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June 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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2 minutes ago, Cfa said:

C12D0E6E-3D23-4C55-856E-C03BC60C57D8.thumb.jpeg.1429dc66b50619251f00aa6401b600d4.jpeg

Never seen this before.

Currently 86/71 (HI 91).

Iridescence tends to form high up in the sky near clouds, like cirrus or lenticular, that are made up of especially tiny ice crystals or water droplets. The tiny ice and water droplet sizes cause sunlight to be diffracted—it is obstructed by the droplets, is bent, and spreads out into its spectral colors.....from Google

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This afternoon, the temperature rose to 88° at Central Park. That was New York City's highest temperature since October 2, 2019 when the mercury topped out at 93°.

Tomorrow will be another very warm and generally dry day. Precipitation will likely remain below to much below normal in the region through the remainder of June.

A major pattern change is continuing to evolve in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Afterward, the warm pattern could then lock in for July and August, paving the way for a warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Initially, extreme heat is unlikely, but that could change in July, especially if the emerging drought continues to deepen. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks.

The SOI was -14.62 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.235.

On June 20, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.731 (RMM). The June 19-adjusted amplitude was 1.513.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn.

This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Further, the cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City.

Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East. July-August 2019 saw 13 days on which the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 90% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June. June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.7°.

 

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10 hours ago, uofmiami said:

I’ll take the under, as has been the case to date on 90 degree heat around NYC.

Today could be the day for the Park. Its 79 now, while that's still running a little cooler than surrounding urban area readings already in the low 80s, it still a good enough start to reach 90 in a dry Central Park. Just watch out for a renegade t storm.

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36 minutes ago, dWave said:

Today could be the day for the Park. Its 79 now, while that's still running a little cooler than surrounding urban area readings already in the low 80s, it still a good enough start to reach 90 in a dry Central Park. Just watch out for a renegade t storm.

Going to be close.  I'm 3 degree ahead of yesterday out here in Syosset & I got to 85.6 yesterday for the high.

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Already 84 degrees here on what should be so far the hottest day of the season .

Overnight guidance continues with a warm outlook, forecasting above normal temps overall and sveral bouts of heat.  Next few days upper 80s low 90s (exceeding when mostly sunny and enhanced by recent dryness) before front pushes through with trough Wed PM - Fri.  Warm back up Sat (6/27) to Mon (6/29).  Ridge builds north again and we likely see some onshore component 6/30 - 7/2 but still looks warm.  Once the flow goes more NW/W by thr 3rd it should be off to the races for the 4th of July weekend.

 

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