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wdrag

Tropical connection NYC forum area Sun-Wed, 8/2-5/20- Tropical Storm Isaias

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14 minutes ago, David-LI said:

What time does the Ukie run? Any updates? Sorry for asking I know it's on the website somewhere

115 it comes out

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The northern edge of the steady rain is into Baltimore and the center is just making landfall. The trough is ventilating the storm and surging the moisture northward.

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0z 3km NAM looks a little stronger with the winds tomorrow afternoon/evening. Worst of it for the Jersey Shore starts around noon, and then for NYC/LI the worst is from 3-7pm. There's an area of what looks to be 50+kt sustained wind at 10m right along the Jersey Shore and then into the south shore of LI. Gusts in that would likely be near hurricane force. Thankfully the strong winds would only really go on for less than 6 hours and the storm's trucking north. Appears that a feeder band pivots through as the strong winds really get going. Narrow area of 3"+ rain mostly in E PA and W NJ, then into the Catskills. 

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Sorry guys but I have family down in the Pinetops/rocky mount NC area, does anyone know what the wind forecast is there? Thanks 

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I’m on vacation at my mother in laws place in cape May. 1 block from the bay. What should we expect to see here? Thanks for any info. Really appreciate your guys posting on this storm.

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3 minutes ago, jhotdog said:

I’m on vacation at my mother in laws place in cape May. 1 block from the bay. What should we expect to see here? Thanks for any info. Really appreciate your guys posting on this storm.

I was just there on Friday 

Dangerous  winds and flooding most likely

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26 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said:

Sorry guys but I have family down in the Pinetops/rocky mount NC area, does anyone know what the wind forecast is there? Thanks 

Sustained winds as high as 55 mph with gusts to 70 mph.

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000
WTNT64 KNHC 040316
TCUAT4

Hurricane Isaias Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092020
1115 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

Doppler radar imagery and surface observations indicate that eye of 
Hurricane Isaias made landfall in southern North Carolina 
around 1110 PM EDT (0310 UTC) near Ocean Isle Beach, with maximum 
sustained winds of 85 mph (140 km/h).

A weather station at Oak Island, North Carolina, recently reported 
sustained winds of 76 mph (122 km/h) and a gust to 87 mph (140 
km/h). 

A data buoy near the coast of North Carolina has recently reported 
a minimum pressure of 988 MB (29.18 inches).

SUMMARY OF 1115 PM EDT...0315 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 78.4W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown/Zelinsky/Beven

 

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1 hour ago, uncle W said:

I'm hoping this storm does not track west of the city...if it does we could see some strong winds from the south south east and less rainfall...I'd rather see more rain and less wind...not looking forward to power outages from this...Hazel in 1954 was a much bigger hurricane but tracked well west of the city...winds were clocked at 113mph on the roof of 17 Battery place in lower Manhattan...

I was in Hudson County during Hazel.  Great winds, but very little rain.  You pointed out elsewhere: it was the third storm to hit the area in 1954.

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I think it's looking pretty likely that storm will pass west of NYC. Nam/GFS has it in western NJ. 

This will put eastern NJ, NYC, LI in the middle of the strongest gusts with a high likelihood of a few spinups. 

Storm will be moving through at nearly 30mph which will only increase the wind force on the eastern side. I think some 80mph gusts seem probable.

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19 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

Cantore getting raked right now.

Dude should at least wear a helmet. Any debris at that speed will probably cause some serious damage.

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8 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

well as of now the heaviest rains most likely will stay west of us, based off radar 

The rain has an Easterly component North of DC.

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image.thumb.png.a345275e5bf547899e9ffdd520a33ba0.png

Nearly all of the MESO models show an intense band of roughly 60 MPH sustained winds making its way up the barrier islands of NJ. It's hard to believe but almost every model has it. Gusts would be even higher. I know it's crazy but these winds would probably warrant a hurricane warning for these areas; I doubt the warnings will be hoisted but it will be interesting to see how bad it gets. 

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2 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

Nearly all of the MESO models show an intense band of roughly 60 MPH sustained winds making its way up the barrier islands of NJ. It's hard to believe but almost every model has it. Gusts would be even higher. I know it's crazy but these winds would probably warrant a hurricane warning for these areas; I doubt the warnings will be hoisted but it will be interesting to see how bad it gets. 

Probably not a great day for friends, family, and neighbors around here tomorrow.  Bad trends.

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5 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

image.thumb.png.a345275e5bf547899e9ffdd520a33ba0.png

Nearly all of the MESO models show an intense band of roughly 60 MPH sustained winds making its way up the barrier islands of NJ. It's hard to believe but almost every model has it. Gusts would be even higher. I know it's crazy but these winds would probably warrant a hurricane warning for these areas; I doubt the warnings will be hoisted but it will be interesting to see how bad it gets. 

I can’t see anyone seeing sustained 60. I’ll believe it when I see it. I think you’ll see 50 sustained. I personally think the wind is overhyped. High winds will be very very isolated 

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5 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

image.thumb.png.a345275e5bf547899e9ffdd520a33ba0.png

Nearly all of the MESO models show an intense band of roughly 60 MPH sustained winds making its way up the barrier islands of NJ. It's hard to believe but almost every model has it. Gusts would be even higher. I know it's crazy but these winds would probably warrant a hurricane warning for these areas; I doubt the warnings will be hoisted but it will be interesting to see how bad it gets. 

Thats 35 feet up. 

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1 minute ago, purduewx80 said:

agreed. not even seeing that in NC obs now.

Yeah  agree, I'm expecting a brief period of 50 mph. Some of the models have shown higher but they are most likely over done. 

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