September 2020 wx discussion

[LibertyBell]

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

JFK: 46

LGA: 52

Thanks, Don!  I guess LGA will be awhile yet.  Did either FOK or MJX get to freezing or below as far as you know?  Those are the two noted radiational cooling champions in our area.

 

[uofmiami]

1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

I thought this return to full power happened some time ago.    I have had a good locked signal for months in CI.     There was a period where my own position/antenna made a difference.

Concerning the range, the antenna height and its gain is what counts.   Nearby structures and those along signal path play a role too---thus all the testing.   Theoretically, power must increase by 4X to make a significant difference---to 4,000 watts here.

It has been at 1000w for months, but it’s not at its old transmission power before this whole debacle happened years ago.

 

edit: according to NWS normal power is 1000w. Not sure if that’s always been the case or more recently. Could have sworn KWO35 transmitted at 1250 or so, but perhaps I’m wrong.

[donsutherland1]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks, Don!  I guess LGA will be awhile yet.  Did either FOK or MJX get to freezing or below as far as you know?  Those are the two noted radiational cooling champions in our area.

 

No. Neither site reached freezing.

[doncat]

Kept some wind up all night so managed a 45° low, not bad for the date.

[uncle W]

my lows were 49 on Sat...48 Sun...47 today...

[qg_omega]

No doubt we are wasting a great pattern in the winter

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

No doubt we are wasting a great pattern in the winter

 

[Brian5671]

10 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

No doubt we are wasting a great pattern in the winter

yeah cold and dry is so much fun....LOL

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks Don, do you have the lows for JFK and LGA too?

 

This was the 6th earliest 46° on record at JFK. We haven’t seen a 46° this early since the 1970s.

 

First/Last Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Difference
1965	05-08 (1965)	45	08-31 (1965)	46	114
1967	06-01 (1967)	45	09-12 (1967)	46	102
1975	05-03 (1975)	46	09-15 (1975)	45	134
1961	05-28 (1961)	44	09-18 (1961)	46	112
1979	04-22 (1979)	45	09-20 (1979)	41	150
1962	05-13 (1962)	42	09-21 (1962)	42	130
1973	05-19 (1973)	44	09-21 (1973)	46	124

 

[forkyfork]

good sunset potential today with clear air to the west and smoke to the east

[lee59]

Was at Jones Beach at high tide this morning, a lot of over wash. In spots it was going under the boardwalk and inundating the tennis court area  and also where they have the bands play.

[MJO812]

Tis  the season of troughs 

[donsutherland1]

New York City's Central Park saw the temperature dip below 50° for the first time in September since September 24, 2013. At Saranac Lake, NY, the thermometer fell to 21°. That broke the previous daily record low temperature of 25°, which was set in 1962 and tied in 1993.

Warmer readings will arrive starting tomorrow afternoon. Afterward, temperatures will likely remain at above normal levels for much of the remainder of September.

Phoenix has an implied 74% probability of recording just its 13th September on record with a mean temperature of 90° or above. The most recent such occurrence was 2018 with a mean temperature of 91.8°. Phoenix will very likely record its hottest June-September period on record with a four-month mean temperature of 95.1°-95.3°. The existing record is 93.9°, which was set in 2011.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around September 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C. La Niña conditions have developed and will likely prevail through the remainder of autumn.

The SOI was +14.32.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.225. That is the highest AO figure since March 25, 2020 when the AO was +3.174.

On September 20, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.879 (RMM). The September 19-adjusted amplitude was 0.912.

Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°.

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO.   

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 64% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September. September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.4°.

 

[uncle W]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

This was the 6th earliest 46° on record at JFK. We haven’t seen a 46° this early since the 1970s.

 

First/Last Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Difference
1965	05-08 (1965)	45	08-31 (1965)	46	114
1967	06-01 (1967)	45	09-12 (1967)	46	102
1975	05-03 (1975)	46	09-15 (1975)	45	134
1961	05-28 (1961)	44	09-18 (1961)	46	112
1979	04-22 (1979)	45	09-20 (1979)	41	150
1962	05-13 (1962)	42	09-21 (1962)	42	130
1973	05-19 (1973)	44	09-21 (1973)	46	124

 

NYC has three days in a row with a morning low temp of 50 or lower...the last time that happened was 2000?

[SACRUS]

9/21

EWR: 67
JFK: 67
New Brnswck: 67
PHL: 67
LGA: 66
TEB: 66
ACY: 65
TTN: 65
NYC: 65
ISP: 64
BLM: 63

[Cfa]

65/45 split here.

[SACRUS]

down to 46/42 here .

[SnoSki14]

Another night in the 40s. September actually feels like September for once. 

[Rtd208]

Current temp is down to 47 here.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 72degs.      Make it 67degs., or +1.5.

All Ensembles have no 80's, the GFS OP has 7 incoming!  lol.

53*(55%RH) here at 6am, m. clear.     52* at 6:30am.     51* at 7am.      55* by 9am.   56* at 9:15am.    57* at 9:30am.     58* at 9:45am.     59* at 10am.

The Tropics:   28.7N 96.7W-inland, no huff or puff-just rain,  38.5N 63.2W-no Teddy Bear is he-but no one to bother.     

[Rtd208]

Current temp is 46 here which is the overnight low.

[BxEngine]

No 30s like yesterday, stopped falling at 40. We’ll still finish September above normal (as usual), but a “hot” september this wasnt. 

[wdrag]

Wantage NJ Tue am: second consecutive frosty morning..this one more extensive than yesterday. Smoke aloft-albeit thin, is visible and will thicken from west to east late today before passing south of the NYC forum Wednesday...though it looks like a bit more to come toward the end of the workweek. Added one graphic for 2P this afternoon to show the approaching band. 

Ran some trajectories and not too excited about BETA contribution here, but added the forward trajectory from 500meters vicinity HOU beginning 00z/22 using the 00Z GFS ensemble. NAEFS has very low prob of >2" here by Oct 1, so it will rain and am hoping the WPC D7 totals are close... most or all of it between Sunday-Tuesday in possibly three primary bands (27-29).  

Will monitor NAEFS cold signal for the first week of October. This 00z/22 cycle has a high probability for colder than normal the first week of October. 

Hopefully many here noticed the smoke aloft yesterday, especially NYC longitude eastward. Was quite noticeable to my east forenoon Monday. 651A/22

[bluewave]

11 hours ago, uncle W said:

NYC has three days in a row with a morning low temp of 50 or lower...the last time that happened was 2000?

NYC just extended it to 4 days with the low of 49° so far today. The streak came several days earlier than 2000. 

9-19....50°

9-20....50°

9-21....49°

9-22....49°

2000-09-26	54	50	52.0	-12.1	13	0	0.33	0.0	0
2000-09-27	68	47	57.5	-6.2	7	0	0.00	0.0	0
2000-09-28	67	49	58.0	-5.3	7	0	0.00	0.0	0
2000-09-29	59	43	51.0	-11.9	14	0	0.00	0.0	0
2000-09-30	65	48	56.5	-6.0	8	0	0.00	0.0	0

 

[uofmiami]

36.9 in Muttontown & 41.7 in Syosset for the low this morning. 

[Cfa]

Low of 44 here. Sick of this crap.

[wdrag]

Did add to the 651A post (trajectory path from 00z/22 GFS ensemble).  Not impossible for 2+ amount... but I don't see necessary long duration concentration, at least not yet. 803A/22

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Today started off with very chilly and, in some cases, near record low temperatures. Minimum temperatures included: Albany: 32°; Allentown: 36°; Bridgeport: 43°; Boston: 45°; Islip: 43°; New York City: 48°; Newark: 46°; Philadelphia: 47°; Poughkeepsie: 33°; Providence: 45°; Westhampton: 32°; and, White Plains: 42°. Under bright sunshine, a noticeable warmup should commence today. The temperature will likely top out mainly in the lower 70s across the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 72°
Newark: 74°
Philadelphia: 73°

Above normal temperatures will likely continue through the remainder of this week.

 

[dmillz25]

32 minutes ago, Cfa said:

Low of 44 here. Sick of this crap.

How can you be sick of this when it’s just getting started. Low of 47 here

[jm1220]

Awesome satellite image of Teddy out there heading for Nova Scotia. Definitely expanding big time and becoming extra tropical but still 100mph storm. Cool to look at but glad it’s not headed this way.