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Baroclinic Zone

Fall Banter and General Discussion

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26 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

They are also culling the homeless due to high rates of spread amongst them. Newsom  said it’s a horrible but necessary decision.

Culling?

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9 hours ago, dendrite said:

I have to protect them from the voles and chippies too. I found that out the hard way the first time I tried it. I may try some of those 4-5ft tree tubes to train them going upward because my other chestnut trees are growing as much outward as upward since they have a wide open field. I'm afraid to prune them and introduce wounds.

Nashville Hickories?

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8 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

For anyone in medicine. I was talking to my brother in laws fiancé, who’s a nurse today. She said people definitely aren’t getting as sick this go around, at least from what she can see. She also said her friend, you is a doctor in NYC believes the virus may have mutated to a less potent strain?

Im not claiming any of this stuff as true or fact, but it’s interesting to here those takes from people in the medical field. I’d also leave open for the fact that treatment and handling of hospitalized cases is probably better now, which may be playing a role in that opinion.

There are definitely more hospitalizations and ICU cases now, but that is probably due more to increased spread. Deaths are up too. 
There are additional treatments and maybe people are realizing they have it sooner?

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Increasing risk of a double dip recession Q1/Q2 2021.
 

Fiscal inaction from a deeply divided congress magnifies the economic consequences (slowdown)  from Covid scaling back economic activity , particularly in the industries currently in severe recession But also as revenue shortfalls begin to lead to their own dominos . 

The next few quarters , the economic pain has a couple paths to climb the socioeconomic ladder And gain market share In the middle class and upper middle class as job losses should regain steam this winter w Covid rises and provide cover for cost cutting measures in middle management and people furloughed as a less enticing view of the recovery comes into focus as well as dealing with revenue shortfalls ..especially in major cities where large local and state aid via stimulus was counted on.
 

Bank losses in the commercial real estate sector may weigh on and potentially generate “ issues” in Europe first .

Most see the economy growing nicely in second half of year but not recapturing pre pandemic levels for a while and the recovery to be sort of “K” shaped. Middle class potentially hollowed out a bit . We shall see, hopefully the virus abates faster.

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12 hours ago, dendrite said:

I have to protect them from the voles and chippies too. I found that out the hard way the first time I tried it. I may try some of those 4-5ft tree tubes to train them going upward because my other chestnut trees are growing as much outward as upward since they have a wide open field. I'm afraid to prune them and introduce wounds.

where can I buy some to plant?

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9 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

For anyone in medicine. I was talking to my brother in laws fiancé, who’s a nurse today. She said people definitely aren’t getting as sick this go around, at least from what she can see. She also said her friend, you is a doctor in NYC believes the virus may have mutated to a less potent strain?

Im not claiming any of this stuff as true or fact, but it’s interesting to here those takes from people in the medical field. I’d also leave open for the fact that treatment and handling of hospitalized cases is probably better now, which may be playing a role in that opinion.

Could be some selective pressure going on, hard to say without some extensive sequencing efforts. 
A lot of the decreased severity is likely due to the age groups being affected now. 

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26 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Third Consecutive Monday that positive vaccine news is announced around 7am.

This time it’s Oxford -AstraZeneca Vaccine initial  efficacy  And it has less obstacles bc it can be stored at non obscene temps

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55041371

It’s an oddball vaccine, but it looks like it might work. What they did is to take a chimp cold virus, inactivate it so it won’t infect humans, then they drop in the spike protein antigen from Covid. The immune system then makes antibody to the virus, spike protein and all. 
They already had the virus engineered before Covid was even heard of in 2019. They were using it to make vaccine for Ebola and Mers. When Covid came along, they just dropped in the spike protein and off they went. 

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12 hours ago, dendrite said:

I have to protect them from the voles and chippies too. I found that out the hard way the first time I tried it. I may try some of those 4-5ft tree tubes to train them going upward because my other chestnut trees are growing as much outward as upward since they have a wide open field. I'm afraid to prune them and introduce wounds.

Back in my brief and unlamented time as the state's urban forester, I went to the national convention in Minneapolis and on a field tour thru Hennepin County we saw an area planted to burr oak at which the trees had 4-ft tree tubes.  They found that when the little trees emerged rom the tubes the leaves were at the perfect height so deer could dine without having to lower their heads.  :o  (Of course, w/o the tubes those trees would never have reached even 2 feet tall.)

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17 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Yeah, this another promising vaccine.  Let's hope we can get these all approved and work on immunizing the globe to mitigate this mess.

Hopefully.

This one doesn’t require low temp storage. This one might be the ticket for 3rd world and remote distribution.  

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5 minutes ago, WhitinsvilleWX said:

Hopefully.

This one doesn’t require low temp storage. This one might be the ticket for 3rd world and remote distribution.  

Indeed.  I also saw that the efficacy of this one increased to over 90% when the initial dose was lower then the booster shot.  They don't know why that is but I'm sure they'll research it more and if drug is approved that may be the route they go.  Let's have 2021 obliterate this virus.

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4 hours ago, #NoPoles said:

Nashville Hickories?

Looking good. Chippies got some of them. Steve sent me some too. We’ll see if the SNE ones handle winter better than BNA.

1 hour ago, Whineminster said:

where can I buy some to plant?

I got these from Sheffield’s, but I had to wait a year for the notification they were in stock.

https://sheffields.com/seeds/Castanea/dentata

Go Native trees has started trees in stock and sometimes seeds. I got germinated ones from them in spring of 2019 and saplings in 2018. I prefer the direct from seed method with these since they have such a deep taproot. 

If the regulations are progressing for the resistant trees you could wait it out a few years for those as well. Generally they want you to grow a pure non-GMO tree along with one of the eventual resistant ones so that they can fertilize each other and increase genetic diversity. 

27 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Back in my brief and unlamented time as the state's urban forester, I went to the national convention in Minneapolis and on a field tour thru Hennepin County we saw an area planted to burr oak at which the trees had 4-ft tree tubes.  They found that when the little trees emerged rom the tubes the leaves were at the perfect height so deer could dine without having to lower their heads.  :o  (Of course, w/o the tubes those trees would never have reached even 2 feet tall.)

Guess I’ll be going for the 6ft ones then. lol

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3 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Third Consecutive Monday that positive vaccine news is announced around 7am.

This time it’s Oxford -AstraZeneca Vaccine initial  efficacy  And it has less obstacles bc it can be stored at non obscene temps

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55041371

Gotta pump that pre-market to suck in all the Robinhood fan boys.  Look at Pfizer and Moderna, any real profit taking was only realized over the course of a few hours unless you were an early long term hold.  

#casino

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Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Are you comparing to the spring or the Summer.  My guess was Taunton's peeps were speculating about the first wave peak. 

Either way ....the testing was only going on for the Worst condition folks back in April.  I mean ...that is why the overwhelming majority testing positive then were Elderly. (those who have the overwhelming majority of strong symptoms) ...they weren't testing 45 year olds with the sniffles for Covid in April...they told you to stay home and self quarantine.   It's just  very difficult to compare the waves and determine thru case number and breakdown within age what ages are sicker this time.  That data seems like it could be determined between the current spike and the summer Mini spike a bit better when testing numbers were more comparable among age groups/  and symptoms or lack there of.    

 You couldn't get tested in Spring if you were 30, 40,50 unless you were basically a very moderate to severe case of Covid or  part of tracing back to a bio-tech conference....Now anyone can get tested and you are catching the large amount of asymptomatic and mild cases that middle age and younger adults are likely to see that were not being tested for in Spring.   I guess my point is comparisons with the first spring wave are almost a mute point given the lack of testing that went on for mild and a symptomatic carriers. where as the summer spike comparisons have some more validity

"Moot"

Yeah... case numbers are not a great way to compare due to the huge increase in testing availability.  But the hospitalizations, ICUs, and deaths are up a bunch.  New "records" (I hate that term) for the first two, and high daily/weekly death #s             It is also working its way through the previously untouched rural areas... the Dakotaks/Wyoming, etc are pretty hot right now

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1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

"Moot"

Yeah... case numbers are not a great way to compare due to the huge increase in testing availability.  But the hospitalizations, ICUs, and deaths are up a bunch.  New "records" (I hate that term) for the first two, and high daily/weekly death #s             It is also working its way through the previously untouched rural areas... the Dakotaks/Wyoming, etc are pretty hot right now

The demographics for the deaths are about the same as before. 
As much as the hospitalizations are up,  from what I hear from some of my buddies at the Brigham they’re not as sick as they were in the spring. Some of it is because they are admitting cases that aren’t as bad off. In a lot of instances, it’s a couple a three days or so then release. Of course there are others that require a longer stay, but the whole nature of this wave is a little different. 3000 cases per day in Massachusetts aren’t the same as in April.

I really really wish they would publish the Ct numbers somehow. That would give us an idea of what the viral loads are. If half the daily cases are like 33-40, then those people aren’t really contagious and I’d say probably aren’t even having symptoms in some instances. The other thing that would be helpful is to know how many people test because they have symptoms, or is the test done because they traveled or want to travel. Next Sunday I know of 4 tests that will be done on asymptomatic people to get back in school and work.

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27 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Gotta pump that pre-market to suck in all the Robinhood fan boys.  Look at Pfizer and Moderna, any real profit taking was only realized over the course of a few hours unless you were an early long term hold.  

#casino

The market is a casino.  Most legendary traders ...Jeremy Grantham...Buffet are very clearly calling a bubble and they admit they are not going to be accurate at timing the bubble.....but that its current valuations are not sustainable with regard to Schiller PE or  Market cap/GDP just like in 1999 or 2008 when they made similar calls about a year early. 

I just wonder Hippy, if the global central banks are just even more in now. MMT was basically launched and followed since 2008/2009 crisis...rates have been pinned at 0% for nearly a decade minus the Fed experiment to raise them in 2018 when the market hemorrhaged or in 2019 when the economy was so "strong" that the Fed had to conduct big time repo operations  beginning last SEPT to keep financial market assets climbing  (bc in a bubble you either climb or implode) . Point being..the Fed isn't done trying and they will get more "radical" with their balance sheet expansion. Perhaps even telegraph direct equity purchases if need be.  ECB would probably lead this charge. People always are quick to say ....whoa whoa whoa this policy isn't working....look a the inequality blah blah blah.  So long as the top 1-2% can keep accruing wealth and see their paper assets grow...its working just the way as intended. 

 

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36 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

"Moot"

Yeah... case numbers are not a great way to compare due to the huge increase in testing availability.  But the hospitalizations, ICUs, and deaths are up a bunch.  New "records" (I hate that term) for the first two, and high daily/weekly death #s             It is also working its way through the previously untouched rural areas... the Dakotaks/Wyoming, etc are pretty hot right now

i deleted that post before your response because as i sorted thru it...your point above is correct and instead of edit my post and make it longer i just hit delete before you responded. Yes ICU ages and Deaths can always be compared thru the waves so yes they are definitely up from the summer. They aren't near the spring levels (ICU USE or deaths ) but obviously up and that's no shock because the testing methods over the summer can be related to current positives cases numbers (even if testing has still increased some) . If you track the current positive case numbers among 70-79 year old AND 80 plus that  unfortunately will give folks a great idea when deaths will or wont spike a couple weeks later much more so than general hospitalizations but i understand we can't over whelm the hospitals so that general hospital data is important for its own reasons. I don''t see a tremendous correlation with young people numbers rising first and passing it to older folks...i don't believe the spread takes that much time across age groups but maybe i'm missing something . 

 

Whitinsville WX basically articulated what i was trying to say but better. 

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7 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Third Consecutive Monday that positive vaccine news is announced around 7am.

This time it’s Oxford -AstraZeneca Vaccine initial  efficacy  And it has less obstacles bc it can be stored at non obscene temps

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55041371

Do it before the opening bell rings and have yourself a very profitable week. 

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9 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Increasing risk of a double dip recession Q1/Q2 2021.
 

Fiscal inaction from a deeply divided congress magnifies the economic consequences (slowdown)  from Covid scaling back economic activity , particularly in the industries currently in severe recession But also as revenue shortfalls begin to lead to their own dominos . 

The next few quarters , the economic pain has a couple paths to climb the socioeconomic ladder And gain market share In the middle class and upper middle class as job losses should regain steam this winter w Covid rises and provide cover for cost cutting measures in middle management and people furloughed as a less enticing view of the recovery comes into focus as well as dealing with revenue shortfalls ..especially in major cities where large local and state aid via stimulus was counted on.
 

Bank losses in the commercial real estate sector may weigh on and potentially generate “ issues” in Europe first .

Most see the economy growing nicely in second half of year but not recapturing pre pandemic levels for a while and the recovery to be sort of “K” shaped. Middle class potentially hollowed out a bit . We shall see, hopefully the virus abates faster.

Buy stocks. 

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On 11/22/2020 at 8:21 AM, tamarack said:

Curious about one of the sites in Maine that had 48-60 in Feb 1969- the point at the SW end of that color is Long Falls Dam (which sadly went off line in 2011 - at least I can no longer find its data.)  Is the one to the NE Harris Dam?   Farmington co-op's 43" is their biggest dump on record and their pack was 84" at the end - was Maine's deepest until Chimney Pond in Baxter Park reported 94" in 2017.
Some trivia - Gardiner, Maine co-op reported 12.0" but 3 miles south at our place we had 10.3" from 1.70" LE from often rimed flakes.

Good call (assuming it's a dam). I had to find the point manually, but it led me to the following metadata regarding that station:

GHCND_IDENTIFIER, LAT, LON, ELEVATION_m, STATE, STATION_NAME

USC00173588  45.4586  -69.8653  253.0 ME HARRIS STN   

If you're curious, that location observed 60 inches of snowfall for the denoted time range. The maximum for this event occurred at Pinkham Notch in New Hampshire. I might remove it from the map since it's pretty absurd or too wildly epic. The station observed 108 inches of snowfall :wacko: which is 38 more than any other station lol. It was an "outlier," but based on the location, I kept it.

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12 hours ago, MegaMike said:

Good call (assuming it's a dam). I had to find the point manually, but it led me to the following metadata regarding that station:

GHCND_IDENTIFIER, LAT, LON, ELEVATION_m, STATE, STATION_NAME

USC00173588  45.4586  -69.8653  253.0 ME HARRIS STN   

If you're curious, that location observed 60 inches of snowfall for the denoted time range. The maximum for this event occurred at Pinkham Notch in New Hampshire. I might remove it from the map since it's pretty absurd or too wildly epic. The station observed 108 inches of snowfall :wacko: which is 38 more than any other station lol. It was an "outlier," but based on the location, I kept it.

Harris Station is indeed at the dam on the Kennebec.  That's where the rafters put in to float down to The Forks.  Long Falls Dam measured 56" from that storm, and I've seen that reported as Maine's biggest single snowstorm.

Here is the data I have for Pinkham:

2/25/1969 27 18 2.11 21 113
2/26/1969 22 18 2.5 24.5 137
2/27/1969 26 15 1.61 27 164
2/28/1969 22 9 0.25 4.5 158

They had 130" for the month, with a 16" event during the 1st week and 30" from the "Mayor Lindsey" storm, reported on the 10th.  MWN reported 97.8" from almost 15" LE.   All that snow raised the pack on the summit from 22" to 26" - probably added 8-10 feet to Tucks.

And I forgot to note with my "trivia" that it was for March 1993.

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13 hours ago, MegaMike said:

Good call (assuming it's a dam). I had to find the point manually, but it led me to the following metadata regarding that station:

GHCND_IDENTIFIER, LAT, LON, ELEVATION_m, STATE, STATION_NAME

USC00173588  45.4586  -69.8653  253.0 ME HARRIS STN   

If you're curious, that location observed 60 inches of snowfall for the denoted time range. The maximum for this event occurred at Pinkham Notch in New Hampshire. I might remove it from the map since it's pretty absurd or too wildly epic. The station observed 108 inches of snowfall :wacko: which is 38 more than any other station lol. It was an "outlier," but based on the location, I kept it.

Remove Pinkham? It’s legit and representative of the high terrain in the area. 

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