Tropical connection NYC forum area Sun-Wed, 8/2-5/20- Tropical Storm Isaias

[purduewx80]

Just now, justinj said:

I can’t see anyone seeing sustained 60 

agreed. not even seeing that in NC obs now.

[TheManWithNoFace]

5 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

Nearly all of the MESO models show an intense band of roughly 60 MPH sustained winds making its way up the barrier islands of NJ. It's hard to believe but almost every model has it. Gusts would be even higher. I know it's crazy but these winds would probably warrant a hurricane warning for these areas; I doubt the warnings will be hoisted but it will be interesting to see how bad it gets. 

Thats 35 feet up. 

[Prue11]

2 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

agreed. not even seeing that in NC obs now.

It’s overdone 

[Blizzard-on-GFS]

1 minute ago, purduewx80 said:

agreed. not even seeing that in NC obs now.

Yeah  agree, I'm expecting a brief period of 50 mph. Some of the models have shown higher but they are most likely over done. 

[SRRTA22]

13 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

agreed. not even seeing that in NC obs now.

I see a report of sustained 66 near Wilmington, not that i necessarily agree that we'll see sustained 60 up here, lol

[psv88]

Nobody is calling for 60 sustained here. 

[Rtd208]

SPC Day 1

...Delmarva/Chesapeake Bay region to New England...
   As Isaias shifts northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic Region into
   New England, an accompanying/very moist low-level environment will
   permit maintenance of modest CAPE along and east of the track of the
   storm.  With a very strong wind field -- veering strongly with
   height -- also spreading northward in tandem with Isaias, a
   favorable environment for rotating cells -- and a few tornadoes --
   is apparent.  Overnight, as the storm eventually approaches the St.
   Lawrence Valley, limited tornado risk may spread as far north as
   Maine.

[Animal]

Mt Holly nws 230 am afd update is very ominous 

[Animal]

Most recent hrrr run has most of heaviest rain falling in Pennsylvania 

[Tatamy]

Night time tornado watches issued for Delaware and southern NJ through 12 PM. It is my expectation that many parts of the area will be placed under a Tornado watch as the day progresses as noted above.

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 415
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
225 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2020

TORNADO WATCH 415 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

DEC001-003-005-041600-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0415.200804T0625Z-200804T1600Z/

DE
. DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 415
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
225 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2020

TORNADO WATCH 415 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NJC009-011-033-041600-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0415.200804T0625Z-200804T1600Z/

NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CAPE MAY CUMBERLAND SALEM

Bethlehem, PA is 80 miles west of NYC
Skywarn Spotter - Mt. Holly

[Tatamy]

06z 3K NAM

[Cerinthe Major]

We just lost power (NW Nassau). Already?! PSEG says estimated restoration is 8 PM tonight. Don’t exactly see crews out at that moment! Hope they use this respite to get it together so I don’t lose all the food in the fridge.

[Cerinthe Major]

Lol already back on. Nearly gave me a heart attack there, PSEG. A good reminder to get my cooler ready early, though.

[David-LI]

HRRR and 6z NAM trended very dry east of the city. Based on these runs LI does not go over half an inch of rain. Still rather windy.

[Snowlover11]

5 minutes ago, David-LI said:

HRRR and 6z NAM trended very dry east of the city. Based on these runs LI does not go over half an inch of rain. Still rather windy.

basically a wind storm with embedded storms.

[Snowlover11]

upton really backing down on the rain.

[Neblizzard]

8 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

upton really backing down on the rain.

That’s been the trend for the last day 

[purduewx80]

13 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

upton really backing down on the rain.

because the NHC track shifted west. the heavy rain threat was always going to be west of the low's track. 

[SRRTA22]

Yup and puts us in good position for some good winds and a tor threat. I for one, prefer being on the eastern side of the track. 

Going to be a wild day.

This is probably the craziest hodo ive seen for our area

[purduewx80]

09Z surface analysis has a coastal front draped from the city down to those cells in the Delmarva. The LLJ will probably shove it back NW-W later this morning but it will likely act as a focus for any spinups. 

[wdrag]

NYC Forum: Have nothing to add forecast wise... prep for power outages and what you will do without power for 24 hours, especially rural areas. I expect to lose internet sometime between 2-5P this afternoon here in nw NJ, after which I'll be out of contact til internet returns. 

IF impact ends up less, then good; but if not prepared and it goes as the overnight modeling anticipates, you may wish you had planned. Those mitigation strategies need to be completed by Noon at the latest. 

My only regret for this thread was not adding SVR risk last evening for the forum...just was too tired thinking about the overall wind/rain impact.  

TOR threat today as per other posters... coastal NJ northeastward. Follow SPC/local NWS issuances. 

My preparation suggestion is everyone in our NYC forum have enough cash on hand to weather no power for a while, a full gas tank, and be aware you may not be able to move around in some areas where gusts tear down trees/wires. I could see power out for a week in hard to reach rural areas of CT, if 70 knot gusts materialize for coastal NJ/LI/western New England while lesser 55kt anticipated high terrain eastern NYS/nw NJ.  

Flood threat in our forum area is mainly northern NJ/se NYS, and it may not be too bad in our area. 

530A/4

 

[Rtd208]

 

[Rtd208]

I have picked up 0.36" of rain so far today.

[MJO812]

Latest Tropical  winds map

[Rtd208]

I think a tornado watch will be issued for the NYC metro in the next few hours or so. 

[TheManWithNoFace]

5 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

Plenty of trees at 35 feet.

not too many anenometers though. 

[SnoSki14]

Nam/GFS are gung-ho with a period of very strong winds in a few hours. Also sting jet after center passes starting to look likely.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Snowlover11 said:

upton really backing down on the rain.

This was expected 

[MJO812]

[purduewx80]

15 minutes ago, TheManWithNoFace said:

not too many anenometers though. 

Model wind products are at 10m because anemometers are at 10m. This is entirely due to aviation.