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DotRat_Wx

Feb To Forget? - 2020 Discussion

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I just set the panel on 96 hours over at TT then clicked Prev on the  GFS's 500 mb product some ten clicks and of that many previous cycles ... looks like 7 or 8 were clearly trending toward storm-fan doom.   

Awesome.  Now, ...if somehow this thing comes to pass...then you can really have something to knock the model for.  But maybe this system's destiny is written on the wall, and the GFS will never get any credit - in fact, the opposite in this Lord of the Flies court of public opinion.  

haha.  All this f'n p.o.s. model needs to do is nail one bomb and the world is its oyster - what a red-headed step kid. 

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Que the sad trumpet - 

50 pages for the sole intent of ... wah wah wahhhhhhh. 

Who started the thread - that's gotta be why!

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We don't what is or isn't in the cards yet.

Getting a better idea though. Flags are flying 

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Que the sad trumpet - 

50 pages for the sole intent of ... wah wah wahhhhhhh. 

Who started the thread - that's gotta be why!

Tip if you have a problem, we can meet outside the back door of the bar. bada bing

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GGEM actually looks reasonably similar to the NAM at 78 hours...  NAM has more deep south trough expression though - 

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2 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Tip if you have a problem, we can meet outside the back door of the bar. bada bing

Lol...  Commiseration for the loss - 

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hit him over the head with a Hadley Cell, the force him to read one of his posts from start finish.

There it is!   Stage anger of post mortem 

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Oh, okay - the GGEM at 84 hours looks interesting and suggestive, but it appears to blow its load in the SE with that southern mid level wind max and that runs out the B-clinic instability and strands the deeper trough from being able to do much.  Yeah...'nother zample of too much fast flow.   

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GFS does look like a potentially good setup for severe in the south around 180-hours! No strong EML signals but some EML air may make the ride from Mexico 

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

GFS does look like a potentially good setup for severe in the south around 180-hours! No strong EML signals but some EML air may make the ride from Mexico 

Dude...come on. Go tickle yourself in all the right places in your May 1st countdown. Nobody cares about a lightning strike in Mobile when we are scratching and clawing for a few inches of snow during peak winter climo.

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4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This is kind of a bad time to be heading in the wrong direction IMO... lots of spread still obviously.... but trend isn’t your friend.

Discouraging start to 12z here 

Speed/progressive flow has always been a big issue with this one. It's why I was skeptical of the hugger solutions yesterday.

But this still has room to be a good storm...GFS trended poorly, but GEM got better...they are similar skill.

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9 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This is kind of a bad time to be heading in the wrong direction IMO... lots of spread still obviously.... but trend isn’t your friend.

Discouraging start to 12z here 

I’m sure the gefs will follow suit going SE but you guys are in the realm of a slight nw shift for impact. West folks, AIT for days, will have a much harder time pulling this closer. 

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Where are the tissues

more like towels 

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Dude...come on. Go tickle yourself in all the right places in your May 1st countdown. Nobody cares about a lightning strike in Mobile when we are scratching and clawing for a few inches of snow during peak winter climo.

Funny thing is...unlike all these fake snow threats everyone drools over the severe wx threat will likely verify. 

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