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C.A.P.E.

March Medium/Long Range Disco

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17 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Fair enough But it has snowed on March 15th.  You are saying a 1050 wedging south with a deepening low off NC would still be rain everywhere or just 95 East? This as depicted isn’t a deepening low anyway. 

Ofc it has. This year? Highly doubt it. As depicted it is not wedging very far south- it is sliding across to the north with nothing impeding it, and no there isn't a deep low. Just mentioned that because with progressive flow it would likely still end up being a fail, outside of perfect timing and a rapidly deepening low in the right spot.

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28 minutes ago, Ji said:

have we had a 1050 high? Its only 100 hours out pretty much. We just need a moisture stream

Come on.  You know it's not going to be there tonight.   When have we ever gotten two good runs in a row or something that holds. 

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3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Ofc it has. This year? Highly doubt it. As depicted it is not wedging very far south- it is sliding across to the north with nothing impeding it, and no there isn't a deep low. Just mentioned that because with progressive flow it would likely still end up being a fail, outside of perfect timing and a rapidly deepening low in the right spot.

Agreed all points.  Fun to talk about something other than blooming flowers.  We’ll watch it but Randy is right..two good runs is folly at this point. 

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Ofc it has. This year? Highly doubt it. As depicted it is not wedging very far south- it is sliding across to the north with nothing impeding it, and no there isn't a deep low. Just mentioned that because with progressive flow it would likely still end up being a fail, outside of perfect timing and a rapidly deepening low in the right spot.

I understand where you're coming from but in this particular setup as is not sure we need a rapidly deepening low as much as just a half decent sw ( say 1006 - 1010 mb coming at us w to e or wsw to ene )...with moderate + rates .Gefs verbatim keeps the mid Atlantic in northerly flow for 36 hrs + Saturday through Sunday. Ample time for a sw to run at us . The  Atlantic side doesn't look as crappy as many previous setups . The biggest problem is the strength of the vort energy imao.  If we can get a decent piece to eject instead of strungout pieces. Just my opinion lol. Still low chance but its something to track 

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13 minutes ago, Ji said:

Omg 2 good gfs runs in a row

Good run for i81 corridor to BR... i95 naso much

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Snow TV would be a win in my book.  Even if for just a few hours. I’ll bet against it, but would gladly lose that bet if we could pull it off. 

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2 hours ago, BristowWx said:

Might be some snow tv..new channel for us

When I watched my first TV in the early 50’s snow, depending on antennae/location, could be found on all the available channels. As always .... 

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57 minutes ago, Ji said:

our first legit snow threat all winter and nobdy is posting on it

I think because even on good runs it’s only 1-2” (if that) for most. I don’t think at this point anyone cares about 1-2”. But if we get a run that shows 6”+ across guidance I bet this thread lights up quick. 

There is a slight chance the wave juices up some as we get closer but the flow is de-amplified in the east.  Cold is only one part of the equation. 

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19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think because even on good runs it’s only 1-2” (if that) for most. I don’t think at this point anyone cares about 1-2”. But if we get a run that shows 6”+ across guidance I bet this thread lights up quick. 

There is a slight chance the wave juices up some as we get closer but the flow is de-amplified in the east.  Cold is only one part of the equation. 

when your season total is 0---i would care about 1-2

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3 hours ago, Ji said:

our first legit snow threat all winter and nobdy is posting on it

DC folks are mostly out of this. Best of luck to the forest-dwellers.

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Which way y’all think the gfs is trending lol

Drier.  But 850s are cold at least. Meh. Not our winter no matter what the set up.  I’ve made peace with it..but still tracking. 

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Drier.  But 850s are cold at least. Meh. Not our winter no matter what the set up.  I’ve made peace with it..but still tracking. 
Why track if you made your peace already? Just move on

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

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18 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said:

Why track if you made your peace already? Just move on

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
 

Just something I enjoy even if it produces no tangible result which is what I’ve made my peace with. If I only tracked events with real potential I’d hardly ever track. 

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41 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said:

Why track if you made your peace already? Just move on

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
 

Why be a jackass if you made your peace already? Just move on.

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