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Tropical connection NYC forum area Sun-Wed, 8/2-5/20- Tropical Storm Isaias

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted

Interesting track...... guys, look up Bertha 1996.  This one might have a track similar to that one.....65 mph TS when it made landfall near JFK.  The track is close enough to the ocean for it not to weaken rapidly, plus its speed up the coast will help it maintain its structure up here.

 

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
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2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Satellite imagery shows the center is on eastern edge of the cone. Correct me if I'm wrong. 

Yep, especially the European has been too far west with this consistently ever since it said it was going to make LF in South Florida.  This will probably make landfall near Cape Fear like Bertha 1996 did and track up to western LI at a similar intensity.

 

 

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nycsnow

nycsnow

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3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yep, especially the European has been too far west with this consistently ever since it said it was going to make LF in South Florida.  This will probably make landfall near Cape Fear like Bertha 1996 did and track up to western LI at a similar intensity.

 

 

Western LI isn’t a little East that’s Way East then any model I think maybe nyc or just west 

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Brian5671

Brian5671

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2 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

watching local tv weather future cast the city gets one good band mid day and that is it the storm is over by 6-700 pm .. lucky to get a inch for the city.. if that future cast is accurate..

Fay was like that east of the city-one firehose band and that was it....

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NJwx85

NJwx85

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You guys put way, way too much weight towards the NAM. It's a short term model designed for forecasting convection, not a complex tropical system that's transitioning and interacting with a trough. The rain isn't going to be confined to that one consolidated area. You're going to see multiple bands on the Eastern side. Just look at the current radar situation over the Mid-Atlantic. That MCS pushing into DC is non-existent on the NAM.

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Brian5671

Brian5671

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

You guys put way, way too much weight towards the NAM. It's a short term model designed for forecasting convection, not a complex tropical system that's transitioning and interacting with a trough. The rain isn't going to be confined to that one consolidated area. You're going to see multiple bands on the Eastern side. Just look at the current radar situation over the Mid-Atlantic. That MCS pushing into DC is non-existent on the NAM.

I see your point but every model has that same narrow band of heavy rain....

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NJwx85

NJwx85

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Just now, Brian5671 said:

I see your point but every model has that same narrow band of heavy rain....

You cannot expect models to pick up on the nuances of what's going to happen. Either way, with the center passing overhead or just West, we've known for awhile the biggest threat was the wind, not the rain.

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