June 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[donsutherland1]

Temperatures again rose into the middle and upper 80s today. Northern New England, Quebec, and New Brunswick again saw some record heat. High temperatures included:

Burlington: 96° (old record: 93°, 1888 and 1975)
Caribou: 91° (tied record set in 1975 and tied in 1983)
Edmundston, New Brunswick: 90° (old record: 81°, 2014)
Miramichi, New Brunswick: 93° (old record: 85°, 2013)
Quebec City: 91° (old record: 85°, 2003)
Rivière-du-Loup, Quebec: 88° (old record: 81°, 1999)
Sherbrooke, Quebec: 91° (old record: 78°, 2009)

Tomorrow will be another very warm day with high temperatures well into the 80s. A few locations could experience a thunderstorm during the afternoon or evening hours.

A sustained generally warmer than normal pattern is now in place. That pattern will likely persist through at least July and August, paving the way for a warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Initially, extreme heat is unlikely, but that could change in July, especially if the emerging drought continues to deepen. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region.

Overnight and today, the ECMWF backed off on the extreme heat to start July and the GFS backed off on its idea of an unprecedented cool spell with three consecutive high temperatures in the 60s in New York City during the June 30-July 2 period. Based on the EPS and GEFS and overall pattern evolution, temperatures will likely be above normal as July commences (probably with high tempertures in the middle or perhaps upper 80s in New York City).

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around June 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks.

The SOI was +8.93 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.044.

On June 22, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.825 (RMM). The June 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.845.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn.

This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Further, the cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City.

Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East. July-August 2019 saw 13 days on which the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 91% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June. June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.8°.

 

[qg_omega]

Persistent onshore flow is warming ocean temps pretty well lately

[HailMan06]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

Persistent onshore flow is warming ocean temps pretty well lately

Good for any potential tropical threats down the road.

[Rtd208]

High for the day was 89 here.

Current temp 77

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Temperatures again rose into the middle and upper 80s today. Northern New England, Quebec, and New Brunswick again saw some record heat. High temperatures included:

Burlington: 96° (old record: 93°, 1888 and 1975)
Caribou: 91° (tied record set in 1975 and tied in 1983)
Edmundston, New Brunswick: 90° (old record: 81°, 2014)
Miramichi, New Brunswick: 93° (old record: 85°, 2013)
Quebec City: 91° (old record: 85°, 2003)
Rivière-du-Loup, Quebec: 88° (old record: 81°, 1999)
Sherbrooke, Quebec: 91° (old record: 78°, 2009)

Tomorrow will be another very warm day with high temperatures well into the 80s. A few locations could experience a thunderstorm during the afternoon or evening hours.

A sustained generally warmer than normal pattern is now in place. That pattern will likely persist through at least July and August, paving the way for a warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Initially, extreme heat is unlikely, but that could change in July, especially if the emerging drought continues to deepen. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region.

Overnight and today, the ECMWF backed off on the extreme heat to start July and the GFS backed off on its idea of an unprecedented cool spell with three consecutive high temperatures in the 60s in New York City during the June 30-July 2 period. Based on the EPS and GEFS and overall pattern evolution, temperatures will likely be above normal as July commences (probably with high tempertures in the middle or perhaps upper 80s in New York City).

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around June 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks.

The SOI was +8.93 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.044.

On June 22, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.825 (RMM). The June 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.845.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn.

This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Further, the cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City.

Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East. July-August 2019 saw 13 days on which the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 91% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June. June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.8°.

 

Don what has been the hottest temp in the northeast so far this year?  US or Canada?  Thanks!

 

[doncat]

Another euro run with basically no significant rain thru it's run to the coast. It's been pretty consistent with that idea for a few days now, while the gfs and cmc at times have looked quite wet out ten days. 

[CIK62]

The last 7 days of June are averaging 77degs. , or 2.5degs. AN.

Month to date is  +2.0[72.5].           June should end at  +2.2[73.6].

75* here at 6am., moderate overcast-kept the heat in.     78* by 10am, less cloud cover.       79* by Noon, %RH way down in the last 6hrs. to 55%.         85* by 4pm, 42%RH---west wind kept my T in the running after lagging so all the other recent days.         Remembering last Oct. 02 on the beach with 93* locally too and  those westward moving dust devils that forced me from the beach a little earlier than I wanted.

[gravitylover]

13 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Did you read about this incredible heat and forest fires in Siberia?  They've been +20 F in heat for like six months now and just hit 100 F- first time ever north of the arctic circle!

Unprecedented heat in Siberia which the media isn't really talking about.

I've noticed hotter temps occurring farther north this year, seems like the attic fire that started in the high Arctic has spread farther south and has now reached northern VT and Maine with temps approaching 100 there, all time records.

https://twitter.com/weatherdak/status/1274880733052469249

https://twitter.com/capitalweather/status/1274757559216476160

https://twitter.com/weatherdak/status/1 ... 3052469249

that has videos of the fires in northern Siberia

here is the official record of the 100.4 temp at Verhoyansk

https://twitter.com/capitalweather/stat ... 9216476160

 

We've already seen the negative effects of a snowless winter here......nasty explosion of bugs this year, with a horde of gnats near my Poconos home that makes working in my garden impossible.  I thought it was just this community but when I went down the mountain to a nearby town, they were mobbing people there too!  I've also had to spray bug barrier throughout my other home on Long Island, where I now have wolf spiders along with their eggs (eek), I saw one in my bedroom and could not sleep there for a week!  They are hairy, with warning stripes on their legs, black and grey (to warn others of being poisonous) and I haven't had these in a decade or so.  I sprayed so much bug barrier to get rid of them that my throat and nose were burning!  I just hope I dont get any centipedes later on, because I haven't had them in a long time either.....it's the combo of a warm wet winter followed by a warm wet spring and now this hot humid weather that has caused this population explosion of bugs.  I wish all the birds I get in both gardens would eat them all up, but they seem to be content singing and taking baths in my pond!  We also have a 50% reduction in monarch butterflies (an important pollinator) because of pesticides killing their favorite food, milkweed, as well as the changing climate.  But now everyone is planting milkweed along the roads and highways, so maybe they will have a comeback?

I've seen 1 Monarch and it flew past without stopping in my garden Bees are a rarity too. I've been hand pollinating many things this year, so far so good but that's not sustainable. I'm not sure if I was successful with the melons but I sure hope so because I have a dozen growing and I've been looking forward to them for weeks. Early on while it was still wet I had all sorts of bugs, now it's down to grubs and these things that look like centipedes but with fewer legs. The gnats and skeeters are pretty much gone since it dried out.

[donsutherland1]

6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Don what has been the hottest temp in the northeast so far this year?  US or Canada?  Thanks!

 

Some locations in Maine and New Brunswick have each reached 99 degrees. Additional data may have come out since then, but I have not yet seen any higher readings having been noted.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Another day without rain? Not a good way to start the summer. As we have seen in the past drought often leads to more drought. 

[bluewave]

Top 2 driest pattern for several stations since the pattern change back in mid-May. Not much rain in the forecast.

Time Series Summary for Bridgeport Area, CT (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Precipitation May 17 to Jun 23	Missing Count
1	1957-06-23	0.63	0
2	2020-06-23	0.75	0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Precipitation May 17 to Jun 23	Missing Count
1	2020-06-23	1.12	0

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Precipitation May 17 to Jun 23	Missing Count
1	1964-06-23	1.17	0
2	2020-06-23	1.21	0

[SACRUS]

Clouds hauling through with a more westerly wind now and p to 78. Where as yesterday was below forecast today with a more westerly flow may out do guidance similar to monday.  So ares will approach or reach 90, enhanced by the recent dryness. Sat and Sunday should see temps again exceed 90 in a more widespread fashion ahead of the next trough and subsequent ULL.

Overnight runs with the return of the onshore flow that went let go until Independence day weekend.  This time the ULL cut off may be closer by and muddy up 6/30 - 7/3 with more with clouds and rain  then sunny cool and dry weather we had the past two where the ULL was much further south.  I do think we warm things up by Sat/Sun (7.4 -7/5) and the week beyond the 4th holiday..  Get the flow N / NW and 850 temps are an ocean of >18C.  These tendencies of ULL that linger 4 - 6 days may finally see that progression north and east of the area beyond the first week of July.  Overall 

 

[SACRUS]

June departures through 6/24 (7 days to go).  I remeber last year with the searing heat in the Southeast and now into the northeast. Sandwiched so far.

EWR: +1.6
NYC: +2.0
LGA:   +3.2
JFK: +0.5
TTN: +1.1

 

CAR: +5.7
ALB: +4.1
BTV: +3.0
 

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Another day without rain? Not a good way to start the summer. As we have seen in the past drought often leads to more drought. 

positive feedback cycle beginning.  We've had close to nothing here this month-lawns looks august brown and it's only June 24th

[SACRUS]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

positive feedback cycle beginning.  We've had close to nothing here this month-lawns looks august brown and it's only June 24th

Missed all but a sun shower since Friday where i was lucky to get 0.10.  Perhaps with the ULL now forecast to be close by and essentially over the region bewteen 6/30 and 7/3 maybe we can see some widespread rains.  We shall see if models start showing anything more widespread.  Past ULL in May and last week had some decent rains where the ULL st for a few days.

[doncat]

Highest min temp here of season so far of 73°.

[SACRUS]

Past June departures, at least the warmest since 2011 likely. 

EWR:
2019:  +.3
2018: -0.3
2017:  +0.5
2016:  +0.3
2015: -0.4
2014:  +0.4
2013:  +0.8
2012:  0
2011: +2.0
2010:  +3.8

LGA:
2019: +0.6
2018: +1.4
2017: +1.5
2016:  +1.2
2015:  -0.9
2014:  +0.3
2013:  +1.8
2012:  +0.7
2011: +0.4
2010:  +3.8

NYC:

2019: +0.2
2018: +0.2
2017:  +0.6
2016: +0.8
2015:  -0.2
2014:  +1.0
2013:  +1.2
2012:  -0.4
2011:  +0.9
2010:  +3.2

 

 

[weathermedic]

A bit less humid today with the WNW flow 82/65 at my station. DP has been hovering around 70 or above all week.

[SACRUS]

Noon roundup, very nice less humid warm summer day

JFK: 85 / 64
EWR: 84 / 56
ACY: 84 / 59
LGA: 84/ 55
ISP: 84/ 68
NYC: 82 / 54
TEB: 82 / 56
BLM: 81 / 58
New Brnswck: 80 / 56
PHL: 79 / 52
TTN: 78 / 55

[Allsnow]

4th of July weekend now looking like a repeat of the pass few cutoffs. The cutoff will sit south of us while the big heat goes into NNE 

[Cfa]

Still humid in Long Island, currently 88/73 and alternating between sun and clouds.

[uncle W]

86 imby...

[dmillz25]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

4th of July weekend now looking like a repeat of the pass few cutoffs. The cutoff will sit south of us while the big heat goes into NNE 

Good, good. Although I’m hearing rumblings on Twitter if this pattern stays like this through August there could be some tropical mischief 

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

4th of July weekend now looking like a repeat of the pass few cutoffs. The cutoff will sit south of us while the big heat goes into NNE 

it's like a record on skip....same ol same ol

[weathermedic]

25 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Good, good. Although I’m hearing rumblings on Twitter if this pattern stays like this through August there could be some tropical mischief 

If so, that will put a huge dent in the drought conditions if they persist. I think the pattern is headed that way. Drought conditions, then tropical weather system(s) or at least remnants of, affecting us as the season progresses.

[forkyfork]

44 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Good, good. Although I’m hearing rumblings on Twitter if this pattern stays like this through August there could be some tropical mischief 

as soon as the deep tropics heat up we'll lose the good landfall pattern. we're not allowed to have interesting wx

[Rtd208]

Just now, forkyfork said:

as soon as the deep tropics heat up we'll lose the good landfall pattern. we're not allowed to have interesting wx

I also expect it to be sunny and 65 degrees on Christmas Day.

[Rtd208]

Current temp is 85 here. A less humid and sticky day then the past several.

[uofmiami]

 

 

[nycwinter]

3 hours ago, Allsnow said:

4th of July weekend now looking like a repeat of the pass few cutoffs. The cutoff will sit south of us while the big heat goes into NNE 

once we hit the 4th of july their is  7-8 weeks of real summer heat left until next summer.. i am counting down the days until fall begins...