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George BM

May Discobs 2020

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1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:


As much of a weenie as I am and love to reference those, they’ve been horrible the last couple threats. They are always the last to show snow.

I don’t expect anything. Just throwing out something to talk about. 

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don’t expect anything. Just throwing out something to talk about. 

I think that describes this past winter in a nutshell.  Still shaping up to be one of the top 5 events of the year even if it’s just cold rain lol

  • Haha 1

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We need to squeeze 2 more inches out to get to triple digits for the season.  Haven't had one below 100" since 01-02.  

Snowed for hours yesterday, but didn't accumulate here.   Looks like we have one more shot at snow on Monday.

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Today is perfection for this time of year imo.

64, full sun, and a nice breeze.

Hell its perfection any time of the year.

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13 minutes ago, jonjon said:

We need to squeeze 2 more inches out to get to triple digits for the season.  Haven't had one below 100" since 01-02.  

Snowed for hours yesterday, but didn't accumulate here.   Looks like we have one more shot at snow on Monday.

If I could squeeze out 2 more tenths, I would be at an inch here for the season. That would move the futility ranking from first, to first.

  • Haha 4

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LWX posted freeze warnings for early Saturday west of the Blue Ridge, freeze watches just to the east.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
216 PM EDT Thu May 7 2020

MDZ003-VAZ025>031-507-508-WVZ050>053-055-080230-
/O.UPG.KLWX.FZ.A.0005.200509T0400Z-200509T1400Z/
/O.NEW.KLWX.FZ.W.0007.200509T0400Z-200509T1400Z/
Washington-Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-
Clarke-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge-
Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy-
Including the cities of Hagerstown, Staunton, Waynesboro,
Stuarts Draft, Harrisonburg, Strasburg, Woodstock, Mount Jackson,
New Market, Winchester, Luray, Shenandoah, Stanley, Front Royal,
Berryville, Big Meadows, Wintergreen, Romney, Paw Paw,
Martinsburg, Charles Town, Shepherdstown, and Moorefield
216 PM EDT Thu May 7 2020

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 10 AM
EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 28 expected.

* WHERE...Portions of north central Maryland, central, northwest
  and western Virginia and eastern and panhandle West Virginia.

* WHEN...From midnight Friday night to 10 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor
  plumbing.

$$

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
216 PM EDT Thu May 7 2020

MDZ501-502-VAZ503-504-WVZ501>506-080230-
/O.UPG.KLWX.FZ.A.0005.200509T0400Z-200509T1400Z/
/O.NEW.KLWX.FZ.W.0007.200509T0400Z-200509T1400Z/
Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-
Western Highland-Eastern Highland-Western Grant-Eastern Grant-
Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton-
Eastern Pendleton-
Including the cities of Frostburg, Cumberland, Hightown,
Monterey, Bayard, Mount Storm, Petersburg, Elk Garden, Antioch,
Keyser, New Creek, Ridgeville, Russelldale, Headsville,
Fort Ashby, Riverton, Brandywine, Franklin, Oak Flat, Ruddle,
and Sugar Grove
216 PM EDT Thu May 7 2020

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 10 AM
EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 23 expected.

* WHERE...In Maryland, Extreme Western Allegany and Central and
  Eastern Allegany Counties. In Virginia, Western Highland and
  Eastern Highland Counties. In West Virginia, Western Grant,
  Eastern Grant, Western Mineral, Eastern Mineral, Western
  Pendleton and Eastern Pendleton Counties.

* WHEN...From midnight Friday night to 10 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor
  plumbing.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
216 PM EDT Thu May 7 2020

MDZ004>006-503-505-507-VAZ036>040-050-051-501-502-505-506-080230-
/O.NEW.KLWX.FZ.A.0006.200509T0400Z-200509T1400Z/
Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Northwest Montgomery-
Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-
Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-Northern Fauquier-
Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-
Including the cities of Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg,
Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Germantown, Damascus,
Lisbon, Jarrettsville, Lovingston, Charlottesville,
Stanardsville, Madison, Washington, Orange, Gordonsville,
Culpeper, Warrenton, Turnbull, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn,
and Sterling
216 PM EDT Thu May 7 2020

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 30 possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central, north central and northern
  Maryland and central, northern and northwest Virginia.

* WHEN...From late Friday night through Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor
  plumbing.

 

 

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Going forecast would threaten both low max and low min readings for this area for Saturday. Records for both at MRB are from 1947 with a high of 51 and a low of 28

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1 hour ago, WVclimo said:

Going forecast would threaten both low max and low min readings for this area for Saturday. Records for both at MRB are from 1947 with a high of 51 and a low of 28

Yea...looking more and more possible that nw areas will go below freezing 2 straight mornings . Saturday should be record low maxes I'd think for many . Most guidance is 43-46 here 

 

And don't forget the wind gusts on Saturday over 30 mph .Early March  Wind chills in full force lol

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Saturday is the spring bird count. Going to have to bundle up like it’s the Christmas count!

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22 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Saturday is the spring bird count. Going to have to bundle up like it’s the Christmas count!

I'm curious. what is this? Never heard of it

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3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I'm curious. what is this? Never heard of it

You count the type and number of birds you see and report them to the Audubon society I believe.

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

You count the type and number of birds you see and report them to the Audubon society I believe.

Ok thanks ...

 

 

 

I thought the  Audubon was a super highway in Europe that people roll over 150 mph on :whistle:

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Per LWX climo page, if I'm doing this correctly, all 3 terminals have had snow in May but only ever a trace:

  • BWI, 5/9/1923
  • DCA, 5/10/1906
  • IAD, 5/1/1963

Note that IAD climo records don't go back as far as DCA and BWI.

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2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Per LWX climo page, if I'm doing this correctly, all 3 terminals have had snow in May but only ever a trace:

  • BWI, 5/9/1923
  • DCA, 5/10/1906
  • IAD, 5/1/1963

Note that IAD climo records don't go back as far as DCA and BWI.

I thought Bwi had a trace in 1977?

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Jokes aside if this was winter the failure of the American guidance (gfs/NAMs) would have been epic. Adjusting for the warm boundary layers due to the time of year...had this been winter the GFS/NAM would have basically been holding onto a major 6-12” snowstorm for parts of the mid Atlantic and simply caved at less than 24 hours to the rest of global guidance that never really bit on that foolishness.  

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2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EURO.  Record cold Saturday.  Think if we stay below 52 at DC for a high breaks a record from the 1870s.

3529E777-BB8B-4AB3-BEEE-A7BBE043EE86.png

F6E662F9-1982-4548-B7FB-70400F220AB5.png

Mentioned last night I think IAD all time March low is 28 and BWI and DCA 31 and 33  for date.( I think)?

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Freeze watches moving ever closer to Baltimore and Washington.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
330 AM EDT Fri May 8 2020

MDZ006-507-081530-
/O.CON.KLWX.FZ.A.0006.200509T0400Z-200509T1400Z/
Northern Baltimore-Northwest Harford-
Including the cities of Reisterstown, Cockeysville,
and Jarrettsville
330 AM EDT Fri May 8 2020

...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 31 possible.

* WHERE...Northern Baltimore and Northwest Harford Counties.

* WHEN...From late tonight through Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor
  plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
330 AM EDT Fri May 8 2020

MDZ004-005-503-505-VAZ036>040-050-051-501-502-505-506-081530-
/O.NEW.KLWX.FZ.A.0007.200510T0400Z-200510T1400Z/
/O.CON.KLWX.FZ.A.0006.200509T0400Z-200509T1400Z/
Frederick MD-Carroll-Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Nelson-
Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-
Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-
Eastern Loudoun-
Including the cities of Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg,
Westminster, Germantown, Damascus, Lisbon, Lovingston,
Charlottesville, Stanardsville, Madison, Washington, Orange,
Gordonsville, Culpeper, Warrenton, Turnbull, Purcellville,
Leesburg, Ashburn, and Sterling
330 AM EDT Fri May 8 2020

...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...
...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...For the first Freeze Watch, sub-freezing temperatures
  as low as 31 possible. For the second Freeze Watch, sub-
  freezing temperatures as low as 31 possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central and north central Maryland and
  central, northern and northwest Virginia.

* WHEN...For the first Freeze Watch, from late tonight through
  Saturday morning. For the second Freeze Watch, from late
  Saturday night through Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor
  plumbing.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
330 AM EDT Fri May 8 2020

MDZ504-506-VAZ052-053-055-056-081530-
/O.NEW.KLWX.FZ.A.0007.200510T0400Z-200510T1400Z/
Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-
Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-Stafford-
Spotsylvania-
Including the cities of Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg,
Silver Spring, Columbia, Ellicott City, Dale City, Manassas,
Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston, Herndon, Annandale,
Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Falmouth,
and Fredericksburg
330 AM EDT Fri May 8 2020

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 31 possible.

* WHERE...In Maryland, Central and Southeast Montgomery and
  Central and Southeast Howard Counties. In Virginia, Prince
  William/Manassas/Manassas Park, Fairfax, Stafford and
  Spotsylvania Counties.

* WHEN...From late Saturday night through Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor
  plumbing.


$$

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Model snowfall maps are always wrong.

Still looks like a coating to a couple inches for the western highlands. I mean, it is May.

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Looks like there are still some pretty significant differences among the guidance on  rainfall amounts/specific location for the region. Generally looks like the heaviest will be in the northern third, but some Mesos have another max on the coastal plain. 

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8 hours ago, JakkelWx said:

there was probably a foot of snow in june down here during the maunder minimum

Someone yesterday cited a May storm in the 1770s (based on journals) that dropped 4 inches in northern VA with higher amounts north and east.

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Found it -- George BM posted:  Now still before that, in the pre-record era, accumulating snow fell from Northern Virginia through the NE corridor on May 4, 1774 with 4 inches falling in Northern VA and even more falling in places northeast. This was recorded in diaries.

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20 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

Found it -- George BM posted:  Now still before that, in the pre-record era, accumulating snow fell from Northern Virginia through the NE corridor on May 4, 1774 with 4 inches falling in Northern VA and even more falling in places northeast. This was recorded in diaries.

Yeap. Here are some links to that event below:

https://glenallenweather.com/alink/18snow/snowmaps2/Great Atlantic coastal snowstorms.pdf

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/04/03/you-wont-believe-how-late-it-snowed-in-d-c-in-colonial-times/

 

 

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9 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Jokes aside if this was winter the failure of the American guidance (gfs/NAMs) would have been epic. Adjusting for the warm boundary layers due to the time of year...had this been winter the GFS/NAM would have basically been holding onto a major 6-12” snowstorm for parts of the mid Atlantic and simply caved at less than 24 hours to the rest of global guidance that never really bit on that foolishness.  

So, a typical Mid Atlantic event then?

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