about prediction if we can zap the atmosphere with instructions at quantum scales.  

Hey...bite me - it's good sci fi -

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