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June 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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At first glance there'll be tendency for ridging to focus north & west of us with lower heights around our region. 

The GFS is trying to form a broad ridge over the US but it's likely overdoing it.

Thinking June ends up a tad BN due to more onshore flow days helped by very cool SSTs offshore & the early June cool airmass. 

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Heights look to come up 6/3 - 6/6 before the next cold front then ridging looks to expand out of the Plains/ Great Lakes towards 6/10.  Need to watch if  more troughing over Canadian Maritimes blunts the ridge.  Still think first 90s 6/7 - 6/11 period even in the park.

 

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MAY ended at  -2.1[60.3].

The first 8 days of June are averaging 73degs., or 4degs. AN.

TS troubles somewhere between Houston-Tampa near June 08?       Our precipitation totals move up too, due to this, maybe.

53* here at 6am.         57* by 9am.       60* by 11am.        63* at Noon.     66* by 2am.     71* by 4pm.

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Impressive radiational cooling for June 1st. Islip just missed the record low of 42 by 2 degrees. 

01 Jun 7:56 am 56 38 51 N 13    10.00   FEW250 30.12 1023.8 30.23           44  

 

Almanac for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
June 1, 2020
Daily Data Observed Normal Record Highest Record Lowest
Max Temperature M 72 90 in 1988 57 in 2015
Min Temperature M 55 69 in 1987 42 in 2009
Avg Temperature M 63.8 78.0 in 1987 52.5 in 2009

 

 

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4 hours ago, doncat said:

48° here...Welcome June.

House got down to 67° which means the heat was close to kicking on lol.

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Models hinting at our first MCS of the season on Wednesday. Decent looking EML as the midlevel lapse rates continue to overperform this year. 
 

60FA7E38-6C49-495E-99CA-071E8143B020.png.54b18a4b02204a6fe676ee1702f65ec5.png

02C3FE31-B59A-4C2F-90D9-B5013F83B646.png.b20fc5a888015496aad50beb981dfa1f.png

 

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15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Models hinting at our first MCS of the season on Wednesday. Decent looking EML as the midlevel lapse rates continue to overperform this year. 

 

I thought MCS were generally difficult to forecast and a modelling challenge.  Would be great if we could get one, they're always fun.

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56 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

I thought MCS were generally difficult to forecast and a modelling challenge.  Would be great if we could get one, they're always fun.

The general signal of convection firing over the Great Lakes and racing ESE is pretty easy for the models to spot. But the timing and intensity usually have to wait until the short term. How much do we destabilize before the storms arrive and will any debris clouds be a factor? 

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Hot and humid is coming can’t wait for this weather to be summer time just in time when I take my vacation in two weeks.

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Some parts of the region could see their first 90 on Wednesday if the convection waits until the afternoon like the Euro. But a faster arrival with more morning clouds would mean slightly cooler maxes than the Euro. The amount of daytime heating will also determine the severity of the storms.

 

BBC9A092-BB9B-4BFD-939B-5C7C53FCB22D.thumb.png.beb6e82887215f1bca043e814c6329b5.png

ACD9CA02-87EA-4EA1-9CA8-A78AFB28D0AE.thumb.png.8abb1265ac2a8c615b3c81952b88c03f.png

 

 

 

 

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June began on an unseasonably cool note. Low temperatures included:

Allentown: 44°
Bridgeport: 46°
Islip: 44°
New York City: 51°
Newark: 51°
Philadelphia: 51°
Poughkeepsie: 39°
White Plains: 42°

Warmer weather will likely return by the middle of this week. At least several days with widespread high temperatures in the 80s will be likely. Nevertheless, no excessive heat is likely through at least the first ten days of June in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around May 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. ENSO Region anomalies have continued to cool into the end of May. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has continued to increase.

The SOI was +9.63 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.010.

On May 31, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.849 (RMM). The May 30-adjusted amplitude was 1.784.

June will likely have a temperature anomaly within 1° of normal (some areas on the cool side, others on the warm side) within the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

 

 

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10 hours ago, bluewave said:

The general signal of convection firing over the Great Lakes and racing ESE is pretty easy for the models to spot. But the timing and intensity usually have to wait until the short term. How much do we destabilize before the storms arrive and will any debris clouds be a factor? 

Thanks bluewave.  I always learn a lot from your posts.

Here's hoping for some big thunderstorms boys.

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The next 8 days are averaging 72degs., or 3degs. AN.

59* here at 6am.       64* by 9am.       66* by Noon.         71* by 3pm.

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Cloudy and cool morning off a low of 47 Mon night,   did drop to 40 Sunday night.

We'll see if clouds cap first shot at 90s Wed / Fri for the warmer spots.   Believe we are transitioning to an overall warmer and wetter phase which should be the summer theme.

Should we miss 90s this week  -  the period 6/9 - 6/11 should yield more widespread heat ahead of the remnants of the Gulf storm followed by trough 6/11  - 6/13 with the ridge looking to be building back behind it.  Doubt any prolonged heat or cool as plenty of troughs moving along between rising heights.  Active June may be en route. 

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If all the clouds and convection prevent a first 90 for the warm spots this week, then it may be a while longer. EPS indicating a potential blocking pattern emerging in about  8-10 days. So places like Newark could see a very late first 90 this year if clouds and convection win out this week.

BFF8E66A-B38E-4ED2-91A7-19E4160A5B83.thumb.png.fa037721da5e2a5ffe8e45b1c5c204de.png

 

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44 minutes ago, bluewave said:

If all the clouds and convection prevent a first 90 for the warm spots this week, then it may be a while longer. EPS indicating a potential blocking pattern emerging in about  8-10 days. So places like Newark could see a very late first 90 this year if clouds and convection win out this week.

BFF8E66A-B38E-4ED2-91A7-19E4160A5B83.thumb.png.fa037721da5e2a5ffe8e45b1c5c204de.png

 

 

Any relationship to the cold pool? 

I know HM commented on wave breaking ongoing as well. 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Any relationship to the cold pool? 

I know HM commented on wave breaking ongoing as well. 

 

 

Maybe the North Atlantic SST and 500mb patterns are reinforcing each other. 

C4291FCF-A63C-47F2-87DA-256978A2D62F.thumb.png.445e134ce6ba8b08f1238632e7690c88.png

5DCB7AAC-DE0F-493E-A640-A18CFD16A486.thumb.png.54a46b1b41c86b253760c96e2795d0e5.png

 

 

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11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Maybe the North Atlantic SST and 500mb patterns are reinforcing each other. 

Will be interesting to see what happens as the cold pool warms and dissipates.

The upcoming hurricane season looks to be active as the Atlantic warms and the the hang over effects of the Nino fad,  and as Don mentioned even a Nina look possible later in the summer.  

Also, I read the IOD is setting records for positive values. Is that true? 

Have not researched that aspect lately. 

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39 minutes ago, frd said:

Will be interesting to see what happens as the cold pool warms and dissipates.

The upcoming hurricane season looks to be active as the Atlantic warms and the the hang over effects of the Nino fad,  and as Don mentioned even a Nina look possible later in the summer.  

Also, I read the IOD is setting records for positive values. Is that true? 

Have not researched that aspect lately. 

Yeah, there is record SST warmth across the entire IO. This correlates to the strongest ridging and warmth staying to our west during the summer. 
 

38EBBC75-D7A4-4302-A5C2-39C2760CD205.png.df2127ab82125462c68107e7685cbbe0.png

 

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The SPC's forecast last night has the main threat for tomorrow to our Southeast (SE PA, S NJ). However, the NAM over the last 2 runs has trended further north with its instability values coinciding with the passing vort being further north. I would sell these high instability numbers that its showing for the 12z run, but could be an active day in the area.

 

image.png.8f7e5b186ddf0cc5d8edc2bfb88a9d6c.png

 

trend-nam-2020060212-f030.sbcape.us_ne.gif.1b26581f14ebb7d3632bbd8bb09f3a6c.gif

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42 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The pollen is bad today 

Been a rough few days, heres hoping for some rains tomorrow for allergies and plants/veggies sake.

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

If all the clouds and convection prevent a first 90 for the warm spots this week, then it may be a while longer. EPS indicating a potential blocking pattern emerging in about  8-10 days. So places like Newark could see a very late first 90 this year if clouds and convection win out this week.

BFF8E66A-B38E-4ED2-91A7-19E4160A5B83.thumb.png.fa037721da5e2a5ffe8e45b1c5c204de.png

 

Pending on what your timing of this week but there is a possible window 6/9 - 6/11 ahead of the remnant tropical low/subsequent cold front.  We'll see if EWR can get enough sun and heating Fri.

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