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February 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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26 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

I would much rather have the extreme. 

 

Who wants 10 years of 25 inch seasons.

 

70 one year, 10 for 2. The 60 to 70 seasons make the chase worth it. 

I would much rather have a series of great KU events than a bunch of smaller ones adding up to 20 something. Our snowfall seasons have become more like a power hitter that either homers or strikes out a lot. So it leaves us open to slump years when it’s a struggle to just get on base.

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5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The winter of 95-96 I shoveled my neighbor’s driveway for 20 bucks a storm. During the 96 blizzard I waved the white flag and they got a backhoe to plow it. That family is probably still laughing to this day about the money and back aches they saved that winter.

Lucky. I would shovel people's driveways too. But I wasn't allowed to accept any money from my neighbors. But it taught me a good lesson to not be greedy

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I would much rather have a series of great KU events than a bunch of smaller ones adding up to 20 something. Our snowfall seasons have become more like a power hitter that either homers or strikes out a lot. So it leaves us open to slump years when it’s a struggle to get just get on base.

 

I hear ya, but I will take the 0 for 5 at times if my guy can hit a couple 480 feet on any given day. 

I do hate these sub 20 years because it`s 3 months of chasing garbage but if the upside is that one of these years we max out to balance it then I am willing to trade for it. 

 

 * Long duration snow cover FTW tho.

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39 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The midrange 20’s snowfall seasons have vanished at places like BNL since the 93-94 winter. They used to be common before then. Snowfall distribution has become more extreme. Now snowfall is either over 30” or under 20”. 
 

https://www.bnl.gov/weather/4cast/MonthlySnowfall.htm

4064E077-8CC5-479F-ADDE-CF4FBA710F1F.thumb.png.4976ec69c8b697a7ca559b42ab5caa51.png

 


 

 

 

 

multiple years in a row under 10" is rare....I suspect next winter will be different.

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59 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

My John Deere has been sitting in my shed for two winters now. That being said, I don’t think snowblowers were really pushed in the market during the 80’s and 90’s. I feel society was more of a “do it yourself attitude” back then. I remember in the 90’s once the snow stopped army’s of family’s with shovels at every house. 
 

In the 2000s the snowblowers have become more homeowner friendly, people have become lazy, and kids rather play Xbox.

You're so right about people being lazy these days, and that's why the majority of people are overweight which causes so many health problems later in life. That's why I always do my own shoveling, cut my own lawn instead of hiring a service and I also do a lot of running (25 to 30 miles each week). It's sad that so many people refuse to be active these days.

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57 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

The Euro does not the see the same MJO rotation / amplitude that the GEFS does.

 

ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full.gif

It seems the last 1-2 years that when the Euro has an extremely weak MJO and the GFS wants to go insane the Euro is right....on the other end when both agree on a decent amplitude wave the GFS tends to be more correct while the Euro kills it too fast.

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54 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

I for one am very glad to hear that there were no lazy people before 2006. 

modern technological advances have contributed  to the rise in obesity rates IMO - starting in childhood.....

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51 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It seems the last 1-2 years that when the Euro has an extremely weak MJO and the GFS wants to go insane the Euro is right....on the other end when both agree on a decent amplitude wave the GFS tends to be more correct while the Euro kills it too fast.

Roundy plots do not support the gfs thinking. 

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17 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Roundy plots do not support the gfs thinking. 

gfs has been really terrible of late with it's snow predictions reminds me of the old nam...

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19 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

gfs has been really terrible of late with it's snow predictions reminds me of the old nam...

This clown map is total BS every run has totals varying widely

gfs_asnow_us_42.png

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While all the models have had a cold bias beyond 120 hrs, the GEFS has been much worse than the EPS.
 

C070743A-907A-48ED-92AC-995C7BB004F8.png.cd57c0bcd21e1b3e9fc61ad1b981edad.png

D87A86FA-D51A-4F70-8439-4B679BB6A5CE.png.8e1b0e60c08cfe88e96b3a80db398238.png

5694C369-DFF4-4B17-9EBA-7D2F3EB3F4A9.png.a59dea142781e4a0d2a72214c11d1c06.png

E6B2CC35-8F8D-46BE-99C8-6023C993FC05.png.809cc9e888d6b207085adb8c4ce24e36.png

 

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Afternoon thoughts...

1. The light rain that had been affecting parts of the region continues to move eastward, with most of the showers south of Long Island's South Shore.

2. New York City is solidly on track for a 40° or higher mean temperature for the first week of February. The most likely range is 42.0° (7th warmest) to 43.7° (3rd warmest).

3. A series of waves Wednesday night into Thursday and Thursday night into Friday will bring mainly rain to such cities as Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC. Appreciable snow will be confined well north and west of the cities, particularly in an area running from central/upstate New York to northern New England.

4. Another system will move rapidly eastward off the Middle Atlantic coast and out to sea this weekend. Historic experience with the teleconnections and the emerging model consensus suggest that there is the potential for a light accumulation of snow in the above-mentioned cities.  The risk of a significant (6" or greater snowfall) during the weekend is low.

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51 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

This clown map is total BS every run has totals varying widely

gfs_asnow_us_42.png

includes sleet includes sleet includes sleet includes sleet

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1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

This clown map is total BS every run has totals varying widely

gfs_asnow_us_42.png

It’s a 200 hour snowfall map that includes sleet from a op model! Are you really this shocked  by it? 

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Let`s let this one fizzle to another 0 and then we are owed a big year.  @bluewave

Next year or the one after. 

Don`t even want to try salvage anything here, let it die the death it deserves.

 

 

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The latest ensemble guidance continues to suggest that the Arctic Oscillation (AO) will reach extreme positive values (probably +5.000 or above for the first time since March 8, 2015):

AO02042020.jpg

Extreme AO+ situations typically lead to much above normal temperatures on the U.S. East Coast and in Europe. In large part, the consistent guidance suggesting the potential for an extreme AO+ event allowed for a high degree of confidence that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions would likely see a warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal February and that Europe would see a much warmer than normal February (with the warmest anomalies occurring in eastern Europe and western Russia). The cooler air that moves into Europe later this week will again yield to much warmer than normal conditions early next week.

The GEFS Day 8-12 average 500 mb height anomalies forecast shows ridging on the East Coast and over much of Europe. The 8-12 day temperature average is warmer than normal in both areas.

AOextremes02042020.jpg

Finally, should the AO remain strongly positive through mid-month, the probability of significant snowfall in the Middle Atlantic region will be low during that period. Not surprisingly, the ECMWF, which had been showing a potentially major snowstorm during the second week of February has now backed off from that idea.

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The latest PDO value, unsurprisingly, is now strongly negative for January, reflective of the substantial SST cooling across the northern and eastern Pacific. The z500 pattern for February will be quite close to my analog package which featured the composite RNA structure, namely, lower heights toward the NW and higher heights in the SE US.

202001 -1.17

 

 

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26 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

The latest PDO value, unsurprisingly, is now strongly negative for January, reflective of the substantial SST cooling across the northern and eastern Pacific. The z500 pattern for February will be quite close to my analog package which featured the composite RNA structure, namely, lower heights toward the NW and higher heights in the SE US.

202001 -1.17

 

 

This has been our default February pattern since 2017 as this Niña-like  regime continues. 

A5418890-E562-476C-B333-227FA0BDA2C0.png.cb0f99b20d582440d9fefe6dff4e8e39.png

 

2FEA1D8A-FD2C-4C99-BCBE-B016D78DF960.thumb.png.0b7301a48ef5d29014f21c6db298aad2.png

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52 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The latest ensemble guidance continues to suggest that the Arctic Oscillation (AO) will reach extreme positive values (probably +5.000 or above for the first time since March 8, 2015):

AO02042020.jpg

Extreme AO+ situations typically lead to much above normal temperatures on the U.S. East Coast and in Europe. In large part, the consistent guidance suggesting the potential for an extreme AO+ event allowed for a high degree of confidence that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions would likely see a warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal February and that Europe would see a much warmer than normal February (with the warmest anomalies occurring in eastern Europe and western Russia). The cooler air that moves into Europe later this week will again yield to much warmer than normal conditions early next week.

The GEFS Day 8-12 average 500 mb height anomalies forecast shows ridging on the East Coast and over much of Europe. The 8-12 day temperature average is warmer than normal in both areas.

AOextremes02042020.jpg

Finally, should the AO remain strongly positive through mid-month, the probability of significant snowfall in the Middle Atlantic region will be low during that period. Not surprisingly, the ECMWF, which had been showing a potentially major snowstorm during the second week of February has now backed off from that idea.

We won't shoot the messenger.  :)

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