donsutherland1 Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 40 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 88-89 I believe was brutally cold but most of the storms hit the mid Atlantic. @uncle W @donsutherland1? Winter 1988-89 was somewhat warmer than normal across the Northeast and warmer than normal across the Southeast. With the exception of southern New Jersey and parts of the Delmarva, snowfall was below to much below normal. Seasonal snowfall amounts included: Atlantic City: 17.5" Boston: 15.5" New York City: 8.1" Newark: 7.5" Philadelphia: 11.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 80° here today after the multiple mornings in the 40's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 81 here, low was 49. Edit: High of 82. Much more appropriate for Sept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 79 for a high here, felt good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 7 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Late Feb 89 dumped 2 feet over south Jersey and the delmarva and missed us completely. Forecast was 6 to 10" and not a flake fell it was like a mini March 2001...lots of hype but in the end a dry day for most with sun filtering through the overcast...just awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 With abundant sunshine, temperatures surged into the upper 70s and lower 80s across the region today. High temperatures included: Allentown: 81° Baltimore: 81° Boston: 80° Harrisburg: 84° Hartford: 79° Islip: 79° New York City: 79° Newark: 83° Philadelphia: 81° Washington, DC: 81° Tomorrow will see similar warmth. Temperatures will likely remain at generally above normal levels for the remainder of September. A cool shot is possible to open October. Phoenix has an implied 89% probability of recording just its 13th September on record with a mean temperature of 90° or above. The most recent such occurrence was 2018 with a mean temperature of 91.8°. Phoenix will very likely record its hottest June-September period on record with a four-month mean temperature of 95.3°-95.5°. That would exceed the previous June-August record of 95.1°, which was set in 2013 and tied in 2015. The existing record is 93.9°, which was set in 2011. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around September 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C. La Niña conditions have developed and will likely prevail through the remainder of autumn. The SOI was +7.43. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.089. On September 22, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.168 (RMM). The September 21-adjusted amplitude was 0.998. Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 63% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September. September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.4°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 24, 2020 Share Posted September 24, 2020 9/23 EWR: 83 JFK: 82 LGA: 81 BLM: 81 New Brnswck: 81 PHL: 81 TEB: 81 TTN: 81 ISP: 80 ACY: 80 NYC: 79 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted September 24, 2020 Share Posted September 24, 2020 Good Thursday morning all, Smoke coming back again here tomorrow.... not real thick but noticeable, differing from the cirrus today. 8AM Friday model guidance added. Note the sourcing of the plumes in CA. Also, WY is highlighted critical fire danger this week. Won't belabor the issue... but next weeks fire danger will be largely dependent on mountain related wind speeds. NWS in CA sees the potential for next week as a very strong anchored ridge develops along the west coast. I think it's week long, maybe longer and so we'll see if the strong offshore wind materializes. From NWS Oxnard early this morning below. .HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (SAT-WED). Dangerously hot weather and near critical fire weather conditions are possible early next week across the region as strong high pressure builds across the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 24, 2020 Share Posted September 24, 2020 The last 7 days of September are averaging 72degs. Making it 68degs., or +2.5. Month to date is -0.8[68.4]. September should end at 68.3, near Normal. I noticed my 1968 Almanac has the Normal for September at 68.5!---but now its 68.0?-with global warming?? 66*(60%RH) here at 6am, some overcast. 71* by 10am. Playing with 73*/74* for last hour (1pm-2pm), and cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 24, 2020 Share Posted September 24, 2020 The 1981-2010 September mean in NYC is 68.0. But we have been averaging closer to 70 since 2010. So close to average feels cool. Sep 81-10 NCDC official 75.2 60.8 68.0 Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Sep Season Mean 70.5 70.5 2019 70.4 70.4 2018 70.7 70.7 2017 70.5 70.5 2016 71.8 71.8 2015 74.5 74.5 2014 69.7 69.7 2013 67.9 67.9 2012 68.8 68.8 2011 70.0 70.0 2010 71.1 71.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted September 24, 2020 Share Posted September 24, 2020 55F Noticeable color on the trees in Southern Westchester now. Early this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 24, 2020 Share Posted September 24, 2020 Morning thoughts... Today will be variably cloudy and warm. The temperature will likely top out mainly in the upper 70s and lower 80s across the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 78° Newark: 80° Philadelphia: 79° The temperature will likely remain above normal through the remainder of this week. Denver could make a run at 90° today. 2020 has already seen a record 74 such days there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 24, 2020 Share Posted September 24, 2020 63/55 and mostly cloudy. Cloudy today should keep temps below or near 80 but still dry. Warmer than normal continues through Mon (9/27) with Sun 9/27 being potential warmest day of past 3 weeks. The next front and deep trough into the GL and then east coast 9/30 - 10/6. Front swings though Tue 9/29/ Wed (9/30) some heavy rain possible especially northern areas as it looks now. Coldest looks to stay mainly west of the area with the brunt of the chilliest readings probably coming through the area 10/3 - 10/5 before moderation. 9/24 - 9/28 : warmer / drier than normal. Warmest days 9/25, 9/27 9.29 - 9/30: front (rain) potential heavy rain ,, first in 3 weeks or since 9/10-11. 10/1 - 10/6 : cooler than normal, coldest readings likely west with 1-2 days 10/3-10/4 before moderation. 10/7 : warmer times ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 24, 2020 Share Posted September 24, 2020 Expansion of the extreme drought conditions in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 24, 2020 Author Share Posted September 24, 2020 don't trust any model solution past day 5 with with this pac jet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 24, 2020 Share Posted September 24, 2020 2 hours ago, forkyfork said: don't trust any model solution past day 5 with with this pac jet Looks to max out from 4 to 5 sd around Alaska and also Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 24, 2020 Author Share Posted September 24, 2020 33 minutes ago, bluewave said: Looks to max out from 4 to 5 sd around Alaska and also Greenland. it's gotten so amplified the cold has trouble coming east of the apps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 24, 2020 Share Posted September 24, 2020 90s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 24, 2020 Share Posted September 24, 2020 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: 90s? lol i will believe it if it actually happens... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 24, 2020 Author Share Posted September 24, 2020 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: 90s? i think high mins are going to drive the departures again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted September 24, 2020 Share Posted September 24, 2020 Models really treat Long Island like the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 24, 2020 Share Posted September 24, 2020 47 minutes ago, forkyfork said: i think high mins are going to drive the departures again Yes as cloud debris will get in the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 24, 2020 Share Posted September 24, 2020 Station temp departure thru today of -1.3° for month....todays split of 76/55. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 24, 2020 Share Posted September 24, 2020 2 hours ago, forkyfork said: i think high mins are going to drive the departures again Maybe another 70° minimum if the front slows down enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 Temperatures rose in the 70s across the region today. Tomorrow will likely be somewhat warmer with more sunshine than today. In the Rockies, Denver reached 91° today. That surpassed the previous daily record of 89°, which was set in 1992. It was also Denver's 75th 90° or warmer day. The previous annual record was 73 days in 2012. Temperatures will likely remain at generally above normal levels for the remainder of September. A cool shot is possible to open October. Phoenix has an implied 91% probability of recording just its 13th September on record with a mean temperature of 90° or above. The most recent such occurrence was 2018 with a mean temperature of 91.8°. Phoenix will very likely record its hottest June-September period on record with a four-month mean temperature of 95.3°-95.5°. That would exceed the previous June-August record of 95.1°, which was set in 2013 and tied in 2015. The existing record is 93.9°, which was set in 2011. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around September 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C. La Niña conditions have developed and will likely prevail through the remainder of autumn. The SOI was +14.26. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.211. On September 23, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.368 (RMM). The September 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.168. Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September. September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.4°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 A -4sd ao in December during a la nina or near la nina year usually means heavy snowstorm sooner or later...there are exceptions but very few... 12/13/1966 the ao goes below a -4sd...the same time NYC is getting snow and rain but NYC got 7" of snow on 12/24... 12/19/1995 the ao goes below a -4sd...the same time the city is getting an 8" snowstorm... 12/29/2000 the ao goes below a -4sd...NYC got a foot of snow the next day... 12/18/2010 the ao goes below a -5sd...NYC got 20" of snow on 12/26-27... 1950 which is another la nina year had a -4sd ao on the 27th...at the same time NYC was getting 3" of snow and the coldest temp of the winter...9 degrees...not great but it was the best part of that winter... the two el nino Decembers I found with a -4sd are... 12/20/1963...ao was below -4sd on the 20th...NYC got 7" of snow on the 23rd... 12/21/2009...ao was almost -6sd...NYC got 11" of snow on the 19th-20th.. four more years I found with an ao -4sd in December...1961 was almost a -4sd... 12/26/1961...almost -4sd...6" of snow on 12/23-24... 12/31/1962...below -4sd...no heavy snow that winter...Just record cold...13 degree max in NYC 12/31/62... 12/27/1968...below -4sd...light snow soon followed...it took till Feb to get a heavy snowstorm... 12/29/1976...below -5sd...light snow that day but the winter had record cold... 12/27/1978...below -4sd...it took till Febfuary to get heavy snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 57 minutes ago, uncle W said: A -4sd ao in December during a la nina or near la nina year usually means heavy snowstorm sooner or later...there are exceptions but very few... 12/13/1966 the ao goes below a -4sd...the same time NYC is getting snow and rain but NYC got 7" of snow on 12/24... 12/19/1995 the ao goes below a -4sd...the same time the city is getting an 8" snowstorm... 12/29/2000 the ao goes below a -4sd...NYC got a foot of snow the next day... 12/18/2010 the ao goes below a -5sd...NYC got 20" of snow on 12/26-27... 1950 which is another la nina year had a -4sd ao on the 27th...at the same time NYC was getting 3" of snow and the coldest temp of the winter...9 degrees...not great but it was the best part of that winter... the two el nino Decembers I found with a -4sd are... 12/20/1963...ao was below -4sd on the 20th...NYC got 7" of snow on the 23rd... 12/21/2009...ao was almost -6sd...NYC got 11" of snow on the 19th-20th.. The AO is going lower but our temps are going higher. This is confusing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 Just now, TriPol said: The AO is going lower but our temps are going higher. This is confusing. it's September not January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 9/24 EWR: 79 LGA: 78 ISP: 76 JFK: 76 New Brnswck: 76 TEB: 76 NYC: 75 BLM: 75 PHL: 75 TTN: 74 ACY: 73 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 18 minutes ago, TriPol said: The AO is going lower but our temps are going higher. This is confusing. the ao has more weight in December and the winter than in September...some years had a -4sd ao in January like 1998 but it had little or no effect on our temperatures... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.