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DotRat_Wx

Feb To Forget? - 2020 Discussion

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EPS is allowed one swing and a miss it's been pretty consistent overall.  My only concern is GEFS is also east so may indicate the start of something but I wouldn't go into full punt mode yet; still too early imo.

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36 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z eps are coming in east of the 00z run. 

00z EPS looked great. 06z EPS was a let down. Really wish something besides the UKMET & 00z GFS would jump on board. 

Is everything onshore with 12z tomorrow's soundings?

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Looks rather interesting for us in Halifax nova Scotia hello all my name is Shane Macdonald from Halifax nova Scotia, found this weather weenie forum so thought to sign up.  Alot of sleepless nights model watching.  Lol 

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1 minute ago, shanemacdonald23 said:

Looks rather interesting for us in Halifax nova Scotia hello all my name is Shane Macdonald from Halifax nova Scotia, found this weather weenie forum so thought to sign up.  Alot of sleepless nights model watching.  Lol 

Totally impressive out your way. Welcome to the camp we all know why you are here....

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1 minute ago, shanemacdonald23 said:

Looks rather interesting for us in Halifax nova Scotia hello all my name is Shane Macdonald from Halifax nova Scotia, found this weather weenie forum so thought to sign up.  Alot of sleepless nights model watching.  Lol 

Are you Frankie's brother

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Guys... We're right where we want this to be at this range.

1. Harvey is leaning bullish

2. We're seeing more offshore tracks on the ensembles, and a good deal of them are hits.

3. It's still several days out

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd rather a miss than a tuck in a marginal airmass.

I don't understand why it's an either or situation.  If the OP continues OTS how is that good

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1 minute ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Guys... We're right where we want this to be at this range.

1. Harvey is leaning bullish

2. We're seeing more offshore tracks on the ensembles, and a good deal of them are hits.

3. It's still several days out

 

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Keep it east and I'll take my chances.

Yes. 

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I said last night, OP Euro whiffing is concerning because much of the SW interaction is taking place within its 120hr wheelhouse. However I would wait until 12z tomorrow before assuming any clarity, as everything will have been sampled by then.

I would rather risk a whiff than a hug...just me.

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6 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

00z EPS looked great. 06z EPS was a let down. Really wish something besides the UKMET & 00z GFS would jump on board. 

Is everything onshore with 12z tomorrow's soundings?

The last piece of energy looks like it's coming on shore on Thursday morning/aftn

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2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I don't understand why it's an either or situation.  If the OP continues OTS how is that good

The theme seems to be they’d rather partly cloudy than watch it rain while it snows further west.  

Cant say I blame them.  Been a rough decade for Eastern Mass ;).  

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4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I don't understand why it's an either or situation.  If the OP continues OTS how is that good

It's an Miller A. It is notorious for northwest shifts.

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When does any potential major system not go through this east jog Whiff, just after everything shifted west the run before.  It's all fruitless to think either way on what modeling is showing currently.   

 

I realize that Persistent forecasting is not prudent...but the Tenor of the winter has been up and in...or a miss.   This winter doesn't seem to want to produce much since the 1st of Dec., so I'm thinking a miss if we don't get at least a Partial Phaze of some sort.   But it's still too early to say one way or the other...and that's just where we are currently.  Lot's of S/W's running around..lots yet to resolve.   Everything later tmrw or Thursday could go back tucky and west...or be miss altogether.   Long way to go with this one. 

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We need to keep an eye on how the Euro handles that s/w in the SW.  It's been a past bias in the model so let's see if that is still the case.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If I have to sink, I'd rather sunshine than another cold rain.

Simple. Last thing I want is a track along the Jersey shore.

You are honest at least.  

No cold rain while Pickles figures out if he can travel to the Berkshires or Catskills.  

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Why are the consternation and sweats? This is falling into the storms of the 20 teens when they’d be modelled East or OTS, weenies would congrats E Ma or think OTS and they trend NW closer in. This is the perfect storm for that. Textbook . I truly think the coast is going to ultimately have Ptype issues 

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Just now, Bostonseminole said:

of interest.. the ICON shifted east last night.. other models followed ..hmm

Are we ignoring the shift west it had at 06z?

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why are the consternation and sweats? This is falling into the storms of the 20 teens when they’d be modelled East or OTS, weenies would congrats E Ma or think OTS and they trend NW closer in. This is the perfect storm for that. Textbook . I truly think the coast is going to ultimately have Ptype issues 

The past doesn't predict the future 

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