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February 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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1 hour ago, mikem81 said:

you realize the 2016 number is extremely misleading.....most of it was one 30 incher...

What difference does that make for total snowfall over the period? There was also an additional 8.1” at JFK during the first 15 days of February. Some areas picked up 10”+ with the 2-5-16 storm.

PLAINVIEW             10.5   110 PM  2/05  TRAINED SPOTTER
Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Total Snowfall Jan 20 to Feb 15
Missing Count
1 2016-02-15 38.7 0
2 1961-02-15 33.4 0
3 2014-02-15 27.8 0
4 1978-02-15 27.2 0
5 1983-02-15 24.7 0

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Total Snowfall Jan 20 to Feb 15
Missing Count
1 2020-02-15 0.0 3
2 1981-02-15 T 0
- 1980-02-15 T 0

 

 

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6 hours ago, gravitylover said:

It's heavy freezing mist all the way up to Stowe now. Several ski areas are actually talking about how ugly the crust is getting on all exposed areas. By Saturday the areas that have been groomed should be good but firm, open natural areas will be frustrating and the only tree areas that will be skiable are under dense pines hardwoods will be out of the question for a while.

Yup same here but 33.2. I think we're pretty close now on the seasonal total.

Well you just hurt me. Put that knife in and turned. All the way up to Stowe?! 

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At 7 pm EST, the temperature was 10° in Chicago, 19° in Detroit, 33° in Pittsburgh, 43° in New York City,and 47° in Philadelphia. The cold that has now moved into the Great Lakes region will be pushing into the region overnight. As a result, readings will be much below normal tomorrow and on Saturday.

The lowest temperatures on Saturday morning could fall into the teens in New York City and Philadelphia. Readings in the lower teens and perhaps single digits are likely outside both cities.

But then winter's latest effort to take hold will fail again. Warmer air will quickly return. It is likely that the second half of February will be warmer than normal overall. During that time, cold shots will likely be of a short duration.

Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through at least the first three weeks of February. There is a greater but still fairly low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm.

On this date in 2014, Philadelphia received a daily record 10.4" snowfall. This winter, the city is mired in a deepening snow drought. Winter 2019-2020 is just the 7th winter on record that saw Philadelphia receive less than 2" seasonal snowfall through February 13. Mean total snowfall for the 6 prior cases was 3.8" vs. the historic mean figure of 22.6". In addition, 100% of such winters wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall vs. 16% of winters in the historic record. The snowiest case from those prior winters was 1931-32 with 8.0" seasonal snowfall.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around February 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions.

The SOI was -12.49 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.860.

No significant stratospheric warming is likely through February 21, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively suppressed. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS into the third week of February.

On February 12, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.121 (RMM). The February 11-adjusted amplitude was 1.211.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 84% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February and an implied 50% probability that February 2020 will be among the 10 warmest such months on record.

Finally, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-12 AO average is +2.926. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region.

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so far this winter NYC had only two days with a maximum 32 or lower...the record is two set in 1952-53...

winter...# of days max 32 or lower...

2019-20......2 so far...

1952-53......2

1997-98......3

2001-02......3

1931-32......5

2007-08......6

2011-12......6

1918-19......7

1990-91......7

1992-93......7

1974-75......8

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feb 1990 (previous +ao record) was followed by a warm march and a cold april. sounds about right

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3 minutes ago, stemwinder said:

Thanks for the Philly info here, Don.  Your posts are always great.

Forgive me everyone if I do not know this, since my lack of interest is due to this awful winter: 

Has Central Park recorded a temp below 20 degrees F. so far this winter? Thanks.

16 in DEC...

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6 minutes ago, stemwinder said:

Thanks for the Philly info here, Don.  Your posts are always great.

Forgive me everyone if I do not know this, since my lack of interest is due to this awful winter: 

Has Central Park recorded a temp below 20 degrees F. so far this winter? Thanks.

The temperature fell to 16 degrees on December 19.

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2 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

Well you just hurt me. Put that knife in and turned. All the way up to Stowe?! 

LOL Sorry dude. I bet that the groomers that get done will be good just be aware that places that weren't touched or sheltered ought to be crunchy under some fresh stuff that's falling now.

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2 hours ago, uncle W said:

so far this winter NYC had only two days with a maximum 32 or lower...the record is two set in 1952-53...

winter...# of days max 32 or lower...

2019-20......2 so far...

1952-53......2

1997-98......3

2001-02......3

1931-32......5

2007-08......6

2011-12......6

1918-19......7

1990-91......7

1992-93......7

1974-75......8

We'll know if this year's record(tie) will stand by Saturday. Just a disgraceful winter.

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5 hours ago, uncle W said:

so far this winter NYC had only two days with a maximum 32 or lower...the record is two set in 1952-53...

winter...# of days max 32 or lower...

2019-20......2 so far...

1952-53......2

1997-98......3

2001-02......3

1931-32......5

2007-08......6

2011-12......6

1918-19......7

1990-91......7

1992-93......7

1974-75......8

Very good stat Uncle, and it confirms my earlier sentiments that this year has lacked days with cold high temperatures.

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Next 8 days are averaging 35.5degs., or about 1deg. AN.

Month to date is +8.7[42.6].         Should be about +5.8[39.9] by the 22nd.

All models are snow less.

Remainder of February is averaging 37degs. so we should end near +4.2[39.5].

37* here at 6am.     35* at 7am.     33* at 7:30am.      32* at 7:45am.        31* at 8am.       30* at 9am.      Essentially 30* all the way to 31* by 3pm.        28* by 6pm.        26* at 7pm.        23* by 9pm.      21* by 11am.

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Several stations just recorded their warmest first 13 days of February on record. Places like Newark beat 1990. I guess it’s fitting since the +AO recently topped the previous all-time record set in February 1990.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Feb 1 to Feb 13
Missing Count
1 2020-02-13 42.6 0
2 1990-02-13 42.2 0
3 1991-02-13 40.8 0
4 1999-02-13 40.5 0
5 1998-02-13 39.5 0
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Tonight will probably be the coldest night of the season. 

12F is the current forecast. Afterwards there'll be one more cold shot next week and then we should fully moderate and finally put this miserable winter behind us. 

It'll be interesting to see how the current pattern reacts with the seasonal changes though. There's some talks of a cold April a la 1990 and that seems very possible at this juncture. Course by then it'd be useless and just lead to a chilly/wet month. 

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Models really dry things out over the next 10 days with high pressure dominating. Only 1 cutter showing up for next Tuesday. It will be a nice break from all the clouds and showers during the first half of the month. 
 

ADD8D149-EDBC-4820-BF6B-EFC704CE035F.thumb.png.7836c5d32f935d21e85f8e926edbc0ce.png

05CF3C33-CCF0-4382-B87D-243C88D0AEDD.thumb.png.91e7677e7a8b6bdadb1684b0dec19a0b.png

 

 

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Temperatures were falling through the 20s this evening in the northern Middle Atlantic region. The minimum temperature tomorrow morning could fall into the teens in New York City and Philadelphia. Readings in the lower teens and perhaps single digits are likely outside both cities.

But then winter's latest effort to take hold will fail again. Warmer air will quickly return. It is likely that the second half of February will be warmer than normal overall. During that time, cold shots will likely be of a short duration.

Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through at least the first three weeks of February. There is a greater but still fairly low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm.

Winter 2019-2020 became the 19th winter on record that saw New York City receive less than 6" seasonal snowfall through February 14. Mean total snowfall for the 18 prior cases was 12.5" vs. the historic mean figure of 28.8". In addition, 39% of such winters wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall vs. 6% of winters in the historic record. 89% of such winters wound up with less than 20" seasonal snowfall vs. 31% of winters in the historic record. Just 11% of such winters wound up with 30" or more seasonal snowfall vs. 41% of winters in the historic record.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around February 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions.

The SOI was -17.05 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.686.

No significant stratospheric warming is likely through February 22, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively suppressed. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS into the third week of February.

On February 13, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.234 (RMM). The February 12-adjusted amplitude was 1.122.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 89% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February and an implied 55% probability that February 2020 will be among the 10 warmest such months on record.

Finally, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-12 AO average is +2.926. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region.

 

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lowest minimum so far this winter is 16 set back in December...the record highest winter minimum in Central Park is 19 set in 2001-02...

winter...winters min temp...

2001-02......19...Feb/Mar...

2019-20......16...Dec...

1931-32......15...Mar...

1974-75......15...Jan...

1997-98......14...Jan...

2000-01......14...Dec...

2005-06......14...Dec...

2016-17......14...Jan/Mar...

1936-37......13...Dec...

2009-10......13...Jan...

2011-12......13...Jan...

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1 minute ago, uncle W said:

lowest minimum so far this winter is 16 set back in December...the record highest winter minimum in Central Park is 19 set in 2001-02...

winter...winters min temp...

2001-02......19

2019-20......16

1931-32......15

1974-75......15

1997-98......14

2000-01......14

2005-06......14

2016-17......14

1936-37......13

2009-10......13

2011-12......13

Met winter?

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