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Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion

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7 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Meh, when has a well phased gulf low bomb out and track through here. GHD?

it's almost like sub 980 150 hr solutions don't always pan out

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Need to wait for 12z Euro and GFS ensembles. Hopefully there will be a continuation of the good phasing trends in the animation that Alek posted yesterday. If not, it’s probably game over. 

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If you're psychologically mind gaming it, not having agreement on the phase at this point isn't the worst thing.  However, you'd want to see that start to turn in the next 24 hours of model runs because we aren't terribly far out from the players starting to get on the field.

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24 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

This morning's UK has trended similarly to the GFS... more positive tilt and east.  UK is a total snow dud.

I’m shocked. It’s so rare for something to go to strung out garbage 

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5 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

I’m shocked. It’s so rare for something to go to strung out garbage 

If only this was a tropical system and we were hoping for rapid intensification

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GFS back shearing trough after trough is an easy toss, that doesn't even make logical sense, it also doesn't have any support of its own ensembles.

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Just now, Stebo said:

GFS back shearing trough after trough is an easy toss, that doesn't even make logical sense, it also doesn't have any support of its own ensembles.

Sitting and spinning in Ohio for 3 days is also pretty odd. Never seen that lol 

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3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Sitting and spinning in Ohio for 3 days is also pretty odd. Never seen that lol 

The leading ridge out ahead of the Low sort of becomes a temporary block (like a West Based -NAO) and the upper level ridge kind of becomes one with the massive PNA ridge out west. That's why it stalls out. Very unusual yeah.

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12 minutes ago, Snownado said:

From like nothing to 18 inches in 30 miles ?

Yeah. I mean that's 100+ hour snow map so it's worth nothing. Most splits here are along I-70 or I-71. I guess a US-23 split might become a thing now.

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The Euro snow map above is only for 24 hours. This thing spins,, as alluded to, for 3 days. Here's the ten day total. If this comes to pass....I will never bitch again about Western Ohio snow holes....(Since it won't I can keep my bitch license). 

sn10_acc.us_ov.png

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