HoarfrostHubb Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Enjoy up there I'm so jealous down here Just grab a brew and burger at Mac's Public House on Staten Island 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I think you need to watch. IMO, the euro gives you more than the pretty weenie maps say. ( Luke slowly peels lips off wife’s tailpipe) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Enjoy up there I'm so jealous down here Everyone in the NYC forum and N/W of there are jealous of New Englanders. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 13 minutes ago, dryslot said: Wiggle room to boot. Depends on the size of the wiggles. At times the models' wiggling resembles me trying to shoot - offhand without a rest - a deer facing me and 250 yards away. The crosshairs are on target about 5% of the time and right or left the other 95. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GCWarrior Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Ugh! Euro goes from epic here to a few inches! Seems to be the theme over the last several years. Maybe the GFS will hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Hard sell on weenie map 12''+ amounts outside of the highest elevations. Going to waste some QPF on rain before the CCB gets cranking, and 10:1 is probably generous. Taking the Euro as is I'd probably go for like 4-8'' of paste E of the ORH hills and Monads where the weenie map is printing a foot. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Maybe, you need uber dynamics to get much of anything I think. I usually play them conservative when you have a marginal airmass and depending in dynamics. Also, best banding I think is west of us so you need an east tick verbatim on the euro. This reminds me a bit of March 2019... that was a storm that looked similar to this if I’m remembering correctly.... it was a very heavy wet snow here... but it trended just cold enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: This reminds me a bit of March 2019... that was a storm that looked similar to this if I’m remembering correctly.... it was a very heavy wet snow here... but it trended just cold enough Better airmass in that. Also, storm not bombing really. This one may nuke, but putrid airmass ahead of it. I honestly have no confidence other than probably a flip to snow towards the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 26 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: Everyone west of the River shares your pain. Until tomorrow's trends to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 19 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You become numb to it after years of virtual abuse. We need gulf lows Miller A’s like 96 or 16. Once in a blue moon we’ll get the western edge of a Jan 11 or Feb 13 Miller B but those are the exception not the rule. God made the CT river for a reason ha. I still wouldnt hold this as gospel. There is still a good chance that where you are in western CT could still get a little more than show ( things could still wobble enough to work in your favor ). All you need is a small.change to bring you back to above 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 6 minutes ago, DomNH said: Hard sell on weenie map 12''+ amounts outside of the highest elevations. Going to waste some QPF on rain before the CCB gets cranking, and 10:1 is probably generous. Taking the Euro as is I'd probably go for like 4-8'' of paste E of the ORH hills and Monads where the weenie map is printing a foot. 7-9:1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think you need to watch. IMO, the euro gives you more than the pretty weenie maps say. It’s not the weenie maps, it’s the trends. My advice to you is to watch and have your son’s snowsuit on standby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 4 minutes ago, klw said: Until tomorrow's trends to the west. Find a way to get me 3-5" in the Catskills then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaGrangewx Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Does this storm have any similarities to late December 2016? I see similarities in the snowfall maps being posted but I was wondering if the actual storm dynamics were at all similar from someone with more meteorological knowledge. I remember That 2016 storm trended East at the last second and instead of crushing the white mountains it was immediate inland Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Euro drops a 3-spot on me. I'd take that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Ray, did you do a first call yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Euro drops a 3-spot on me. I'd take that. Those maps always are low . Think Will mentioned it. Others too high , but that is off 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: ( Luke slowly peels lips off wife’s tailpipe) If I can stick them on her tailpipe, I would...we get rejected often. But that doesn’t stop us from trying over and over again. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Euro drops a 3-spot on me. I'd take that. Looking at a sounding here, Its rain at hr 60, Then we flash over at hr 66 thru, So your map is correct, I could take another tic or two east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Euro drops a 3-spot on me. I'd take that. Looks a little low in the hills but that's exactly what I'm getting at. Dynamic blue bombs are fun but this is no October 2011 around here. Thinking a plowable paste vs. paste up to the weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Euro drops a 3-spot on me. I'd take that. Nicer map for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 9 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: Find a way to get me 3-5" in the Catskills then That is probably not happening as things stand right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: That is probably not happening as things stand right now. That ship might of sailed for there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 13 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Ray, did you do a first call yet? Working on it ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 10 minutes ago, DomNH said: Looks a little low in the hills but that's exactly what I'm getting at. Dynamic blue bombs are fun but this is no October 2011 around here. Thinking a plowable paste vs. paste up to the weenie. I think 6"+ is pretty reasonable in the ORH hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 36 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Miller A’s are extinct. I think it was Ray(?) that said this year did not look to favor WNE. You guys will do fine...I just said that often we will see late bloomers target NE of you for most. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think 6"+ is pretty reasonable in the ORH hills. Yeah I'd probably go 6-12'' ORH hills and Monads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 38 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: No fringing in 13 here bro...we got the mother load. I think this throws plenty of precip west if that euro stays about where it is now. I’m actually fine where I’m at for this. Being 25 miles east of you I’m in a lil better spot with these. I’ll take my 5.5 inches the euro spit out and be happy. Yup, I will be happy with 3-6", those wanting more can have fun without their power... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 18 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Nicer map for me. Your looking good I may take a stroll up the Miller state park toll road when I get outta work on noon Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 3, 2020 Author Share Posted December 3, 2020 Granted we've shed a tick or two off the 925 mb level temps ... perhaps owing to height falls/dynamic kick-backs... As we suggested over an hour ago, this run may bump east and be more intense. I don't know - is it more intense? I mean there's multiple metrics to make the determination - it's not just the pressure depth... but it did bump east. Anyway, I think October 2011 may have actually been colder in the 900 mb level ... I have a memory of reading some really exotically ( relative to calendar date) like - 6 C down that deep in the troposphere where the event's CCB axis was channeling... I don't know if we are done cooling of this one yet, either - I could see this wavering off another 1.5 in now-cast because those kind of dynamic/discrete feed-backs are not really modeled - not the extent they actually modulate. The runs just are not that nuanced yet ... give it another 30 years lol. Altho - ...sometimes I wonder if they figure out how to control the weather before the models necessarily predict the future - ... who cares about prediction if we can zap the atmosphere with instructions at quantum scales. Hey...bite me - it's good sci fi - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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