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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020

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56 minutes ago, Tar Heel Snow said:

I'm just gonna allow myself to enjoy this for a bit before I go back to realitygfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_fh246-270.thumb.gif.21ebd16e5ccf82f8b9b1d2358a3b3e4b.gif

Enjoy.

18z gfs for you. 

Weak retreating HP in Canada. Great Lakes low.

18z gfs has been in the funny brownies tonight. 

 

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2 hours ago, FLweather said:

Enjoy.

18z gfs for you. 

Weak retreating HP in Canada. Great Lakes low.

18z gfs has been in the funny brownies tonight. 

 

Pretty accurate run when you look at that warm nose changing it all back to rain as it departs :thumbsdown:

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Gfs para keeps the southern stream pretty active. Almost like a train.  6 chances of rain between now and Christmas. Sadly no cold air around.

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2 hours ago, FLweather said:

Gfs para keeps the southern stream pretty active. Almost like a train.  6 chances of rain between now and Christmas. Sadly no cold air around.

My yard here in the triad is just mush.  And I live on the top of a hill too.  Too late in the season for any sun to dry things out.  And the rain events, while reasonably spaced, are large events.  Cant say I have ever had mud on my shoes after putting up Christmas lights.  I would be quite happy with a dry December.

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I guess no one has looked at the Euro?

I thought it was fun but I really doubt it will be replicated in future runs. Happy to be proven wrong.

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The euro isnt as amped this run(also it's coming in super weird on weatherbell) but does appear to have snow from about a rough line from Columbus, MS to Birmingham to Atlanta to Charlotte. Somehow the snow line skips over the entire upstate. 

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5 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

The euro isnt as amped this run(also it's coming in super weird on weatherbell) but does appear to have snow from about a rough line from Columbus, MS to Birmingham to Atlanta to Charlotte. Somehow the snow line skips over the entire upstate. 

Wonder if all the data didn't come through?

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Considering that it's still out there, the difference of the models. GFS Para,  GFS, CMC, RGEM, Icon all show the same wave. Just different evolutions 

If the northern stream would slow down allow more interaction. Possibility of something forming.

But that wave that drops from the NW to TX/OK roughly 96hr to 120 looks kind of intriguing. 

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Something is brewing next week. Will it be ice, snow or a frigid rain? Stay tuned for tomorrow’s edition of how the models run :lol: 
gfs_asnow_us_40.png&key=99abd9bc40c5ff8a16b00d159054c8242e1a598bd7f1da3ea7f1169f47c76e0f

Got to love the first true Winnie run of the season.


.
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1 minute ago, strongwxnc said:


Got to love the first true Winnie run of the season.


.

I worry about anyone who can not spell weenie.  I’ll be watching you.  

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5 hours ago, FLweather said:

Considering that it's still out there, the difference of the models. GFS Para,  GFS, CMC, RGEM, Icon all show the same wave. Just different evolutions 

If the northern stream would slow down allow more interaction. Possibility of something forming.

But that wave that drops from the NW to TX/OK roughly 96hr to 120 looks kind of intriguing. 

I agree that the day 5 wave could be intriguing! Would need the wave to dig deeper (which it has been trending in that direction since yesterday) but even if we get the precipitation to fall, I do not think there is enough of a cold air source behind it for snow anywhere outside of the mountains. 

Second wave is VERY interesting this far out for now. Excited to see how it evolves on the models tonight and tomorrow 

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I  really like the looks of the wave coming through on Wednesday.  CMC and Euro hinting at a classic CAD wedge event and all models have the mid levels pretty cold behind the Monday morning wave. Definitely something to watch.

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50 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

I  really like the looks of the wave coming through on Wednesday.  CMC and Euro hinting at a classic CAD wedge event and all models have the mid levels pretty cold behind the Monday morning wave. Definitely something to watch.

Uh oh. We have a Burrel siting.  Winnies will be on full alert now.

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Whatever next week is fits neatly into the same category of the Monday system. It has upside, may be worth some token stuff, but a lot of things need to break in the right direction for it to be anything more than that. I would pay attention to how much the associated S/W digs/cuts off and if it keeps the integrity of that cut-off through the SE on today's model runs- some positive developments there would be cool. 

Generally anything progged to put snow down in Oklahoma and moving laterally warrants at least a lazy eye for our Carolina folks.

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36 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

Generally anything progged to put snow down in Oklahoma and moving laterally warrants at least a lazy eye for our Carolina folks.

So true. Worth a watch.  

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The Monday setup doesn't look to be ideal to me with HP still over the Manitoba province.  But as that HP system moves into a more somewhat favorable area we need to watch the S/W moving out of the Rockies on Tuesday.  Right now the 12z GFS progresses this into a Miller B like storm system on Wednesday. However if the energy is able to dig further south that could yield something in the SE.  We shall see.

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The 12z Euro is confirming my thoughts... for now.  Wednesday looks like a better set up for something, particularly in the CAD favored areas.

 

 

12z euro.PNG

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2 hours ago, jjwxman said:

The 12z Euro is confirming my thoughts... for now.  Wednesday looks like a better set up for something, particularly in the CAD favored areas.

 

 

12z euro.PNG

Probably ice.

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5 hours ago, ILMRoss said:

Whatever next week is fits neatly into the same category of the Monday system. It has upside, may be worth some token stuff, but a lot of things need to break in the right direction for it to be anything more than that. I would pay attention to how much the associated S/W digs/cuts off and if it keeps the integrity of that cut-off through the SE on today's model runs- some positive developments there would be cool. 

Generally anything progged to put snow down in Oklahoma and moving laterally warrants at least a lazy eye for our Carolina folks.

 

2 hours ago, jjwxman said:

The Monday setup doesn't look to be ideal to me with HP still over the Manitoba province.  But as that HP system moves into a more somewhat favorable area we need to watch the S/W moving out of the Rockies on Tuesday.  Right now the 12z GFS progresses this into a Miller B like storm system on Wednesday. However if the energy is able to dig further south that could yield something in the SE.  We shall see.

For me I’d be more inclined to put my eggs in one basket for the Wed system, at least for my direct area. Any time HP sitting up top the LP does not make it as far north and east and ends up transferring. Even if WAA overcomes shallow cold, still problematic for sleet/ZR. Any type of wintry precipitation this year would be a huge boost, as last year was just a complete debacle in every facet. 

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1 hour ago, eyewall said:

Probably ice.

I agree :yikes:

1 hour ago, Buddy1987 said:

 

For me I’d be more inclined to put my eggs in one basket for the Wed system, at least for my direct area. Any time HP sitting up top the LP does not make it as far north and east and ends up transferring. Even if WAA overcomes shallow cold, still problematic for sleet/ZR. Any type of wintry precipitation this year would be a huge boost, as last year was just a complete debacle in every facet. 

I agree ^_^

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