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Feb To Forget? - 2020 Discussion

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2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Why would anyone even think about tossing in the towel when nothing has come onshore yet out west?

Because it's an emotional response and not a scientific one.

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7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

What ever analogy we want to use....too many turds in the bowl; or too many pigs in the feed sack, it's all the same.  Too much energy/SW's that never ever come together like they should for a strong system by us.  I said this yesterday when Dendrite posted the picture of all the SW's all over the place, and he said good luck trying to figure this out.  Those rarely deliver imo.  

The Euro will seal the deal in 90 minutes or so, it'll be east/a whiff for sure, and that's gonna be that.  

 

Sure, Yes this can turn around like boxing day did on a dime; but the Tenor so far is for disappointment this winter...and this is following right along with that idea...to a "T."   If this indeed does go down the toilet like its looking like currrently.  I'm ready for Spring around here for sure.   

As things stand right now, every winter forecast that called for a cold and snowy winter stands as a complete fail.  There is still some time left to raise the grade from an F to a D/C but the time to do so is getting shorter with each passing day.

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5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Why would anyone even think about tossing in the towel when nothing has come onshore yet out west?

we get all kinds of conflicting data on this.. has to be onshore or not..i guess i wonder how the west coast mets forecast if all their weather is affected by stuff offshore.. maybe I'm simplyfing things.. IDK. 

 

maybe that is it.. west coast mets have less to worry about? northern streams and southern streams.. interactions etc

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Dude, relax. Head your own advice...”it’s 4/5 days out anything can happen”.

You're correct.  But it just has that "Feel" unfortunately.....the feeling of the season has showed it's hand....and it can't be changed.   I know, it's a stupid idea, but it has that feel.   I hope I'm wrong.  

 

You like to Hedge Berg...what's your call for the upcoming 12z Euro?  I think it will be a Whiff....more east and progressive due to the western ridge flattening out...not good signs.  

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I think it’s been so long since we’ve been in  a north trend pattern. First one in maybe 2 years. Have people forgotten how these work? They start as hits, then go way East then they trend back NW in the days leading up until precipitation issues happen in coastal regions. Why is this so hard?

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Because it's an emotional response and not a scientific one.

And emotions are certainly running high in here this morning, Ha ha, I would take what the Ukie is selling and run to the bank with it.

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4 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

sure, I just thought it was funny, mods can be weenies also.  You are free to defend the honor of the mods, sorry for my interruption 

Mods are most definitely weenies. Never said they weren’t. I don’t get your little passive aggressive last statement but carry on.

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4 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

we get all kinds of conflicting data on this.. has to be onshore or not..i guess i wonder how the west coast mets forecast if all their weather is affected by stuff offshore.. maybe I'm simplyfing things.. IDK. 

How modeling has been i certainly wouldn't toss anything out still being 90+ hrs away from the start of this event, We've had changes right up to 18-36 hrs out all winter on these storms so far, Grant most have been for the worst but at some point you have to get one to break the right way.

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Mods are most definitely weenies. Never said they weren’t. I don’t get your little passive aggressive last statement but carry on.

it's not passive at all.. just poking at you for fun.. damm. sensitive folks around here.

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Ukie is almost an inv trough look. Not a big CCB with conveyor belts...more like a narrow area of forcing. 

Still a lot of time left. Normally you'd expect a NW push from a multitude of things like latent heat release and data sampling perhaps making the parent s/w modeled stronger...but the flow is progressive. That may limit those examples.

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Just now, dryslot said:

How modeling has been i certainly wouldn't toss anything out still being 90+ hrs away from the start of this event, We've had changes right up to 18-36 hrs out all winter on these storms so far, Grant most have been for the worst but at some point you have to get one to break the right way.

The last event literally trended 600 miles northwest in about a 48 hour period. Granted, slower pattern....but this doesn't need 600 miles either.

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3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

You're correct.  But it just has that "Feel" unfortunately.....the feeling of the season has showed it's hand....and it can't be changed.   I know, it's a stupid idea, but it has that feel.   I hope I'm wrong.  

 

You like to Hedge Berg...what's your call for the upcoming 12z Euro?  I think it will be a Whiff....more east and progressive due to the western ridge flattening out...not good signs.  

I don’t know what the euro will do lol but I’ve been hedging since day 1 this system is for the SE or E folks. Nothing has changed so no reason to get emotional this could miss for us. 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I think it’s been so long since we’ve been in  a north trend pattern. First one in maybe 2 years. Have people forgotten how these work? They start as hits, then go way East then they trend back NW in the days leading up until precipitation issues happen in coastal regions. Why is this so hard?

Well you were on the rains to quebec the other day, and Toss every model train as well.  Now you flipped and flopped like the fish out of water.   I agree that lots of these trend away at this midrange point only to come back again with a vengeance.  But this has other things working against it too...like too many S/W's in the flow that are mucking up the waters so to speak. And a ridge that's flattening now it seems...these are distinct issues that can work against this coming back.   It's not over, but it's not looking promising or encouraging either at 12z.   I'm sick of 1-3" of slop...I'm with Ray, if it aint gonna be a Warning situation, let's have it be sunny and 45-50!  

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The last event literally trended 600 miles northwest in about a 48 hour period. Granted, slower pattern....but this doesn't need 600 miles either.

Exactly, Fast flow but that does not mean we can't end up with something that becomes more favorable for some on this forum, Just need to let it play out and see where it goes over the next couple days, lot of moving parts that need to come together.

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ukie is almost an inv trough look. Not a big CCB with conveyor belts...more like a narrow area of forcing. 

Still a lot of time left. Normally you'd expect a NW push from a multitude of things like latent heat release and data sampling perhaps making the parent s/w modeled stronger...but the flow is progressive. That may limit those examples.

Also lessens the western extent that this can probably get too.

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14 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

As things stand right now, every winter forecast that called for a cold and snowy winter stands as a complete fail.  There is still some time left to raise the grade from an F to a D/C but the time to do so is getting shorter with each passing day.

I had slightly above normal snowfall, and with the exception of not being extreme enough with the magnitude of the anticpated warmth in January, its gone very well. I didn't expect the next big event until between 2/17 and 3/2, so this going to the fish would be a victory for me as far as timing goes.

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12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ukie is almost an inv trough look. Not a big CCB with conveyor belts...more like a narrow area of forcing. 

Still a lot of time left. Normally you'd expect a NW push from a multitude of things like latent heat release and data sampling perhaps making the parent s/w modeled stronger...but the flow is progressive. That may limit those examples.

The inverted trough look is the model's of way of reconciling the formerly robust solution with the increasingly likely reality of a miss.

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13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

 

You like to Hedge Berg...what's your call for the upcoming 12z Euro?  I think it will be a Whiff....more east and progressive due to the western ridge flattening out...not good signs.  

Forecasting what a weather model will forecast seems like an interesting way to go about it. 

Why would we forecast what a model will forecast?

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13 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Patterns are hard to break - cutter, whiff, cutter, whiff.....  Next week looks like another cutter.

Maybe it can become another 3-6” SWFE!!! 

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Forecasting what a weather model will forecast seems like an interesting way to go about it. 

Why would we forecast what a model will forecast?

It’s kinda like a prop bet? Why only try to predict the outcome of the ballgame when you can predict all the minutiae too.

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15 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I don’t know what the euro will do lol but I’ve been hedging since day 1 this system is for the SE or E folks. Nothing has changed so no reason to get emotional this could miss for us. 

Hopefully at least get some wind to dry out the fairways.

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5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Forecasting what a weather model will forecast seems like an interesting way to go about it. 

Why would we forecast what a model will forecast?

Just trying to have a little fun....we've done this before on here in the past.   I feel it's going to show a miss OTS/weaker set up over all.  That's my feeling on it.   

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Odds of a miss have increased, but no one should be resigned to this yet. There is plenty of time for precip type issues to erupt on guidance. This can happen fast with a multitude of SWs that have yet to be completely sampled in a lightning fast flow.

That is my objective opinion.

Good Post.  I agree.  Just be nice if this could come together to give a decent Warning event to the area.   Very discouraging to winter enthusiasts when everything continually trends in a negative direction all the time.  Doesn't need to be an 18" er or anything..but a solid Warning event would be some fun for a change.   But it'll do whatever it wants so I get it. 

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Odds of a miss have increased, but no one should be resigned to this yet. There is plenty of time for precip type issues to erupt on guidance. This can happen fast with a multitude of SWs that have yet to be completely sampled in a lightning fast flow.

That is my objective opinion.

Semantics aside ...believe most everyone is on the same page if you asked them the odds for a 6” snowstorm in Boston out of this . Maybe 1/8 or so 

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Just now, WinterWolf said:

Good Post.  I agree.  Just be nice if this could come together to give a decent Warning event to the area.   Very discouraging to winter enthusiasts when everything continually trends in a negative direction all the time.  Doesn't need to be an 18" er or anything..but a solid Warning event would be some fun for a change.   But it'll do whatever it wants so I get it. 

I think we will have another favorable period for a biggie....sure, the pattern will not be perfect and will be flawed, but serviceable imo. We aren't on the verge of spring...that is frustration speaking for some.

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39 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

As things stand right now, every winter forecast that called for a cold and snowy winter stands as a complete fail.  There is still some time left to raise the grade from an F to a D/C but the time to do so is getting shorter with each passing day.

 Can you show me who called cold and snowy?

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