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George BM

August Discobs 2020

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4 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Is this residual tropical that just hasn’t been pushed out yet?

Looks like yes and the baroclinic zone that Isaias rode up was left behind #1 and #2 trough cold air aloft just to our west and #3 mesoscale lows running by. 

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18 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

Nothing at all after two days of flood watches.  Good thing I got 1.85" from Isaias because I think yesterday was the last chance for rain for a long time.

The flood watch was put in effect because of the already saturated ground in many places. There was never going to be a widespread event over the last 2 days, and some areas did indeed receive excessive rain in a very short period.

It does look mostly dry for the next few days at least. Mid to late next week could feature some storm chances.

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16 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

Nothing at all after two days of flood watches.  Good thing I got 1.85" from Isaias because I think yesterday was the last chance for rain for a long time.

My point and click has rain chances most of next week. I haven't been out to check how much fell last evening but I'd estimate 3". Close to 10" in 4 days.

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9 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’ve never seen anything “useful” about a three week forecast. A pattern recognition argument can be made for a forecast beyond ten days but even that is sketchy. I just can’t wrap my head around who the weather forecast a month in advance benefits. Christopher Newport on the Susan Constant?

Spend the money and come up with a model that is superb at 7 days. Now that would be useful.

 

It was tongue in cheek, thus the use of quotations. Generally not worth much, other than maybe providing an idea of the 'big picture' pattern going forward.

That said, extending the range of the ensemble system, and making changes(spending money) to improve performance inside of 10 days are not mutually exclusive. This GEFS (v12) upgrade provides higher resolution, and increases the number of ensemble members to 31. There are other technical changes in the model physics.

 

eta- the rationale for extending the forecast range and some of the 'in the weeds' changes to the model.

Quote

Recently, there has been a large demand for subseasonal prediction, and GEFS v12 forecasts will be extended to 35 days to cover this time range. To better represent large uncertainties associated with this time scale, SPPT (stochastic physics perturbed tendency) and SKEB (stochastic kinetic energy backscatter) stochastic schemes are taking the place of the original STTP (stochastic total tendency perturbation), and a prescribed SST generated from combination of NSST and bias corrected CFS forecasts is also applied to simulate the sub-seasonal variation of SST forcing.

https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2020EGUGA..22.6379F/abstract

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1 hour ago, dailylurker said:

My point and click has rain chances most of next week. I haven't been out to check how much fell last evening but I'd estimate 3". Close to 10" in 4 days.

You inspired me to dump the gauge. 2.90" for last night. I wouldn't be surprised if you have a bit more. My electric gauge had 3.76, but in summer there's lots of tree interference on that Davis, and it can't be trusted.

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40 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

The weenies want more forecast hours to drool over...

I am sure there will be plenty of west based -NAO at day 27.

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Another day another record , another 1,000 year event. 

https://www.delawareonline.com/story/news/2020/08/07/friday-storm-delaware-isaias-delmarva-power-flooding-rain/3324504001/

The Delaware Environmental Observing System measured 1.03 inches of rain in just five minutes at its Greenville station near Winterthur, state climatologist Dan Leathers said. 

According to the NOAA Atlas-14, the document that the National Weather Service uses to examine these types of events, that amount of rain in five minutes would be expected less than once every 1,000 years, Leathers said.

Leathers said he and his team were still looking at the storm in more detail Friday night.

Motorists run afoul of the weather in Greenville on Friday.
 

The storm dumped more than four inches of rain at that Greenville station in around 30 minutes, Leathers said, and the area near Hockessin Fire Co. saw more than three inches of rain. So, too, did the Claymont area.

As of 1130 p.m., more than 11,000 Delmarva Power customers were without power.

It all happened quickly. 

The National Weather Service issued a severe thunderstorm warning at 5:38 p.m., when a storm with wind gusts of 60 mph and the potential for hail was over Kennett Square, Pa., just over the Pennsylvania state line. 

 

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Last night’s flood event in Wilmington was statistically a once-every-1000-year flooding event. Insane. Scroll up in the thread for full video of the flooding. 

Can anyone recall what the stats were for rainfall intensity during the Elliott City floods?

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One time of year some extra clouds and a little east wind isn't the worst. Altho the forecast isn't looking too great. 

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Just now, CAPE said:

80/71 here

Not bad out as long as you aren't moving too much. 

Unfortunately I’m moving too much lol. Lacrosse tournament at the park I work at today, unfortunately field conditions were muddy so had to do some rakin’. It definitely is muggy out. Good thing it isn’t 95 too though. 

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5 hours ago, GramaxRefugee said:

You inspired me to dump the gauge. 2.90" for last night. I wouldn't be surprised if you have a bit more. My electric gauge had 3.76, but in summer there's lots of tree interference on that Davis, and it can't be trusted.

Yeah. I got 7.20" from the tropical storm and 2.85" last night. I said near 10" because I figured the trees might of interfered a little. 

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2 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Unfortunately I’m moving too much lol. Lacrosse tournament at the park I work at today, unfortunately field conditions were muddy so had to do some rakin’. It definitely is muggy out. Good thing it isn’t 95 too though. 

Yeah I have been outside working too. Lost most of the clouds and the sun is beating down now. Time for a break. (maybe a beer)

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The lowering sun angle is becoming more noticeable now. The mid day full sun area is shrinking, and more of the yard is shaded/filtered by trees longer.

 

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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Euro looks fairly active starting Wednesday through end of run . 

GFS looked pretty wet late week into next weekend.

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From Mount Holly AFD-

Cold front slowly approaches during the week and will move into the region by Thursday. Models seem to indicate that the front will become nearly stationary over the area at the end of the week. If that happens, there could be a prolonged period of wet weather to close out the week as multiple rounds of convection would develop as a series of weak low pressure systems develop and ride along the front. With high dew points into the end of the week (generally low 70s), heavy rain should be a threat.

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

The lowering sun angle is becoming more noticeable now. The mid day full sun area is shrinking, and more of the yard is shaded/filtered by trees longer.

 

This is always a cool time IMO. Right around Aug 5 the sun starts racing down. Once you get 45 days past solstice this happens, reverse in winter of course. There’s math involved in the explanation but to shorten it, the sun will now go down about a degree every three days where it was taking about 10. Does this until early November.

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

This is always a cool time IMO. Right around Aug 5 the sun starts racing down. Once you get 45 days past solstice this happens, reverse in winter of course. There’s math involved in the explanation but to shorten it, the sun will now go down about a degree every three days where it was taking about 10. Does this until early November.

Yes. This makes me happy.

And today I have begun to prep for reseeding my burnt lawn. First batch of seed should go down tomorrow morning.

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Just now, CAPE said:

Yes. This makes me happy.

And today I have begun to prep for reseeding my burnt lawn. First batch of seed should go down tomorrow morning.

Don’t forget to fertilize it. New seed needs it.

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