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February 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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Gotta love what JB has been doing by changing analogs by the week or two in one week, hoping to hit the right one.        Then when some uninformed idiot interviews him he will point to that one and not be asked about all the 'fails'.        This is could also be prearranged----DON'T ASK ME ABOUT THAT ONE!........I TOLD YOU THAT.       This is regularly done on the business  channels when so called gurus and experts are given a chance to blab away a 'commercial announcement' w/o challenge.          Even the written word is corrupted this way when you read a series of real news stories, then come to one with the microtype     THIS IS A SPONSORED AD     but you miss the fine print.

You can't get out of a hole by making it bigger and deeper........... unless you intend to dig all the way through the Earth and emerge from the antipodes point.    LOL

Really this weekend looks like the only chance for snow as THK stays near critical level all the rest of the time.      The 17/18 probably has no precipitation anyway.

2020020512_054@007_E1_knyc_I_NAEFS@EPSGR

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2 hours ago, Minenfeld! said:

This is one of the things that bothers me about people who say "if it's not gonna snow, make it warm": we need the cold to kill off these pests and keep the ecosystem functioning. It's not about your personal comfort level.

It’s a good thing that Weather/Climate is wholly unaffected by individual comfort levels*, I want a string of 70’s right now but I’ll settle for what we’ve been getting.

*Oddly enough, EWR did reach 80 in February 2018, a mere 2 weeks after I made a post suggesting that very thing was bound to happen in the future.

But despite the mild temperatures this winter it hasn’t been consistently warm enough to disturb the already heavily disturbed natural environment from its slumber. Enjoy the not-cold weather.

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1 hour ago, Cfa said:

It’s a good thing that Weather/Climate is wholly unaffected by individual comfort levels*, I want a string of 70’s right now but I’ll settle for what we’ve been getting.

*Oddly enough, EWR did reach 80 in February 2018, a mere 2 weeks after I made a post suggesting that very thing was bound to happen in the future.

But despite the mild temperatures this winter it hasn’t been consistently warm enough to disturb the already heavily disturbed natural environment from its slumber. Enjoy the not-cold weather.

I don't disagree but I will say there are buds on the trees outside my job in Manhattan from that 65 degree day back in January.

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Currently 33/19.    a section of Upton’s AFD below for some frozen types tonight.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Forecast is generally on track. Precipitation currently over the
Delmarva peninsula will make its way into the forecast area
around midnight, with some scattered precipitation moving in
beforehand. Pushed back the slight chance POPs about an hour
later than previously forecast based on mesoscale guidance.
Also, dew points are lower than previously forecast. Will have
to monitor how they progress over the next couple of hours for
possibility of brief wintry mix where rain is currently
forecast for the onset of the precipitation.

Winter weather advisories remain in effect for portions of interior
NE NJ, the Lower Hudson Valley, and interior souther CT for a
period of freezing rain late tonight into Friday morning.

 

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Today was noticeably cooler than yesterday, but still warmer than normal for the season. Overall, the first week of February will be much warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The February 1-7 mean temperature will very likely average 40.0° or higher in New York City.

Since 1869, New York City has had 10 prior cases where the temperature averaged 40.0° or above during the February 1-7 period. All 10 cases saw a warmer than normal February. The mean monthly temperature was 38.2°. Eight of those cases occurred during 1990 or later.

Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic Cities through at least the first 10 days of February.

Nevertheless, the pattern will be increasingly active over the next week. Tonight into tomorrow and tomorrow night into Friday, a pair of storms will affect the region. Over the next 60 hours, much of the region will see 1.25"-2.50" precipitation with locally higher amounts. The most likely areas to see accumulating snowfall from these storms will be northern Pennsylvania, central and upstate New York, and northern New England. 

Another system could follow during the weekend. Some rain or snow showers with perhaps a minor accumulation of snow is possible from Washington, DC to New York City.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around January 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions.

The SOI was +6.34 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.167.

During the second week of February, the AO could generally be at or above +2.000 following a peak of +4.000 or above. At the same time, the NAO will likely be positive and the PNA will likely be negative. Since 1950, there have been no 4" or greater snowstorms during February with such teleconnections in Philadelphia or New York City. Boston saw four, with the biggest being 10.2" on February 24-25, 1990. The biggest snowfalls in Philadelphia and New York City were 2.3" and 2.0" respectively.

No significant stratospheric warming is likely through February 13. Wave 2 activity will dissipate following the first week of February. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through into the second week of February.

On February 4, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.681 (RMM). The February 3-adjusted amplitude was 0.681.

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1 hour ago, Nibor said:

I don't disagree but I will say there are buds on the trees outside my job in Manhattan from that 65 degree day back in January.

I'm frankly tired of this damp gloomy weather. it's like an endless late autumn. Once in awhile the sun peeks through but its windy and a little colder so you can't really enjoy it. It's not quite cold enough to feel like true winter, and not nearly warm enough to be spring like. It just sucks. About another month or so and we hopefully will warm up enough to at least enjoy a walk in the park.

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Really extreme pattern coming up for the North Atlantic and surrounding regions.

 

image.thumb.png.fd7292dd9358a895b073f992eadbb18b.png

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Models indicating a possible sting jet as the low passes by us while rapidly intensifying. 

Wind advisories likely behind the system with potential for more.

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Models indicating a possible sting jet as the low passes by us while rapidly intensifying. 

Wind advisories likely behind the system with potential for more.

Friday afternoon definitely looks interesting. The 12Z UKMET showed some 60-70MPH wind gusts affecting NYC as the low races by just to the north. 00Z runs is even deeper with the low. Wouldn't be surprised to see some shallow convection with this, given lapse rates and a raging 185KT jet streak just offshore.

2146727104_ScreenShot2020-02-06at12_05_17AM.thumb.png.091d1f5ad7f3de4ab17f9d26690ae1c3.png

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2 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Friday afternoon definitely looks interesting. The 12Z UKMET showed some 60-70MPH wind gusts affecting NYC as the low races by just to the north. 00Z runs is even deeper with the low. Wouldn't be surprised to see some shallow convection with this, given lapse rates and a raging 185KT jet streak just offshore.

2146727104_ScreenShot2020-02-06at12_05_17AM.thumb.png.091d1f5ad7f3de4ab17f9d26690ae1c3.png

Maybe this could spin up a few water spouts!

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4 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Maybe this could spin up a few water spouts!

This forecast sounding from LI shows the instability is based between 850-900mb.  The inversion is far too strong to get a water spout, but the combo of a pressure fall/rise couplet associated with the passing low/front in addition to strong cold air advection just behind the front will likely allow some of the 40-50KT winds to mix to the surface for a few hours. 

642639364_ScreenShot2020-02-06at12_13_36AM.thumb.png.b80ba0d92042f194c26789837e24732e.png

 

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4 hours ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Currently 33/19.    a section of Upton’s AFD below for some frozen types tonight.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Forecast is generally on track. Precipitation currently over the
Delmarva peninsula will make its way into the forecast area
around midnight, with some scattered precipitation moving in
beforehand. Pushed back the slight chance POPs about an hour
later than previously forecast based on mesoscale guidance.
Also, dew points are lower than previously forecast. Will have
to monitor how they progress over the next couple of hours for
possibility of brief wintry mix where rain is currently
forecast for the onset of the precipitation.

Winter weather advisories remain in effect for portions of interior
NE NJ, the Lower Hudson Valley, and interior souther CT for a
period of freezing rain late tonight into Friday morning.

 

Yea I noticed dewpoints are still pretty low, theres room for evaporational cooling for sure, obviously will only have any real impact for the interior zones of the area.

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40 here

 

I will be looking at webcams from upstate all day today and just imagine that was the coast getting all that snow.

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5 hours ago, purduewx80 said:

Friday afternoon definitely looks interesting. The 12Z UKMET showed some 60-70MPH wind gusts affecting NYC as the low races by just to the north. 00Z runs is even deeper with the low. Wouldn't be surprised to see some shallow convection with this, given lapse rates and a raging 185KT jet streak just offshore.

2146727104_ScreenShot2020-02-06at12_05_17AM.thumb.png.091d1f5ad7f3de4ab17f9d26690ae1c3.png

Models keep trending stronger with this, latest NAM is quite a doozy for the area. 

Not very often we see a sub 975 intensifying low pass through the city. 

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Next 8 days are averaging 42degs., or about 8.5degs. AN.

42* here at 6am+Rain.  41* at 6:30am.     44* by Noon+drizzle.

Next 17 days on the 06Z GFS are averaging 35degs., or about 1deg. AN, with 7" of Snow from the 17th onward.

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Good Thursday morning, Feb 6.  A few thoughts.

1) Thinking all that shallow cold air  near Albany might tend to drain south toward nw NJ next 24hours with surprise high terrain icing into tonight above 1500 feet near the Sussex Orange county border. Mesoscale n-ne flow with a wave out to the s of LI today-tonight. 

2) Agree w previous posters on damaging wind potential NJ-CT-MA ,maybe even se NYS ,with extreme low pres followed by very strong pres rises in the afternoon and slug of CAA.  Also, I'll try and check, but unsure if a gravity wave has been considered for our area tomorrow?  IF?? that would occur, wind gusts in places would easily exceed 60MPH.  

3) I'm getting some confidence back that at least ne/PA/nw NJ/interior se NYS should see a period or two of snow Sat night-early Sun (mid-Atlc states sw passage), and again Sun night (WAA). Plenty cold for sure...  and then does any meager snow accumulate in NYC (less than 1")?  I think we need 2 more days of model evolution see if any consensus develops but am pretty sure nw NJ high terrain will see some snow accumulation this weekend. 

617A/6

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35 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Models keep trending stronger with this, latest NAM is quite a doozy for the area. 

Not very often we see a sub 975 intensifying low pass through the city. 

I tend to agree there could be some strong winds and damage with this. It’s been relatively calm for a couple weeks wind wise. I’m looking forward to enjoying the right side of the storm in Vermont tomorrow 

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8 hours ago, Dan76 said:

image.thumb.png.fd7292dd9358a895b073f992eadbb18b.png

Amazing fetch, that’s going to create one monster swell aimed at Europe. I would Not be surprised to see some of the largest waves ever ridden at Nazaree Portugal. It’s too bad that thing will not disrupt the PV and drop the AO

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Models keep trending stronger with this, latest NAM is quite a doozy for the area. 

Not very often we see a sub 975 intensifying low pass through the city. 

Also the models have been pretty consistent with this for a few runs now. The NWS seems to be hesitant to ramp up the winds on Friday, although I noticed they are finally calling for some gusts in the 30s and 40s.

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1 hour ago, lee59 said:

Also the models have been pretty consistent with this for a few runs now. The NWS seems to be hesitant to ramp up the winds on Friday, although I noticed they are finally calling for some gusts in the 30s and 40s.

Mt. Holly now strongly indicating most of NJ at least should get into wind advisory criteria with 45-50mph gusts. 

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4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Mt. Holly now strongly indicating most of NJ at least should get into wind advisory criteria with 45-50mph gusts. 

I could see them issuing it for coastal areas. Not so much for inland areas. Gonna be brutal being sandblasted taking pictures of the surf tomorrow

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