bluewave Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 13 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is +6.342. That surpassed the daily record of +4.492 for February 10, which was set in 1990. It would also surpass the all-time record high figure of +5.911, which was set on February 26, 1990. Daily records go back to 1950. It’s no exaggeration to say that this is off the chart. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 21 minutes ago, bluewave said: It’s no exaggeration to say that this is off the chart. Yet another extreme record set over past few years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Yet another extreme record set over past few years. They are coming so fast that it’s easy to lose track of them. Just a remarkably unfavorable MJO, +EPO, and +AO combination this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 12 minutes ago, bluewave said: They are coming so fast that it’s easy to lose track of them. Just a remarkably unfavorable MJO, +EPO, and +AO combination this winter. Maybe the complete opposite will occur within a few years and we'll set new snowfall records. Still it's amazing how despite having the worst teleconnections possible that we still have more snowfall than a handful of other years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Maybe the complete opposite will occur within a few years and we'll set new snowfall records. Still it's amazing how despite having the worst teleconnections possible that we still have more snowfall than a handful of other years. BDR here has 10-11 inches which is amazing given the horrid pattern...we got 4 in the Jan storm and some smaller stuff in early December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Mjo on the euro is still different than the gefs. Gefs takes into 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Maybe the complete opposite will occur within a few years and we'll set new snowfall records. Still it's amazing how despite having the worst teleconnections possible that we still have more snowfall than a handful of other years. We know that the El Niño trying to come on with a Niña-like background pattern hasn’t worked last 2 winters. So maybe a stronger La Niña or strong enough El Niño will be needed to change things up next year. But who really knows with all these extremes competing with each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 24 minutes ago, bluewave said: They are coming so fast that it’s easy to lose track of them. Just a remarkably unfavorable MJO, +EPO, and +AO combination this winter. The 2020s have just gotten started. Already, the new decade has set a number of records: 1. Warmest January on record globally (Copernicus) and first above freezing January mean temperature in Moscow. Boston's warmest January day on record (74°). 2. Highest AO figure on record. 3. All-time record high temperature of 65° in Antarctica. 4. Record amplitude for the MJO's Phase 5. Records likely to be set at some point this decade include: 1. Highest global mean temperature anomaly (all the major datasets: Berkeley, Copernicus, GISS, HadCrut, and NOAA) -- probably during multiple years. 2. Lowest summer Arctic sea ice minimum extent. At the same time, one can expect numerous daily and monthly record high temperatures in many parts of the world. Some areas will likely set all-time records. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Mjo on the euro is still different than the gefs. Gefs takes into 7. The ECMWF has taken a step toward the GEFS, as it now brings the MJO into Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.000 or above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The ECMWF has taken a step toward the GEFS, as it now brings the MJO into Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.000 or above. Roundy plots have it collapsing in 6/7 then a new wave forming in p1/2. We also have a Kelvin wave in p8. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Picked up 1.5 inches overnight, total of 19 for season. 2 hour delay for schools. Three straight days of measurable snow. Yes, it can snow with a crappy airmass in a crappy pattern. Right now 37 with light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 7 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Picked up 1.5 inches overnight, total of 19 for season. 2 hour delay for schools. Three straight days of measurable snow. Yes, it can snow with a crappy airmass in a crappy pattern. Right now 37 with light rain. Only if you are north of 84 in a pattern like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 7 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Picked up 1.5 inches overnight, total of 19 for season. 2 hour delay for schools. Three straight days of measurable snow. Yes, it can snow with a crappy airmass in a crappy pattern. Right now 37 with light rain. Eh, two coatings followed by 1.5" of blink-and-you-miss-it slush after three weeks without a flake is pretty consistent with crappiness. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: Only if you are north of 84 in a pattern like this. This is true. I'm 20 miles north of 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Eh, two coatings followed by 1.5" of blink-and-you-miss-it slush after three weeks without a flake is pretty consistent with crappiness. Doesn't matter, it all counts. Looked beautiful early this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: Only if you are north of 84 in a pattern like this. Exactly, even here we have had no accumulating snow in weeks, forget the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 33 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Picked up 1.5 inches overnight, total of 19 for season. 2 hour delay for schools. Three straight days of measurable snow. Yes, it can snow with a crappy airmass in a crappy pattern. Right now 37 with light rain. When we start celebrating slush, you know it is a bad winter 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 8 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: When we start celebrating slush, you know it is a bad winter I'll take anything at this point. It looked great at 6am, not so much now with the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 22 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: Exactly, even here we have had no accumulating snow in weeks, forget the city. True. We have to go all the way back to 2008 for no accumulations between 1-20 and 2-10. At least we got the whiteout squall last winter during this period. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Snowfall Jan 20 to Feb 10 Missing Count 2020-02-10 T 1 2019-02-10 0.4 0 2018-02-10 1.5 0 2017-02-10 10.4 0 2016-02-10 30.1 0 2015-02-10 19.8 0 2014-02-10 26.5 0 2013-02-10 13.7 0 2012-02-10 4.3 0 2011-02-10 25.8 0 2010-02-10 12.3 0 2009-02-10 7.3 0 2008-02-10 T 0 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: Roundy plots have it collapsing in 6/7 then a new wave forming in p1/2. We also have a Kelvin wave in p8. Convection everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 46 with heavy rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 4 hours ago, HeadInTheClouds said: I'll take anything at this point. It looked great at 6am, not so much now with the rain. I headed to New Paltz today and they have a nice few inches of white everywhere 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: I headed to New Paltz today and they have a nice few inches of white everywhere I lived there for a few years and am planning on going there Thursday if the storm is far enough south to front end thump there, I'll go anywhere to see snow at this point because I've pretty much accepted it's not happening in my immediate area this winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 9 hours ago, doncat said: Euro really backed off the cold shot for end of week...went from mid 20's on Friday to low 40's, and lowest Temps from low teens to low 20's by Sat. am. Other models do still show the colder outlook however. Wow that would be interesting if it verifies and we are low 40s on Friday. I actually rather this cold shot modify because it is useless, we rain before and we rain after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 5 hours ago, bluewave said: Only if you are north of 84 in a pattern like this. Wow pretty crazy that Philadelphia doesn't even have an inch of snow all winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 7 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Wow pretty crazy that Philadelphia doesn't even have an inch of snow all winter. If we get to the end of next week and are not seeing actual, verifiable signs of a true major pattern change, not just fantasy day 15 model runs, I think it’s over. We will be heading into the final days of February at that point and once you get to 3/15, it’s over for the most part, minus some very anomalous event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 14 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Wow that would be interesting if it verifies and we are low 40s on Friday. I actually rather this cold shot modify because it is useless, we rain before and we rain after. 12z has it back again...delayed a bit but temps well down in the teens by Sat am and mostly staying in the 20's during the day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, snowman19 said: If we get to the end of next week and are not seeing actual, verifiable signs of a true major pattern change, not just fantasy day 15 model runs, I think it’s over. We will be heading into the final days of February at that point and once you get to 3/15, it’s over for the most part, minus some very anomalous event Agree, I don't expect anything to change and if the pattern change is in March it won't do much at least for the city, places to the NW can still cash in during March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 1 hour ago, HVSnowLover said: Agree, I don't expect anything to change and if the pattern change is in March it won't do much at least for the city, places to the NW can still cash in during March This +EPO /+AO pattern looks stuck in place until further notice. Just a brief Arctic shot this weekend within a continuing warm pattern. Last March saw some improvement due to the big -EPO. But who knows this year with the way things have been going. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Just based on the radar and the weather outside I'm thinking the rain forecast is going to bust pretty low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now