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Feb To Forget? - 2020 Discussion

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11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don't really think the pattern looked anything like Dec '89 anyway. Certainly not for the incredibly long sustained period that year was. We did have a pretty good cold period late Nov/eearly Dec but it lasted about 2-3 weeks and way less intense.

I'm not nearly as much of a fan of ignoring analogs as you are...difference in opinion I guess. Seeing a who's who of past epic snow patterns when looking at analogs of the ensembles in 2015 gave me confidence in a very good period. Maybe you're referring strictly to ENSO though...

Lol, ha...right, there's that too... Did it even look like it - uh...maybe, maybe not.

I wasn't honestly paying attention but then again, I'm admittedly predisposed to eye-rolling with that stuff for the reasons I mentioned related to not being very trusting of analogs, and/or as reliant therein, because of CC. I'm not saying ignore them. I didnt' say that.. I said, in trouble. I'm not sure it is wise to think otherwise, when changing the thermal source and sink mechanisms.  My suspicion is rooted in analytic thinking - not what I want by the way... a distinctive difference to the climate honk-debate.

Anyway, I almost suggest if the temp curve looks similar, it's because sometimes you can flip a coin and get heads twice.  Just can't seem to do that with my gf  

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12z NAM gets into the range of Friday evening now...the differences in H5 between the models even for Friday evening (which isn't entirely that far out there) is insane. Hopefully over these next 24-hours there is some sort of clustering/agreement of the large-scale features. 

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

12z NAM gets into the range of Friday evening now...the differences in H5 between the models even for Friday evening (which isn't entirely that far out there) is insane. Hopefully over these next 24-hours there is some sort of clustering/agreement of the large-scale features. 

There's going to be some shifting as the shortwaves get closer to shore and come onshore...and not the just the shortwaves, but other features like the jet streaks that are going to be pummeling the west coast and affecting the ridging, etc.

 

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12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don't really think the pattern looked anything like Dec '89 anyway. Certainly not for the incredibly long sustained period that year was. We did have a pretty good cold period late Nov/eearly Dec but it lasted about 2-3 weeks and way less intense.

I'm not nearly as much of a fan of ignoring analogs as you are...difference in opinion I guess. Seeing a who's who of past epic snow patterns when looking at analogs of the ensembles in 2015 gave me confidence in a very good period. Maybe you're referring strictly to ENSO though...

Disagree . That period between Nov 8th and Dec 8th had a lot of similarities,  no 2 analogs being exact but hemispherical close enough. Judging by 2 m temp similarity not as cold but analogs are based on upper air 

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why are we talking 89?Doesn't the mid and LR look weenie?

Yeah it looks good. They improved from 12z yesterday a bit.

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9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why are we talking 89?Doesn't the mid and LR look weenie?

We have about a week of good but not liking how it ends

download (27).png

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's going to be some shifting as the shortwaves get closer to shore and come onshore...and not the just the shortwaves, but other features like the jet streaks that are going to be pummeling the west coast and affecting the ridging, etc.

 

It does seem like there is fairly good agreement about how the pattern evolves across the PAC and building of the ridge into the west. Significant differences then occur with how everything evolves downstream. One thing that's been in the back of my mind is how this system evolves in the southeast. Right now models aren't too enthused with the development of convection across the southeast or off the coast but if that were to change that could add to this shortwave mess. 

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Confusing and conflicting? 

I would say that the week from the 3rd to the 9th is when we would have the best chance and hope that SE ridge,negative PNA is transient after. Teleconnections are not that encouraging 

global_nao_2020012800.png

global_epo_2020012800.png

global_ao_2020012800.png

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7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

We have about a week of good but not liking how it ends

download (27).png

BN heights out by Nick in NF. That doesn't necessarily get me thinking tulips and forsythia. Could be some confluence and a gradient type pattern.

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

BN heights out by Nick in NF. That doesn't necessarily get me thinking tulips and forsythia. Could be some confluence and a gradient type pattern.

That's a cold look in New England.

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Maybe this time as we relay off the Pacific ocean over land and into the more physically realized soundings ...we'll actually see that excuse pay off. 

I don't think it is as problematic as it was even as near by as 10 years ago...certainly, comparing the 10 years prior to that.  In the 1990s, it was not that uncommon to see substantive systemic morphology down stream over eastern N/A upon nosing wave mechanics over the west.  Now it just doesn't seem to cause that if at all, because of advances in assimilation and so forth. Satellite soundings are based on electromagnetic measurements and that seems on paper like it's hard to argue too... ha.  I dunno - but the NAM's domain space's western edge cuts right through where this thing's partial mechanics were just entering over the open Pacific over night .. It's got it now.   

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5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

BN heights out by Nick in NF. That doesn't necessarily get me thinking tulips and forsythia. Could be some confluence and a gradient type pattern.

Yea not a torch but not a weenie look. It is winter after all just not a pattern that screams big deep winter.

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1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said:

Also remember, not a good weather model.

icon-all-neng-mslp-0590800.png

icon-all-ecan-total_snow_10to1_cm-0688000.png

That's a solid 6-10" here. Long ways to go but getting there slowly.

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3 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Also remember, not a good weather model.

 

 

Inclined to disagree ... the model explicitly lays out 12 to 17" of snow into the craws of the starving beleaguered, it's a great model.

Kind of like anyone that uses the word snow in here writes at a literary acumen that Shakespeare might be jealous over -

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6 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Also remember, not a good weather model.

 

 

Last I saw it still out scored the GFS

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1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said:

Plus I wouldn't call the gfs a good weather model either. 

Canadians have icon outperforming gfs at 24 h and on par at 120 h at 500. 

Icon has been pretty good around here this winter anecdotally for sensible wx. 

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31 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It does seem like there is fairly good agreement about how the pattern evolves across the PAC and building of the ridge into the west. Significant differences then occur with how everything evolves downstream. One thing that's been in the back of my mind is how this system evolves in the southeast. Right now models aren't too enthused with the development of convection across the southeast or off the coast but if that were to change that could add to this shortwave mess. 

That is critical... really, that's the weight on the dice as far as how things roll out/parlay and come together downstream, ..or not.  

I mentioned earlier, the speed of the flow makes the standard model of ridge pop lending to constructive feed-back downstream and amplitude into the TV ~ longitudes, have problems.  The fastness, it's ablating the ridge's Nward extend post the polar stream trough ejection across sw Canda, and that 'transitively' then lends to less wave space feedback potential - it's really how the speed interferes as a destructive -  that said, if large scale forcing were to just get stronger, the ridge will grow anyway, and then we get that feedback regardless.  

I was just looking at the NAM's la-la range ( ...pretty much anything beyond 10 minutes  out in time for other reasons...), and it really has an unavoidable bomb on the eastern seaboard set up.  That systme approaching the western TV Valley is doing so over a lower latitude relaxed region, where the heights are compressible, such that it won't be absorbed by said velocity/shearing effects... That makes the set up prone to subsume phasing... even if only partial, that would kick back positively and cause that extrapolation to go nuts.  The subsumer? Look over lower Manitoba at 84 hours, and you have two wind flags of 100 kts over a ridge arc, moving at theta across the isohypses up there. That's code for one mother-fer of a powerful polar stream S/W that's partially concealed only by the fact that it is in that position and is thus less identifiable. But when that wind max comes careen down the Minnesota slide, you'll see that dive into the - by then - eastern TV vestigial wave and ...well...that's the mating dance. 

Unfortunately...just as concealed by this lofty prose is the fact that we are still talking about the NAM - so... it's 84 hour depiction is probably used toilet paper in the first placed

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