winterwx21 Posted June 20, 2020 Share Posted June 20, 2020 3 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said: Thundering in Piscataway. As this really isn't a frontal passage I imagine we could be looking for storms to pop up all day. It's really getting annoying how the storms keep just barely missing us in Piscataway. Lots of thunder very close by today, but nothing more than sprinkles. The heavy rain keeps missing us by just a few miles. Places just to the south and east like Edison and just to the north like Plainfield keep getting the downpours while we get nothing. It's bone dry here and I just had to go out to water the vegetable garden again. I hope one of these storms hits us in the next few days. Really getting irritated with the bad luck. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 21, 2020 Share Posted June 21, 2020 Across the region, temperatures rose into the middle 80s. Meanwhile, Caribou hit 93°, which surpassed the previous daily record of 91°, which was set in 1988. In the Arctic, sea ice extent was 9.804 million square kilometers on June 19. That was the second lowest figure on record for that date. A major pattern change is continuing to evolve in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Once it develops, the warm pattern could then lock in for July and August, paving the way for a warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Initially, extreme heat is unlikely, but that could change in July, especially if the emerging drought continues to deepen. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks. The SOI was -33.95 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.152. On June 19, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.508 (RMM). The June 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.384. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Further, the cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East. July-August 2019 saw 13 days on which the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 83% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June. June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.5°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted June 21, 2020 Share Posted June 21, 2020 1 hour ago, winterwx21 said: It's really getting annoying how the storms keep just barely missing us in Piscataway. Lots of thunder very close by today, but nothing more than sprinkles. The heavy rain keeps missing us by just a few miles. Places just to the south and east like Edison and just to the north like Plainfield keep getting the downpours while we get nothing. It's bone dry here and I just had to go out to water the vegetable garden again. I hope one of these storms hits us in the next few days. Really getting irritated with the bad luck. These have been very, very small cells. I got about 10 minutes of a light, showery rain. Really small drops, it sort of looked like it was raining hard but it was basically an angry spritzing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 21, 2020 Share Posted June 21, 2020 83/65 split today...couple of storms to my sw earlier but nada here... 0.17" past 15 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 21, 2020 Share Posted June 21, 2020 just missed the rain today with a cell just to my west...at least the dry weather is killing the nutsedge on my lawn... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 21, 2020 Share Posted June 21, 2020 8 hours ago, bluewave said: Rainfall pattern looks familiar. Yup. Nothing will be happening east of the city as long as this southerly flow pattern continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted June 21, 2020 Share Posted June 21, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 79degs., or 5degs. AN. Month to date is +1.3[71.4]. Should be +2.3[73.6] by the 29th. 70* here at 6am, haze. 72* by 10am, innocent cumulus. 76* by 3pm. 78* by 5pm. GFS OP has 14 straight 90's starting Tues., but just one '100' this run, July 4th. itself. Finally the ENS shows a 90 (on the 29th.). My prediction is that at least 5 90-Days will have occurred by July 05th. Impossible to say when clouds or rain will interfere with the T on any given day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 21, 2020 Share Posted June 21, 2020 4 hours ago, jm1220 said: Yup. Nothing will be happening east of the city as long as this southerly flow pattern continues. With another dry week coming up, this will be the driest mid-April to late June from LGA to ISP. Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation May 16 to Jun 26 Missing Count 1 2020-06-26 1.12 6 2 1965-06-26 1.51 0 3 1949-06-26 1.81 0 4 2005-06-26 1.95 0 5 1963-06-26 2.45 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation May 16 to Jun 26 Missing Count 1 2020-06-26 1.22 6 2 2005-06-26 1.34 0 3 1964-06-26 1.37 0 4 1986-06-26 1.91 0 5 1965-06-26 2.06 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 21, 2020 Share Posted June 21, 2020 6/20 Highs LGA: 88 TEB: 87 EWR: 87 NYC: 86 New Brnswck: 86 ACY: 85 TTN: 85 PHL: 84 BLM: 83 JFK: 82 ISP: 82 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 21, 2020 Share Posted June 21, 2020 Up to 77, evaded the rain but was mostly cloudy from about 3:00 on after a high of 87 on Saturday. Flow is still southerly today more Florida type weather and with more sun temps will again mid- upper 80s possible closing in on 90 in the wrmer spots. Warm patter 6/22 - 6/25 ech day possible reaching 90 and the seasons first heatwave for some is likely. Storms possible with front wed pm/ thu then warmer air returns as ridging pushes east towards next Saturday. We'll see how and where the ridge centers with the tendency to go north and create more onshore flow. This time it could get more North / NW component to open July hotter and sustained for a period... Happy Fathers Day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted June 21, 2020 Share Posted June 21, 2020 82/70 (HI 86) here, my favorite type of weather. 85/65 yesterday, no rain in the last 9-10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 21, 2020 Share Posted June 21, 2020 4 hours ago, CIK62 said: The next 8 days are averaging 79degs., or 5degs. AN. Month to date is +1.3[71.4]. Should be +2.3[73.6] by the 29th. 70* here at 6am, haze. GFS OP has 14 straight 90's starting Tues., but just one '100' this run, July 4th. itself. Finally the ENS shows a 90 (on the 29th.). ENS showing more NE (onshore-ish) Jul 2-4 as ridge centers north again. But it is turning more N/NW as it progresses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 21, 2020 Author Share Posted June 21, 2020 High for the day yesterday was 87 here. Current temp 83/DP 68/RH 62% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted June 21, 2020 Share Posted June 21, 2020 Looking due west from Manhattan Beach Brooklyn. The cumulus clouds are building over NJ 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 21, 2020 Author Share Posted June 21, 2020 Current temp 86/DP 70/RH 59% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted June 21, 2020 Share Posted June 21, 2020 Never seen this before. Currently 86/71 (HI 91). 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted June 21, 2020 Share Posted June 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, Cfa said: Never seen this before. Currently 86/71 (HI 91). Iridescence tends to form high up in the sky near clouds, like cirrus or lenticular, that are made up of especially tiny ice crystals or water droplets. The tiny ice and water droplet sizes cause sunlight to be diffracted—it is obstructed by the droplets, is bent, and spreads out into its spectral colors.....from Google 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted June 21, 2020 Share Posted June 21, 2020 Hot one..89 dew 69 under searing June sun. Steady summer weather is here..forecast of steady highs 87 - 90 for the foreseeable future. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 21, 2020 Share Posted June 21, 2020 Same as last few days with wind shifting onshore after noon, so temps level off after that in low to mid 80's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 21, 2020 Share Posted June 21, 2020 I was 85 earlier but down to 82 now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 21, 2020 Share Posted June 21, 2020 2 hours ago, uncle W said: I was 85 earlier but down to 82 now... Our own version of the trade winds. Imagine if our SSTs approached the warmth around Florida. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 21, 2020 Share Posted June 21, 2020 Another day another dollar, 85/65 split today...Happy father's day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 21, 2020 Share Posted June 21, 2020 This afternoon, the temperature rose to 88° at Central Park. That was New York City's highest temperature since October 2, 2019 when the mercury topped out at 93°. Tomorrow will be another very warm and generally dry day. Precipitation will likely remain below to much below normal in the region through the remainder of June. A major pattern change is continuing to evolve in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Afterward, the warm pattern could then lock in for July and August, paving the way for a warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Initially, extreme heat is unlikely, but that could change in July, especially if the emerging drought continues to deepen. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks. The SOI was -14.62 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.235. On June 20, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.731 (RMM). The June 19-adjusted amplitude was 1.513. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Further, the cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East. July-August 2019 saw 13 days on which the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 90% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June. June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.7°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 22, 2020 Share Posted June 22, 2020 Today's Highs (6/21) TEB: 88 NYC: 88 New Brnswck: 88 LGA: 88 EWR: 86 TTN: 86 PHL: 86 ACY: 85 ISP: 84 JFK: 82 BLM: 82 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 22, 2020 Share Posted June 22, 2020 A dry park could rack up a few 90s this week and next weeked. Ill go 2-3 between 6/22 - 6/30 in the park and 4 or 5 in LGA/EWR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted June 22, 2020 Share Posted June 22, 2020 1 hour ago, SACRUS said: A dry park could rack up a few 90s this week and next weeked. Ill go 2-3 between 6/22 - 6/30 in the park and 4 or 5 in LGA/EWR. I’ll take the under, as has been the case to date on 90 degree heat around NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted June 22, 2020 Share Posted June 22, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 77.5degs., or 3.5degs. AN. Month to data is +1.5[71.7]. Should be +2.1[73.3] by the 30th. 71* here at 6am, clear. 79* at Noon, cumulus west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 22, 2020 Share Posted June 22, 2020 Need rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 22, 2020 Share Posted June 22, 2020 Going to be hot the next 7 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 22, 2020 Share Posted June 22, 2020 Already up to 77 here. 90 will definitely be in reach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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