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February 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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2 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

If you take out the first three weeks of December where are we in relation to the warmest winter ever?

We have to be close right?

I certainly never remember winter that has just been so consistently warm every day

I think it was @bluewave who posted that the city hasn't dipped below 20 since December 19th. That's a remarkable stat to go 2 months in the middle of winter with zero below 20 readings. Has that ever happened in a 2 month winter span? Even '97-'98 and '11-'12 had a few cold spells I believe.

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17 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

I think it was @bluewave who posted that the city hasn't dipped below 20 since December 19th. That's a remarkable stat to go 2 months in the middle of winter with zero below 20 readings. Has that ever happened in a 2 month winter span? Even '97-'98 and '11-'12 had a few cold spells I believe.

This is the first time since 31-32. Even 01-02 dropped to 19 degrees from 12-20 to 02-12.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Lowest Min Temperature Dec 20 to Feb 12
Missing Count
1 1932-02-12 21 0
2 2020-02-12 20 1
3 2002-02-12 19 0
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15 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

JFK:
1972-73 1.6"
1997-98 3.6"
2011-12 3.7"
2001-02 4.5"
1994-95 7.9"
1988-89 8.2"
2006-07 8.5"
1989-90 9.6"
1996-97 9.8"

NYC:
1972-73 2.8"
2001-02 3.5"
1918-19 3.8"
1931-32 5.3"
1997-98 5.5"
2011-12 7.4"
1877-78 8.1"
1988-89 8.1"
1900-01 9.1"

Ouch, thats a lot of years (notice how many of them are in the 80s lol, no wonder we had no snow days!)  What does JFK have so far this season?

Do you have a list for MPO or Mt Pocono too Don?  I dont think they had any below 10" but I want to see if they had any in the 10-15 inch range, because I remember it was pretty snowless around there back in the 80s when I used to go there during the winter.  And where does MPO rank this year?  Thanks!

 

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5 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

I just looked at the historic NYC snowfall records and am shocked how bad 1970 through 2000 actually we're.

ONLY 3 above average snowfall winters in 30 years!

Makes this 2 year below average run look great.

we didn't even have a 30 inch seasonal snowfall year between 1978-79 and 1992-93!

 

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6 hours ago, bluewave said:

Other than a brief Arctic shot on Saturday, all the cold continues to remain locked up over Alaska and Greenland. This has been the pattern since December 22nd. We continue to see the record +AO pattern extend right into late February. On the Pacific side, we are seeing the most extreme +EPO since 2012.
 

 

Is this more like 1988-89 or 1989-90 or 90-91?

Looks like we're reliving the "greatest hits" from the late 80s and early 90s!

 

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4 hours ago, PB-99 said:

 

There`s convection all over. The convection in the Maritime Pacific probably inserts it`s forcing into the pattern more than the convection in the I/O. 

And with the AO so strong it just bullies the mid latitude pattern regardless. 

any idea on whats causing the AO to be so strong?

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Another warmer than normal day and more signs of spring. The coming cold shot will be short-lived and warmer than normal conditions should quickly return.

Photo courtesy of my brother in Mamaroneck, NY from a short time ago:

Mamaroneck02122020.jpg

I remember crocuses came out here in February in 2002 too!

 

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32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is the first time since 31-32. Even 01-02 dropped to 19 degrees from 12-20 to 02-12.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Lowest Min Temperature Dec 20 to Feb 12
Missing Count
1 1932-02-12 21 0
2 2020-02-12 20 1
3 2002-02-12 19 0

too bad we'll break that this week :( useless cold....

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3 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

If you take out the first three weeks of December where are we in relation to the warmest winter ever?

We have to be close right?

I certainly never remember winter that has just been so consistently warm every day

well technically winter starts in the fourth week of December so we have been warm pretty much all winter

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6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts...

While attention has been fixed on the record-setting AO+ regime that saw the AO reach a preliminary all-time record of +6.342, another development that has occurred in the eastern Pacific has increased the probability of a warmer than normal March. That development also suggests that any snowfall in the Middle Atlantic region after February could be limited.

ENSO Region 1+2 has warmed dramatically over the past two weeks. During the week centered around January 22, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and for January 2020 it was -0.04°C. During the most recent period (week centered around February 5), that anomaly had risen to +0.8°C.

Both the 2/12/2020 0z EPS and GEFS suggest that the AO will return to extremely positive values near or above +4.000 around February 20.

In addtion, based on the outcomes following the 1989 and 1990 super AO+ regimes in February and assuming a secondary peak at extremely positive values (+4.000 or above) around February 20 +/- a few days, March will likely begin with a noted absence of blocking in the AO+ region. The evolution of the February AO+ regime would argue that the AO would likely remain positive for much of March.

During the 1981-2019 period, there were seven cases where the February ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increased by +0.5° over the January average: 1989, 1991, 2002, 2006, 2008, 2011, and 2012. Five (71%) of those cases had an AO+ to end February and start March: 1989, 2002, 2008, 2011, and 2012.

The March composite 500 mb and temperature anomalies for those five cases are below:

March2020-ENSOCluster1-Composites.jpg

Mean March-April snowfall for New York City for those five cases was 0.7" (skewed by 2.5" in March-April, 1989) and 0.5" in Philadelphia (skewed by 2.4" in March-April 1989).

It does remind me of the late 80s and early 90s.... any ideas on whats causing this record setting +AO pattern?

 

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21 hours ago, bluewave said:

Imagine living an a place where you could have almost 100” of snow to date during your 4th warmest winter.



 
Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Dec through Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Season
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2015-2016 21.6 0
2 2009-2010 21.0 0
3 2001-2002 19.3 0
4 2019-2020 18.2 19
5 1959-1960 17.7 0

 

Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Oct through Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Season
Total Snowfall 
Missing Count
2019-2020 92.8 233

looks like our wonderfully snowy 2000s and 2010s winters will migrate there .....

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Ouch, thats a lot of years (notice how many of them are in the 80s lol, no wonder we had no snow days!)  What does JFK have so far this season?

Do you have a list for MPO or Mt Pocono too Don?  I dont think they had any below 10" but I want to see if they had any in the 10-15 inch range, because I remember it was pretty snowless around there back in the 80s when I used to go there during the winter.  And where does MPO rank this year?  Thanks!

 

3.8” at JFK.

MPO hasn’t measured snow since 1988-89. Up to then, its lowest seasonal snowfall was 22.1” during winter 1954-55.

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18 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

3.8” at JFK.

MPO hasn’t measured snow since 1988-89. Up to then, its lowest seasonal snowfall was 22.1” during winter 1954-55.

I started going there in 1986 it would be interesting to see what's been going on there since then.  I dont think Scranton is representative of the area since it's in a valley and further away from it than Allentown is.  Hazelton is closer than either but I dont think they measure there?  But since Scranton is the only other official measuring location in the area, do you have any data for them of under 10" snowfall seasons and where they are at so far this season?  Thanks, Don!

 

 

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

any idea on whats causing the AO to be so strong?

There has been some research that the IOD could possibly impact the NAO and AO. Maybe the record +IOD from November into December was in some way responsible. Some of our other extremely +AO +NAO events were preceded by strong MJO 2-3 forcing. It could be that the IO standing wave from November into mid-December played a role. But we’ll  probably need a a study to confirm.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI3577.1?mobileUi=0&

The dominant pattern of atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic sector is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Since the 1970s the NAO has been well characterized by a trend toward its positive phase. Recent atmospheric general circulation model studies have linked this trend to a progressive warming of the Indian Ocean. Unfortunately, a clear mechanism responsible for the change of the NAO could not be given. This study provides further details of the NAO response to Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. This is done by conducting experiments with a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model (OAGCM). The authors develop a hypothesis of how the Indian Ocean impacts the NAO.

 

By analyzing model simulations we found that the South Asian jet can act as a waveguide with circumglobal teleconnection in the Northern Hemisphere. The meridional wind pattern, associated with this circumglobal teleconnection, is connected with the North Atlantic Oscillation. A warming/cooling in the Indian Ocean, especially in the western Indian Ocean, produces anomalies in the South Asian jet. The waveguiding effect of the South Asian jet carries the perturbation into the North Atlantic sector and leads to a NAO-like response.

The observed recent positive trend in the NAO has likely contributions from the observed warming in the Indian Ocean. Our analysis—confirmed by the observed trend in the western South Asian jet and the anomaly pattern of the 300-hPa winter meridional wind—indicates that the change of the NAO may be via the circumglobal pattern.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0502.1?mobileUi=0

The teleconnection patterns associated with phases 3 and 7 are also important for Atlantic blocking. In agreement with Lin et al. (2009) and Cassou (2008), 10–15 days after MJO phase 3 a positive NAO pattern develops over the Atlantic. We find that Atlantic blocking frequency is more than halved in association with the positive NAO pattern. In contrast, MJO phase 7 is followed by a negative NAO pattern, which coincides with a high-amplitude wavelike flow and an increase in blocking frequency. Atlantic blocking frequency is almost doubled following phase 7, reaching +16.5% relative to climatology. Approximately 14%–15% of all DJF Atlantic blocked days follow phase 7.

 

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It will be interesting to see how close this gets to the record.

https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/wea.2097

The Braer storm of January 1993 was the deepest ever recorded cyclone outside of the Tropics with a minimum core pressure of 914mbar, but due to its track between Scotland and Iceland it caused little damage and was never intensively examined. Here we present a study of the dynamics of the storm using modern re‐analysis data from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and sensitivity studies with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to quantify influences of diabatic heating and Greenland's topography on the track and rapid deepening of the storm.

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Tomorrow will very likely see temperatures top out in the 50s in much of the Middle Atlantic region. However, a brief shot of modified Arctic air will move into the region for Friday and Saturday. The lowest temperatures could fall into the teens in New York City and lower teens and perhaps single digits outside the City.

Afterward, warmer air will quickly return. It is likely that the February 15-21 period will be warmer than normal overall. Any cold shots would likely be of a short duration. The general above normal temperature regime could persist afterward.

Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through at least the first three weeks of February. There is a greater but still fairly low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around February 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions.

The SOI was -9.03 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.286.

No significant stratospheric warming is likely through February 20, but the upper stratosphere above 5 mb will likely warm toward mid-February. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively suppressed. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS into the third week of February.

On February 11, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.204 (RMM). The February 10-adjusted amplitude was 1.540.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 86% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February and an implied 56% probability that February 2020 will be among the 10 warmest such months on record.

Finally, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-12 AO average is +2.926. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region.

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