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February 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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18 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Are you a mild and snowless winter fan?  Your posts often seem to indicate so. There are many who are in the general public, I would say the majority, but not many on weather forums. 

Yes he is

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11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Because he always says the same thing. Come on man. You have been on here for a while.

Yes it is the stark similarities and commonalities in all his posts.  I suspect Snow88 is a cold weather and snow fan for similar reasons.. Common threads in his posts. 

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1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Because he always says the same thing. Come on man. You have been on here for a while.

People in glass houses....

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Today saw widespread readings in the 50s and 60s in the Middle Atlantic region. High temperatures included:

Atlantic City: 64°; Baltimore: 67° (old record: 66°, 1932); Bridgeport: 53°; Clarksburg, WV: 67° (old record: 66°, 1989); Islip: 53°; New York City: 57°; Newark: 58°; Philadelphia: 60°; Sterling: 67° (old record: 66°, 1991); Washington, DC: 63°; and, Wilmington, DE: 64° (tied record set in 1991).

Across the Atlantic where winter has been largely absent, even greater warmth prevailed. Locations in France and Italy saw record daily highs and, in cases, February record high temperatures. Europe remains on track for a much warmer than normal February with the greatest warmth likely occurring in eastern Europe and western Russia.

Tomorrow will be another unseasonably mild day. Overall, the first week of February will be much warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The February 1-7 mean temperature will likely average 40.0° or higher in New York City.

Since 1869, New York City has had 10 prior cases where the temperature averaged 40.0° or above during the February 1-7 period. All 10 cases saw a warmer than normal February. The mean monthly temperature was 38.2°. Eight of those cases occurred during 1990 or later.

Somewhat colder air could return late in the first week of February or just afterward. However, Arctic air is unlikely. In addition, no significant snowfalls (6" or above) are likely through at least the first week of February for Washington, DC to New York City and the surrounding region.

Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, a pair of storms will likely snowfall to parts of northern Pennsylvania, central and upstate New York, and northern New England Wednesday night and Thursday and Thursday night into Friday. The second storm will likely be the larger of the two. The major cities from Washington to New York City will likely see no more than a light accumulation from that storm. Another system could follow during the weekend.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around January 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions.

The SOI was -8.79 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.279.

The guidance suggests that the AO could spend an extended period at or above +3.000 beginning during the second week of the month. Since 1950, none of the 36 days during which the AO was +3.000 or above saw daily snowfall of 1" or more in New York City or Philadelphia. During the overall February 5-20, 1950-2019 period, daily snowfall of 1" or more occurred on 8% days in New York City and 7% of days in Philadelphia. The biggest snowstorm during that timeframe when the AO was +3.000 or above was February 9-10, 1982. Boston picked up 4.0" snow; New York City received 0.3" snow; and, Philadelphia saw 0.6" snow.

No significant stratospheric warming is likely through February 11. Wave 2 activity will dissipate following the first week of February. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through into the second week of February.

On February 2, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.593 (RMM). The February 1-adjusted amplitude was 0.623.

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6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Today saw widespread readings in the 50s and 60s in the Middle Atlantic region. High temperatures included:

Atlantic City: 64°; Baltimore: 67° (old record: 66°, 1932); Bridgeport: 53°; Clarksburg, WV: 67° (old record: 66°, 1989); Islip: 53°; New York City: 57°; Newark: 58°; Philadelphia: 60°; Sterling: 67° (old record: 66°, 1991); Washington, DC: 63°; and, Wilmington, DE: 64° (tied record set in 1991).

Across the Atlantic where winter has been largely absent, even greater warmth prevailed. Locations in France and Italy saw record daily highs and, in cases, February record high temperatures. Europe remains on track for a much warmer than normal February with the greatest warmth likely occurring in eastern Europe and western Russia.

Tomorrow will be another unseasonably mild day. Overall, the first week of February will be much warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The February 1-7 mean temperature will likely average 40.0° or higher in New York City.

Since 1869, New York City has had 10 prior cases where the temperature averaged 40.0° or above during the February 1-7 period. All 10 cases saw a warmer than normal February. The mean monthly temperature was 38.2°. Eight of those cases occurred during 1990 or later.

Somewhat colder air could return late in the first week of February or just afterward. However, Arctic air is unlikely. In addition, no significant snowfalls (6" or above) are likely through at least the first week of February for Washington, DC to New York City and the surrounding region.

Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, a pair of storms will likely snowfall to parts of northern Pennsylvania, central and upstate New York, and northern New England Wednesday night and Thursday and Thursday night into Friday. The second storm will likely be the larger of the two. The major cities from Washington to New York City will likely see no more than a light accumulation from that storm. Another system could follow during the weekend.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around January 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions.

The SOI was -8.79 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.279.

The guidance suggests that the AO could spend an extended period at or above +3.000 beginning during the second week of the month. Since 1950, none of the 36 days during which the AO was +3.000 or above saw daily snowfall of 1" or more in New York City or Philadelphia. During the overall February 5-20, 1950-2019 period, daily snowfall of 1" or more occurred on 8% days in New York City and 7% of days in Philadelphia. The biggest snowstorm during that timeframe when the AO was +3.000 or above was February 9-10, 1982. Boston picked up 4.0" snow; New York City received 0.3" snow; and, Philadelphia saw 0.6" snow.

No significant stratospheric warming is likely through February 11. Wave 2 activity will dissipate following the first week of February. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through into the second week of February.

On February 2, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.593 (RMM). The February 1-adjusted amplitude was 0.623.

Reading this just makes me say to myself, the sooner this winter ends the better. 

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7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Because he always says the same thing. Come on man. You have been on here for a while.

I give credit where credit is do. You were calling Bluewave a warmista a while back for posting reality of whats going on with regards to our crappy winter.           

I like snow just about as much as anybody here but you have to face reality and take the snow googles off. 

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13 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Reading this just makes me say to myself, the sooner this winter ends the better. 

I hope we can get at least a moderate, if not significant snowfall, before winter concludes. It has been a painful winter so far.

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2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I hope we can get at least a moderate, if not significant snowfall, before winter concludes. It has been a painful winter so far.

Agree. Just one would make me happy. To have more than two winters in a row with very little snow is rare so I at least feel better about next winter. 

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19 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Agree. Just one would make me happy. To have more than two winters in a row with very little snow is rare so I at least feel better about next winter. 

Longer stretches are possible. For example, the 1949-50 through 1954-55 winters saw 6 consecutive winters where NYC received less than 20" snow. The average seasonal snowfall was just 14.6".

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41 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Agree. Just one would make me happy. To have more than two winters in a row with very little snow is rare so I at least feel better about next winter. 

it isn't rare. Anyone who lived in the 80's and 90's can tell you that. I've seen 4-5 years between significant snowfalls. In fact there were only a few events of note throughout the entire 1980's, and most of those were in 1982 and 83. Then 87. There were probably a few others but they were localized and certainly not IMBY. In fact, there was no good reason to own a snowblower. Didn't snow that often.

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Just now, weatherpruf said:

it isn't rare. Anyone who lived in the 80's and 90's can tell you that. I've seen 4-5 years between significant snowfalls. In fact there were only a few events of note throughout the entire 1980's, and most of those were in 1982 and 83. Then 87. There were probably a few others but they were localized and certainly not IMBY. In fact, there was no good reason to own a snowblower. Didn't snow that often.

It’s rare to have seasons under 10” in a row back to back isnt it? I know the 80a weren’t good but they were peppered with 20” years right? 

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1 hour ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I used to look up to that guy in the 90s reading his accuweather blog

 

hes probably saying ice age coming in March. 

He got dragged pretty badly this month.  He had 881 HDD Feb due to something called a Grand Planetary Alignment.  That theory isn't going well.

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4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

2nd winter in a row  where meteorologists disregarded the mjo.

Most meteorologists I know did not disregard the MJO.  If anything, the pattern did not mimic the expected outcome when it transitioned to the 'colder phases' this year.  What does that tell you?  If you want to say that maybe the MJO has had more of an IO/warmer phase bias and that bathwater from a slow monsoon advancement north of Australia torpedoed cold chances earlier in winter, that's fine by me. 

 

But in a year with very little blocking and a strong ass MJO that was coherent thru the colder phases, we still never got durable cold.  When that happens odds are other things going on overwhelmed the typical MJO wave response.  And that again brings us back to the PV...

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Where we end up Feb temp wise remains to be seen, but with 40 years of records, the last two Febs were my warmest on record...hate to make it three straight. 

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Good Tuesday morning everyone, (Feb 4),

Thinking a few hours of ice is pretty good bet ne PA/nw NJ -I84 Thursday morning with delays. 

Saturday night or Sunday morning (Feb 8-9): Not agreed upon in the operational models but ensembles and several models have a little snow for NYC-LI. I would think it would  be cold enough for a light snow accumulation but timing with surface temps will play a role.  Models generally see potential for several inches accumulation... especially west of NYC.  Not a guarantee but potential exists. A seasonably cold weekend finally!   No graphics today.   

Negative EPO still being modeled. Unsure of its impact here in NYC. 

I wont be back on the forum til probably sometime tonight. 

549A/4 

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The next 8 days are averaging 41degs., or about 8degs. AN.

47* here at 6am.     46* at 6:30am.       45* at 9am.        49* by Noon, earlier drizzle.       54* by 3pm.      55* at 3:15pm.     56* at 3:30pm.       58* at 4pm.

Great News!   06Z GFS is averaging 29* [in it's last 5 days] Sorry, fooled ya.     Actually 38* over the next 17 days, or about 3degs. AN.     It has a total of 18" of snow this run.       EURO Weeklies have us on the borderline of AN/BN  by late in 3rd week of February.      For February it is +3/4.        The start of sustained 'cold weather' has slipped in the last week from the 13th. to the 16th.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

January finished with the 3rd most positive AO index for the month behind 1993 and 1989. Jan 1993...+3.495...1989....+3.106....2020...+2.419.

Models continuing to forecast levels getting above +5. This would be near the all-time highest values.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii.table

A2BBD453-38FD-48E9-BCF2-9873A18115D9.thumb.gif.fa58a2892ea2027556057f04cdf46bae.gif

 

Snowiest month for both years was March.

I wonder if there is a correlation. Obviously sample size is miniscule.

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11 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

it isn't rare. Anyone who lived in the 80's and 90's can tell you that. I've seen 4-5 years between significant snowfalls. In fact there were only a few events of note throughout the entire 1980's, and most of those were in 1982 and 83. Then 87. There were probably a few others but they were localized and certainly not IMBY. In fact, there was no good reason to own a snowblower. Didn't snow that often.

First time I saw a snow blower was after the great winter of 1995-96. Until then it seemed laughable to invest in one (in/near the city) unless you owned some massive plot of land. It wasn't something that really entered in most peoples mind. After 95-96 I notice a few people buy them, only to largely sit idle for the rest of the decade. The then unprecedented 4 straight 40"+ winters in NYC arrived in the 2000s and brought them back out...if you still had it. Winters like this one I learn to take in stride.  I got to experience snow amounts and frequency beyond what I ever thought possible in the city and coast during the 2000s to now. The duds are a reminder that consistently getting a parade of significant snow is not a given, and hasn't always been the case. Even last winter, for all the complaints, ended up nearly 80% of normal ( at NYC). That seems well within the expected range from year to year.

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16 minutes ago, dWave said:

First time I saw a snow blower was after the great winter of 1995-96. Until then it seemed laughable to invest in one (in/near the city) unless you owned some massive plot of land. It wasn't something that really entered in most peoples mind. After 95-96 I notice a few people buy them, only to largely sit idle for the rest of the decade. The then unprecedented 4 straight 40"+ winters in NYC arrived in the 2000s and brought them back out...if you still had it. Winters like this one I learn to take in stride.  I got to experience snow amounts and frequency beyond what I ever thought possible in the city and coast during the 2000s to now. The duds are a reminder that consistently getting a parade of significant snow is not a given, and hasn't always been the case. Even last winter, for all the complaints, ended up nearly 80% of normal ( at NYC). That seems well within the expected range from year to year.

Exactly, nobody on LI had snowblowers in the 80s and 90s. Only after the 2000s did people really invest. I still dont have one, and my neighbor who bought one in fall 2008 only used his once, for some slop. We havent had to really shovel any snow this "winter". Better investment is to pay the local kids $40-$60 to clear out the driveway once every 3 years...

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1 minute ago, psv88 said:

Exactly, nobody on LI had snowblowers in the 80s and 90s. Only after the 2000s did people really invest. I still dont have one, and my neighbor who bought one in fall 2008 only used his once, for some slop. We havent had to really shovel any snow this "winter". Better investment is to pay the local kids $40-$60 to clear out the driveway once every 3 years...

I have barely shoved/cleared here in 2 years...once last March for the 10 incher and this Jan for the 3 inches...other than that, the shovels and blower sit idle along with the 5 gallon bucket of rock salt I bought before last winter (has yet to be opened)

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4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I have barely shoved/cleared here in 2 years...once last March for the 10 incher and this Jan for the 3 inches...other than that, the shovels and blower sit idle along with the 5 gallon bucket of rock salt I bought before last winter (has yet to be opened)

Yea i mean i dont mind it. We have almost 10" this winter, and every storm was mainly slop on the roads, or was a snow to rain situation where i knew it would melt the next day. I dont miss shoveling...

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1 minute ago, psv88 said:

Exactly, nobody on LI had snowblowers in the 80s and 90s. Only after the 2000s did people really invest. I still dont have one, and my neighbor who bought one in fall 2008 only used his once, for some slop. We havent had to really shovel any snow this "winter". Better investment is to pay the local kids $40-$60 to clear out the driveway once every 3 years...

My John Deere has been sitting in my shed for two winters now. That being said, I don’t think snowblowers were really pushed in the market during the 80’s and 90’s. I feel society was more of a “do it yourself attitude” back then. I remember in the 90’s once the snow stopped army’s of family’s with shovels at every house. 
 

In the 2000s the snowblowers have become more homeowner friendly, people have become lazy, and kids rather play Xbox.

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4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

My John Deere has been sitting in my shed for two winters now. That being said, I don’t think snowblowers were really pushed in the market during the 80’s and 90’s. I feel society was more of a “do it yourself attitude” back then. I remember in the 90’s once the snow stopped army’s of family’s with shovels at every house. 
 

In the 2000s the snowblowers have become more homeowner friendly, people have become lazy, and kids rather play Xbox.

That's true as well for sure. As i kid i was out there mid storm shoveling the snow, just for the hell of it. Every 2 inches i was out there clearing the driveway, neighbors must have thought i was nuts. 

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4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

That's true as well for sure. As i kid i was out there mid storm shoveling the snow, just for the hell of it. Every 2 inches i was out there clearing the driveway, neighbors must have thought i was nuts. 

Ha I did the same thing-I wanted to make big piles that would last.  Of course it was the 80's, so snow was rare and it was somewhat of a novelty to shovel.

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4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The midrange 20’s snowfall seasons have vanished at places like BNL since the 93-94 winter. They used to be common before then. Snowfall distribution has become more extreme. Now snowfall is either over 30” or under 20”. 
 

https://www.bnl.gov/weather/4cast/MonthlySnowfall.htm

4064E077-8CC5-479F-ADDE-CF4FBA710F1F.thumb.png.4976ec69c8b697a7ca559b42ab5caa51.png

 


 

 

I would much rather have the extreme. 

 

Who wants 10 years of 25 inch seasons.

 

70 one year, 10 for 2. The 60 to 70 seasons make the chase worth it. 

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13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Ha I did the same thing-I wanted to make big piles that would last.  Of course it was the 80's, so snow was rare and it was somewhat of a novelty to shovel.

The winter of 95-96 I shoveled my neighbor’s driveway for 20 bucks a storm. During the 96 blizzard I waved the white flag and they got a backhoe to plow it. That family is probably still laughing to this day about the money and back aches they saved that winter.

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