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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020

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28 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The odds continue to increase for a snowless winter for most of the southeast. I would put the odds of a trace or less of snow for Charlotte, GSP, Raleigh and GSO at 70%. 

Based on?

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5 minutes ago, SteveRDU said:

Based on?

the fact that it's not snowing. and the time of year, considering prime climo is..well...now. granted like Mack has been mentioning, February 7th is trying to spoil that. But besides that it hasn't even been close to snow in these areas so far.

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27 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

the fact that it's not snowing. and the time of year, considering prime climo is..well...now. granted like Mack has been mentioning, February 7th is trying to spoil that. But besides that it hasn't even been close to snow in these areas so far.

This. And looking at signs of a SE ridge developing on the OP euro and Eps to a lesser extent. They can be a death knell in February/March 

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1 hour ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

And you're buying this?

It’s the best look we’ve had all winter, and looks like an old school 80s type of storm! I’d rather be chasing fantasy storms, than fantasy pattern changes! I guess this could be both, fingers crossed though!

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15 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

It’s the best look we’ve had all winter, and looks like an old school 80s type of storm! I’d rather be chasing fantasy storms, than fantasy pattern changes! I guess this could be both, fingers crossed though!

Over/Under 36 hours before it’s a rainy apps rubber?

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4 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

Over/Under 36 hours before it’s a rainy apps rubber?

I say by Sunday, we will still be seeing a wintry event for the following Friday! The Euro will be on board and this place will be lit! All the big ones are locked in at long leads!:snowing:

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The 12z GFS is considerably weaker with the 7th system. With that said, more importantly is the overall pattern is still complete crap. The SE Ridge is not going anywhere except for quick relaxations here and there. It just isn't in the cards this year.

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11 minutes ago, eyewall said:

The 12z GFS is considerably weaker with the 7th system. With that said, more importantly is the overall pattern is still complete crap. The SE Ridge is not going anywhere except for quick relaxations here and there. It just isn't in the cards this year.

Widreman??

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12 minutes ago, eyewall said:

The 12z GFS is considerably weaker with the 7th system. With that said, more importantly is the overall pattern is still complete crap. The SE Ridge is not going anywhere except for quick relaxations here and there. It just isn't in the cards this year.

Weaker is fine for me, especially near the transition zone in central NC.  I don't want a real amped storm that pumps in a lot of warm air.

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Looking at the near term...


3k NAM is hinting at flakes with the disturbance late Thursday morning. Looks to be confined north of i40/421 from Boone spreading down into the Piedmont to about GSO. Surface temps in the mid 30s, so I doubt any accumulation. Continued support from some of the globals and the last frame of the RGEM. CMC has been hell bent on this for a few days now, but it pushed precip further up into VA on the latest run.

Something else to track at the very least.

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5 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

The cold is coming according to the GFS, after the 4th or 5th, so fresh cold air, low developing on the front, bingo

I pray you are right

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48 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

Someone from GSP has been in here...

 

Except most of those winters took place before 2010, you know, when it actually got cold every now and then. Most of us haven't even had a close call yet. Not to mention we're well past 1/15 and it's not looking good. Still, theres hope. 

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Radar looks very interesting for the south.

Tomorrow morning still has potential. 

Wet snow for mountains.  Flurries east.

 

 

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23 minutes ago, FLweather said:

Radar looks very interesting for the south.

Tomorrow morning still has potential. 

Wet snow for mountains.  Flurries east.

 

 

It's too bad the track isn't further south or it could be a good event for some. I'm already down to 37 with clear skies, of course it will rise 5-8 degrees when it clouds up but...

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2 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Except most of those winters took place before 2010, you know, when it actually got cold every now and then. Most of us haven't even had a close call yet. Not to mention we're well past 1/15 and it's not looking good. Still, theres hope. 

The coldest week in history for a large swath of NC occurred in the last 3 years. 

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3 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Except most of those winters took place before 2010, you know, when it actually got cold every now and then. Most of us haven't even had a close call yet. Not to mention we're well past 1/15 and it's not looking good. Still, theres hope. 

 

1 hour ago, StantonParkHoya said:

The coldest week in history for a large swath of NC occurred in the last 3 years. 

The 'it doesn't get cold anymore' narrative gets tiresome. 

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32 minutes ago, msuwx said:

 

The 'it doesn't get cold anymore' narrative gets tiresome. 

Agreed, but you have to agree it’s difficult to get snow when a trough sets up in the west for the entirety of winter..every winter 

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6 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

Agreed, but you have to agree it’s difficult to get snow when a trough sets up in the west for the entirety of winter..every winter 

There’s been plenty of snow the last three winters. I’ve seen a 6” snow every winter since 2015-2016 with two storms that have totaled a foot since 2013-2014.

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18 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

The NAM was *this* close to a big storm this run. 

Yep, very close. The high pressure jumped from Canada to Penn down to Delmarva and back to NY with each 3 hour jump. If it could have stayed just a little further south and a tick stronger it could have put a lot more people in the game. The Low is also interesting, very weak until it forms of the SC coast. Need it just a tad bit south. 

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37 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

There’s been plenty of snow the last three winters. I’ve seen a 6” snow every winter since 2015-2016 with two storms that have totaled a foot since 2013-2014.

NC has done well for the most part. The two Dec storms were good to most of you and you all had a good March a couple of years ago. Just hasn't been quite enough of a cold push for areas further south. Almost but not quite. 

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5 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Except most of those winters took place before 2010, you know, when it actually got cold every now and then. Most of us haven't even had a close call yet. Not to mention we're well past 1/15 and it's not looking good. Still, theres hope. 

2 out of the 5 largest January snows in Asheville record history took place from 2010 to present . . . 

 

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