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Feb To Forget? - 2020 Discussion

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I don't really see how things change moving through February. I think winter is cooked...it's not a good sign to see hardly cold air into Canada moving into February...then when you think about the processes which need to take place to completely change this and how much time is involved...we're past climo and all of a sudden we're kissing the equinox. Heck...there are times next week the -10C line at 850 is well into northern Canada.

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its like Jeffrey Dahmer lecturing an ethics committee.

HA hahahahaha ...  

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If that s/w in the SW parks itself at a Tijuana Tequila Bar, we may be looking at a more northern steam driven Miller B re-developer.  The earlier it hits the bar, the better as it would promote more downstream troughing over the east.

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21 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Could sun tan on top of the hot tub next week

image.thumb.png.28e78c60537953a686d831e45416ab59.png

Awful...Unless you're Dr. Dews.  He feeds on anything opposite of snow and cold, so at least one person likes that look.

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7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I don't really see how things change moving through February. I think winter is cooked...it's not a good sign to see hardly cold air into Canada moving into February...then when you think about the processes which need to take place to completely change this and how much time is involved...we're past climo and all of a sudden we're kissing the equinox. Heck...there are times next week the -10C line at 850 is well into northern Canada.

Looks like that changes drastically if ensembles are correct....they could be wrong of course, but I don't see Canada with above normal temps after about 2/4 or 2/5.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Looks like that changes drastically if ensembles are correct....they could be wrong of course, but I don't see Canada with above normal temps after about 2/4 or 2/5.

That is probably the final chance to drastically change things. If we get closer and that is delayed further it will become very difficult to make things happen in time. The signal for changes in the Pacific have seemed to be pretty consistent, however, the Arctic is not really cooperating...which kinda sucks b/c based on some of the changes in the Pacific we don't need a ton of changes in the Arctic but the look doesn't seem very appealing. Hopefully with the MJO signal weakening that will jump start changes. 

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26 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I don't really see how things change moving through February. I think winter is cooked...it's not a good sign to see hardly cold air into Canada moving into February...then when you think about the processes which need to take place to completely change this and how much time is involved...we're past climo and all of a sudden we're kissing the equinox. Heck...there are times next week the -10C line at 850 is well into northern Canada.

I frankly don't either ... But, I don't have access to any long-lead special regression algorithms at WSI or the government/NCEP back office experimental products either. Ensembles have not been infallible this year - I mean more so than previous years... Tele's with substantive continuity weighting have been blithely shifting passing extendeds into mids ... it's not just operationals doing this. This is more seasonal tenor-reliant I guess.  

For about 15 years there the stratospheric/QBO correlation was more long hand and was the way to go.  You could see if the phase of the QBO was east -vs- west, and also..if it was fading vs strengthening in either, together with stratospheric temperature anomaly behavior during Dec and Jan --> rolling forward tended to parlay pretty well.  Even attempting this old method ...heh, no really impressive.   DEC's QBO ended 1.change but it may not be in time on the fade side...  As far as the strato ..we had a non-propagating warm burst early in the month, but no sign or signature since of downwelling so... subsequent AO modulation would appear unlikely and right now, we are in a week cooler node despite whatever pot-roast the GFS' cluster is trying to serve.  It's just not convincing or in time...  You need 20 to 30 days of lag for SSW to AO modulation so that's the February ball game even if one obtruded in tomorrow. 

So, I don't know where this is coming from - but that's just me.  

My personal hunch is that the rest of year has dicey chances for a bomb, but important not to dismiss it...because one thing that cannot be denied is volatility amid big gradients in thickness between southern Canada and the Arklotex latitudes. So long as that's your powder-keg canvas, it's just a matter how abstract the fractal artist chooses to be. That said, it's just as likely that we do the same dance.. Then, the first sign of boreal height retreat ...we'll need to watch for a big ridge balloon in the east as the cacklers of the HC idiots eat shit in 74 F again ...  Then after that ... the boreal heights warm further, and the flow relaxes, the slosh back of having late latent heat terminating to higher latitudes excites a NAO blocking episode. That then causes the same seasonal lag that's been getting more frequent over the last 10 years... and maybe a late blue deal ...more likely a lot of 44 mist to complete the theft of spring.   

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240 is a snapshot in time....there's a really quick reload in there, but the 5 day mean is already average over Canada...there's already below average temps moving across in the first first burst from 144-192.

Jan28_12zEPS5day.thumb.png.6927fec40ce02cf60b685cba5183ee4e.png

 

Then it goes gangbusters on the reload.

 

 

Jan28_12zEPS276.png

Jan28_12zEPS312.png

Jan28_12zEPS348.png

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20 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Awful...Unless you're Dr. Dews.  He feeds on anything opposite of snow and cold, so at least one person likes that look.

Exactly, a DIT pita in reverse.

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I frankly don't either ... But, I don't have access to any long-lead special regression algorithms at WSI or the government/NCEP back office experimental products either. 

In for about 15 years there there stratospheric/QBO correlation was more long hand and was the way to go.  You could see if the phase of the QBO was east -vs- west, and also..if it was fading vs strengthening in either, together with stratospheric temperature anomaly behavior during Dec and Jan --> rolling forward tended to parlay pretty well.   Even this old method ...heh, no really impressive.   DEC's QBO ended 1.change but it may not be in time on the fade side...  As far as the strato ..we had a non-propagating warm burst early in the month, but no sign or signature since of downwelling so... subsequent AO modulation would appear unlikely and right now, we are in a week cooler node despite whatever pot-roast the GFS' cluster is trying to serve.  It's just not convincing or in time...  You need 20 to 30 days of lag for SSW to AO modulation so that's the February ball game even if one obtruded in tomorrow. 

So, I don't know where this is coming from - but that's just me.  

My personal hunch is that the rest of year has dicey chances for a bomb, but important not to dismiss it...because one thing that cannot be denied is volatility amid big gradients in thickness between southern Canada and the Arklotex latitudes. So long as that's your powder-keg canvas, it's just a matter how abstract the fractal artist chooses to be. That said, it's just as likely that we do the same dance.. Then, the first sign of boreal height retreat ...we'll need to watch for a big ridge balloon in the east as the cacklers of the HC idiots eat shit in 74 F again ...  Then after that ... the boreal heights warm further, and the flow relaxes but then we have NAO blocking episode to cause the same seasonal lag that's been getting more frequent over the last 10 years... and maybe a late blue deal ...more likely a lot of 44 mist to complete the theft of spring.   

It's really hard to see any assistance from the stratosphere or PV at this juncture so we'll have to get help somewhere else. The stratosphere above the Arctic looks rather cold with the PV on the strong side. If zonal winds around 50mb can relax a bit perhaps that can assist with the PV displacing south...but they've been pretty strong this month:

Composite Plot

 

I wish there was more information available regarding the QBO. What's become apparently obvious with the QBO (and just like any other measure of variability) is it's the structure of the wind anomalies and how they're propagating/descending. So while a raw look at the number may have provided hope for some assistance from blocking perhaps the overall structure argued against it. 

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

240 is a snapshot in time....there's a really quick reload in there, but the 5 day mean is already average over Canada...there's already below average temps moving across in the first first burst from 144-192.

Jan28_12zEPS5day.thumb.png.6927fec40ce02cf60b685cba5183ee4e.png

 

Then it goes gangbusters on the reload.

 

 

Jan28_12zEPS276.png

Jan28_12zEPS312.png

Jan28_12zEPS348.png

what's 500 look like? Just judging from that but looks like a gradient-type pattern could setup? 

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37 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

I personally like where we are sitting...a few mild days to start the month, a passing coastal scraper/offshore weekend mess, then milding up for the next cutter.

:blahblah:

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6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It's really hard to see any assistance from the stratosphere or PV at this juncture so we'll have to get help somewhere else. The stratosphere above the Arctic looks rather cold with the PV on the strong side. If zonal winds around 50mb can relax a bit perhaps that can assist with the PV displacing south...but they've been pretty strong this month

I wish there was more information available regarding the QBO. What's become apparently obvious with the QBO (and just like any other measure of variability) is it's the structure of the wind anomalies and how they're propagating/descending. So while a raw look at the number may have provided hope for some assistance from blocking perhaps the overall structure argued against it

There's a phase correlation with the AO ...  I think it's + west - east ?   

Anyway, that's what I was getting at ... and that over the longer term, -AO(+AO) depending on which.  

We have had a +AO the majority of the winter, which hate to say ... fits the QBO.   

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There's a phase correlation with the AO ...  I think it's + west - east ?   

Anyway, that's what I was getting at ... and that over the longer term, -AO(+AO) depending on which.  

We have had a +AO the majority of the winter, which hate to say ... fits the QBO.   

I believe that is correct. 

I just looked at QBO numbers and indeed that does fit the notion for a +AO. (Also the zonal wind map posted verifies +QBO). 

I do remember reading some outlooks talking about the QBO descending to easterly...so many that didn't happen as thought? Or there is a (mis)conception that it  becoming less positive over time would favor blocking...lol...like a weenie wish cast (ohhh yeah the QBO is westerly...but it's becoming less westerly so blocking)

 

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18 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

what's 500 look like? Just judging from that but looks like a gradient-type pattern could setup? 

 

Jan28_12zEPS276H5.png

Jan28_12zEPS324H5.png

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that's not terrible. I see what you mean though about after the first week of February. That's quite the significant change. Now...whether that is valid remains to be seen.

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49 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Awful...Unless you're Dr. Dews.  He feeds on anything opposite of snow and cold, so at least one person likes that look.

He may not be the only one; he has several limited post brethren in the NYC Metro forum. As always ....

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8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

that's not terrible. I see what you mean though about after the first week of February. That's quite the significant change. Now...whether that is valid remains to be seen.

Yeah it could easily not verify....the last big change failed of course.

But if it did verify, that's pretty big cold for the northern tier.

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1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Those are the days I am happy to be 100 miles inland in a valley and 20° warmer than Boston.

It's called May.

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33 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I believe that is correct. 

I just looked at QBO numbers and indeed that does fit the notion for a +AO. (Also the zonal wind map posted verifies +QBO). 

I do remember reading some outlooks talking about the QBO descending to easterly...so many that didn't happen as thought? Or there is a (mis)conception that it  becoming less positive over time would favor blocking...lol...like a weenie wish cast (ohhh yeah the QBO is westerly...but it's becoming less westerly so blocking)

 

I estimated that the descenion of the easterly QBO wave would take place by about February, which represents one factor contributing to an overall less hostile environment for blocking.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I estimated that the descenion of the easterly QBO wave would take place by about February, which represents one factor contributing to an overall less hostile environment for blocking.

Nice...good call. Seems like that's exactly what is happening. 

I think I've read around some saying this happening earlier in winter...unless I completely misread. 

Hell maybe we'll have a blockbuster March...not totally unrealistic and it happened as recently as two years ago 

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