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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020

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4 hours ago, msuwx said:

Pet peeve alert....

This is largely a board for weather enthusiasts. It gets very old when the flood of the same, tired, snide comments come in after someone posts a medium-range model map. I think everyone reading this board is aware a single run of a deterministic model (or single ensemble member) will likely never verify in the extended medium range.

But what are people supposed to post? A picture of an overcast sky? The purpose of the board is to discuss whatever there is to discuss, and unfortunately for snow fans, medium-range snapshots are about all we've got. 

End of rant... back to your regularly-scheduled programming.

Great post and TY for ur contributions on this board.

We have some great posters.

Guys like Burrel2, Lookout, & wow.

And there are countless others.

I get why some are disappointed.

But winter's not over regardless of how badly the indices have been.

This is the Southeast and in some cases the deep south.

I'd imagine the vast majority of snowstorms south & east of 85 from NGA to Raleigh happen during bad indices.

Also the models are a tool and should never be the only thing that determines a forecast.

To many novelist take each run verbatim.

 

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That system next Friday, 2/21 looks interesting and talked to an older man up here and he said that this winter reminded him of 1993...but I don't have the resources to 'fact-check' that...but I do remember March 1993...would welcome any resources to check that claim...

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3 hours ago, WeatherHawk said:

That system next Friday, 2/21 looks interesting and talked to an older man up here and he said that this winter reminded him of 1993...but I don't have the resources to 'fact-check' that...but I do remember March 1993...would welcome any resources to check that claim...

0z has a nice little storm for the NC Coast.

gfs_asnow_seus_40.png

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11 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Anyone able to post what the ECMWF showed for the 2/21 

I believe the snowfall maps showed nothing at all for us.

EDIT: yup nothing

 

20200212_070403.jpg

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19 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Anyone able to post what the ECMWF showed for the 2/21 system?

It got suppressed, which isn't such a bad thing, but not an especially cold airmass.

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Apparently NWS Raleigh is now on board with RDU getting blanked for the season according to NPR.

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9 hours ago, eyewall said:

Apparently NWS Raleigh is now on board with RDU getting blanked for the season according to NPR.

There is nothing....and I mean nothing....that would indicate a pattern shift before March 1.  And the odds for RDU / Central Piedmont drop significantly at that point.  So its likely a safe bet. 

Outside of a freak tango of overnight cold and pop-up LP system,  there really arent any ducks on the long range pond.  We cant even get a chunk of the polar vortex to break off and make national news.  

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4 hours ago, kvegas-wx said:

There is nothing....and I mean nothing....that would indicate a pattern shift before March 1.  And the odds for RDU / Central Piedmont drop significantly at that point.  So its likely a safe bet. 

Outside of a freak tango of overnight cold and pop-up LP system,  there really arent any ducks on the long range pond.  We cant even get a chunk of the polar vortex to break off and make national news.  

Yeah it is going to take a lot of time for the sting to wear off. The prospect of the summer ahead doesn't help.

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6 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Why? Is the summer ahead projecting to be a scorcher?  wet? dry?

No way to know but the bugs will be awful.

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11 minutes ago, JoshM said:

Holy weenie run!

EPS control run is almost identical. And the EPS Mean is starting to make some noise. That shortwave not getting cutoff in the SW is a big key in giving this potential legs. 

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Finally, a mythical unicorn storm like the unicorn storms of old.

I would say probably just due to the tendency of the Euro to spin up deep lows out of nowhere. The trough is digging like crazy, the only way this thing works:

500hv.conus.png

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The euro ENS is further NW of the OP and focuses the heaviest accumulations across roughly 85 and north.

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2 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

The euro ENS is further NW of the OP and focuses the heaviest accumulations across roughly 85 and north.

Theres plenty of big dog coastal lows on the ensemble. I'll take the state wide 2+ footer. That member is just pure eye candy.

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This thing might have legs since the Euro and CMC is showing it. GFS lol well it's what I call the flip flop model lol. Maybe will see a better run from it today or we lose this all together ha.

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27 minutes ago, Extreme NEGA said:

This thing might have legs since the Euro and CMC is showing it. GFS lol well it's what I call the flip flop model lol. Maybe will see a better run from it today or we lose this all together ha.

Probably better that the GFS is not showing it yet.

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3 hours ago, jjwxman said:

Glory hallelujah the European model finally throws us a fantasy bone.

B8FD23E9-ECCA-44CE-B73F-29F85721EA80.jpeg

Just browsing this forum but wow! When is the last time South Carolina had anything like this verify?

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